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Ingram Barge, the largest barge operator in the U.S. and based in Nashville, alerted customers it had declared record water levels a “force majeure event,” which invokes an “act of God” provision in their contracts. The declaration means that circumstances beyond their control were preventing normal river transport operations in certain areas. Tennessee Lookout (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 24, 2022

Utah pumpkin growers produced fewer pumpkins this year as drought and heat affected production. Water supplies were short for some, leading them to plant fewer acres for lack of water. One farmer near Gunnison, Utah, planted just 20 acres of pumpkins and left another 80 acres idle, due to limited water. No grains or alfalfa was grown this year either. Some grocery stores were looking to purchase pumpkins from out of state to meet the demand for pumpkins. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), Oct 24, 2022

Texas honey production was expected to be down this season due to the lack of soil moisture and extreme heat statewide, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert. Major wildflower bloom periods in parts of the state were hindered by the lack of soil moisture and forage for bees, in addition to the early arrival of extreme heat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 26, 2022

Nebraska corn, soybean and wheat farmers may have lost nearly $2 billion due to drought this year. Nebraska Farm Bureau’s Senior Economist Jay Rempe estimated the loss to be $1.1 billion on corn and $674 million on soybeans, while wheat production was down 31%. The total loss is likely higher as the estimates to not include losses for other crops like sorghum, sugar beets, sunflowers, and dry beans. Cattle and other livestock were also affected by drought. Much of the state’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor to poor. Alfalfa production was estimated to be 22% lower than in 2021, while other hay production was estimated to be 18% lower than last year. Nebraska Farm Bureau (Lincoln, Neb.), Oct 27, 2022

Many West Tennessee farmers were so close to the Mississippi River that they delivered their grain straight to the river, lacking any storage silos that farmers elsewhere might use. But with the river so low, they had to leave crops in the field and pray for their fields to remain dry and for rain to raise river levels. Some barge companies were backed up and could not immediately take grain. Tennessee Lookout (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 24, 2022

Continuing drought in the Missouri River Basin led the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to lower Missouri River levels from Nebraska City to Kansas City by a full foot. The lower levels will affect boat traffic and could impact municipal water supplies and other utilities that rely on the river. Missouri River Basin Water Management Director John Remus says conditions have been getting worse since the drought first began to emerge in July of 2020. Radio Iowa (Des Moines), Sept. 14, 2022

Releases from Missouri River dams are expected to be lower this winter, due to low precipitation and drought, according to officials with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division, although releases from Gavins Point Dam were increased by 300 cubic feet per second in October to maintain downstream water needs. The Mitchell Daily Republic (S.D.), Oct 26, 2022 Forecasts for continued or worsening drought and lower than normal Missouri River levels have left the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers managing the river at the minimum service level, meaning that the navigation channel is also shallower and narrower. The navigation season is likely to end early in November also instead of Dec. 1. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), April 12, 2022 Runoff into the Missouri River above Sioux City continued to decline further. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on April 4 lowered the 2022 runoff forecast to 17.8 million acre-feet from 20.4 MAF after March runoff was just 1.5 MAF, 48% of average for the month. "Runoff was well below normal due to dry soil conditions and well below normal precipitation across the entire Missouri River basin," stated chief of the corps’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. "Due to the lack of plains snowpack in 2022, below-average mountain snowpack and dry upper basin conditions, we expect upper Missouri River Basin runoff to be below average." The revised annual forecasted runoff for 2022 is 69% of normal levels. The average annual runoff is 25.8 MAF. In 2021, runoff was 15.2 MAF, the 10th lowest total in 123 years of record keeping. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), April 5, 2022 Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Central Plains through the spring, leading to below normal runoff for the Missouri River in 2022. February runoff was less than predicted, and runoff is expected to be well below normal below Sioux City for 2022 water year. The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa, has dropped from 21.7 million acre feet in February to 20.4 MAF on March 1, a reduction of 1.3 MAF, amounting to 79% of normal. Hydropower will be reduced with the lower river levels. The six mainstem power plants generated 448 million kWh of electricity in February, compared to typical energy generation for the month of 624 million kWh. Based on current projections, the Missouri River’s annual power production will be 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), while the average is 9.4 billion kWh. Vermillion Plain Talk (S.D.), March 11, 2022

The low Mississippi River has not allowed grain to be moved quickly or at all, in some cases, so the grain has been piled on the ground. Soybeans were being piled at the terminal at Helena-West Helena during the second week of October, and more trucks were lined up to unload. Farmers get less for the grain as grain elevators bid lower and offer less for the grain, taking into account the higher cost of shipping the grain. Talk Business & Politics (Lowell, Ark.), Oct 17, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country. ...Southern Plains... A strong shortwave trough will dig from the Four Corners region across NM and the southern High Plains Thursday into Thursday night. A surface lee cyclone initially over southeastern CO is forecast to develop southeastward across the southern High Plains through the day. An attendant cold front should likewise sweep southeastward over the southern High Plains. A prior cold front passage has shunted rich low-level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Still, modest low-level moisture return will occur across TX on Thursday. Most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will be in place ahead of the surface low/cold front across the southern High Plains by early Thursday evening. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and daytime heating