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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West on Saturday. As this occurs, a persistent upper low offshore of Baja California will begin moving eastward. Across the East, a weak upper low is forecast to drift northward offshore of the GA/Carolina coast, while weak ridging develops upstream of this feature across the Southeast. Southerly low-level flow will increase across much of the central U.S. as a surface cyclone gradually deepens over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return is expected across parts of the central/southern Plains, but instability is expected to remain minimal across this region through the period. Low/mid-level moistening may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of AZ/NM. Coverage remains uncertain across this region, but deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support a strong storm or two if deep convection can be sustained. Elsewhere, a broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the central Rockies, where steep midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy may support isolated lightning flashes embedded within larger precipitation areas. To the east, weak convection may spread into coastal NC late Saturday night as the upper low drifts northward, with potential for sporadic lightning flashes into early Sunday morning. ..Dean.. 10/21/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN NEVADA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible in portions of the Midwest where conditions will be breezy but RH will only be marginally critical in a limited area. ..Wendt.. 10/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022/ ...Synopsis... A more progressive pattern develops on Friday as ridging across the western US weakens and a trough deepens across the northern Pacific. Associated with the deepening trough, strong westerly flow aloft will overspread areas from the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies with continued dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northern Nevada and in southern Wyoming. ...Central and Southern Wyoming... Dry downslope flow across south-central Wyoming will support sustained surface winds at 20-25 mph and afternoon relative humidity around 15-20 percent. Locally stronger winds up to 30+ mph may support pockets of extreme fire weather conditions. As these winds look to be fairly localized, a Critical delineation covers the threat well. ...Northern Great Basin... Across northern Nevada, sustained winds around 15-20 mph, relative humidity around 10-15 percent, and ERCs above the 95th percentile will support a Critical delineation. While winds may be marginal in a few areas, ERCs are well above seasonal averages with below normal rainfall in the last month. ...Central Plains... Sustained winds around 15-20 mph and minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of central Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas. Fuels are moderately receptive across much of Oklahoma, worsening into southeastern Kansas. Higher relative humidity around 20-25 percent will be possible across southeastern Kansas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal eastern Florida. ...Discussion... The potential for thunderstorms will continue near the east coast of the Florida Peninsula, although the majority of deeper convection should remain offshore. Relatively moist marine air near the coast and relatively cool mid-level temperatures in association with a Southeast States upper low will support this near-coastal thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur across the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight in association with steepening lapse rates via an amplifying upper-level trough. However, overall thunderstorm probabilities/coverage are expected to remain low (below 10 percent). ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 10/21/2022 Read more

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211456 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Visible satellite imagery suggests that Roslyn is getting better organized, with the formation of a central dense overcast with overshooting tops near the center. A recent GMI overpass indicates these tops are related to a partial eyewall that has formed under the overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain near 55 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. One note is that there seem to be a tongue of dry air wrapping cyclonically around the CDO from the northwest to southeast. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled due to mechanical issues. The recent satellite data suggest that the center is a little south of the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6 kt. Despite this shift, there is little change in the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Roslyn is still expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next couple of days. This will lead to the center passing near or a little west of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory, and the new track lies near or just east of the various consensus models. Since Roslyn is developing a better defined inner core, its current environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures could allow for rapid intensification. One obstacle to that, though, is the dry air currently near the core. The GFS, HRWF, and HMON models forecast this dry air to get mixed out during the next 12-24 h, and based on this premise, the new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast in showing rapid strengthening to a peak intensity of 95 kt before landfall. After landfall, Roslyn is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and although the official forecast shows a remnant low over northern Mexico in 72 hours for continuity, Roslyn will likely dissipate before then. The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane warning along the coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended northward later today. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211456 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 34(40) 44(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 36(42) 15(57) X(57) X(57) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 55(65) 7(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 28(32) 34(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 15(16) 22(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 6 27(33) 15(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MANZANILLO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211455 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

The Platte River was flowing at 16 cubic feet per second in Hall County, south central Nebraska. The limited water flow may not encourage sandhill and whooping cranes to stay long as there was less food in the Platte River for the migratory birds to eat. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), Oct 19, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 20 17:43:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 20 17:43:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Roslyn, located a couple of
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declared a critical drought when the Lovelady and Barton Springs monitor wells dropped below their critical drought triggers. The last time the district was in a critical drought was in October 2013. Limiting water use is essential as wells could run dry, and some wells have already gone dry. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), Oct 20, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING... Parts of the northern Great Basin appear much less likely to see sustained elevated fire weather tomorrow afternoon. Based on frontal position in guidance and increasing mid/upper-level clouds, these areas have been removed from the previous forecast. Strengthening southerly/southwesterly winds at low levels within the southern Plains will lead to elevated fire weather as RH falls to 15-25%. Winds of 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph are possible. Areas of North Texas could see locally elevated conditions, but fuels receptiveness is marginal enough that large fire potential remains low. Similarly, locally elevated conditions may also occur into central/northern Missouri. Fuels are receptive there, but RH falling below 25% is much more uncertain. The forecast remains unchanged elsewhere. ..Wendt.. 10/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... A trough will begin to deepen across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Friday with enhanced west-northwesterly flow spreading across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This enhanced flow in combination with dry conditions will allow for increased fire-spread potential. ...Southern Wyoming... Westerly surface winds sustained at 25-30 mph in combination with afternoon relative humidity around 15-20 percent support introducing a Critical delineation across southern Wyoming. Further north, relative humidity will be more marginal and is well covered by the Elevated risk. ...Northern Great Basin to the Central High Plains... A broad area of sustained winds around 15-20 mph and minimum relative humidity around 15-20% will support an Elevated risk of fire weather conditions across much of the northern Great Basin eastward into the High Plains. Across northern Nevada, winds may be a limiting factor. However, fuels in this region are dry and remain receptive, supporting mention of elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe storms are expected across the U.S. Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken on Friday, though the southern portion of this trough will linger offshore of the FL/GA coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the Northwest through the period. A surface ridge will persist over much of the East, while a surface low is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return will commence over south TX, but buoyancy is expected to remain negligible across this region. Weak convection will be possible across south FL and the FL east coast, but the primary thunderstorm threat is expected to remain offshore. Weak embedded convection will also be possible as precipitation spreads inland across the Northwest in association with the upper-level trough, but very limited buoyancy is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 10/20/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the 48 contiguous states. ...Discussion... The prevalence of continental trajectories and stable conditions will considerably limit convective potential across the Lower 48 today. Any lingering thunderstorms should remain off the coast of southeast Florida. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 10/20/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... As the southwestern ridge begins to lose amplitude, a shortwave disturbance will translate southeastward across portions of the High Plains, bringing enhanced westerly flow amid dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Stronger winds can be expected in the downslope regions of central/eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming where fuels remain very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Central and Eastern Montana... Sustained westerly surface winds at 15-20 mph, along with minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent, are expected across portions of Montana. Fuels across this region are in the 80th-90th percentile with minimal rainfall in the last 7-14 days. These conditions will support Elevated and Critical fire weather delineations. With disagreement in guidance on the overall strength of the winds, the region of highest confidence for a Critical risk will be in the downslope regions downwind of the high terrain in central Montana, where ensemble guidance has highest likelihood of sustained winds of 20 mph. ...Eastern Wyoming... Sustained westerly winds and enhanced downslope flow around 15-20 mph in combination with relative humidity around 15-20 percent are expected across portions of eastern Wyoming Thursday. With marginal relative humidity and receptive fuels, an Elevated delineation is appropriate, though a few stations may briefly approach critical. ...Ohio Valley... Continued windy and dry conditions amid receptive fuels will support an Elevated delineation from western Kentucky northward into southern Illinois and Indiana. Though the winds are a limiting factor, relative humidity around 25-30 percent (locally as low as 20 percent) and ERCs at or above the 95th percentile will support increased risk of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:50:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 728 WTPZ44 KNHC 201449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Convection associated with the cyclone has become a bit better organized since the last advisory, with a strong cluster having developed near the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now near 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system has strengthened, recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggests that multiple low-level swirls are present near the center, indicating that the inner core has not yet tightened up. The initial motion is now 275/5 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the storm. In addition, a deep-layer low pressure area is currently located southwest of California, and west of the ridge. These features are forecast to move slowly eastward during the next few days, with the deep-layer steering flow near Roslyn changing from easterly to southeasterly to southerly and eventually to southwesterly. This evolution should cause the storm to recurve between the ridge and the low and make landfall in western Mexico. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there is some spread regarding how quickly Roslyn will recurve. The GFS is on the right side of the guidance envelope with the center passing near Cabo Corrientes, while the UKMET and ECMWF are farther west. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the center to pass just west of Cabo Corrientes in about 72 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico before 96 h. The new forecast track is near or a little to the east of the consensus models. Roslyn is currently over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear. These conditions are likely to persist for the next 72 h or so, and they should allow Roslyn to steadily intensify. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the possibility of dry air entrainment, and the possibility of land interaction. The new NHC forecast is generally similar to the previous forecast, although it has a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall in mainland Mexico due to a downward trend in the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, with the cyclone dissipating over the mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this coastline later today. 2. Heavy rainfall from Roslyn could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 17(59) X(59) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) X(48) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 16(51) X(51) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 32(36) 3(39) X(39) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 2(49) X(49) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 613 WTPZ24 KNHC 201448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 612 WTPZ34 KNHC 201448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven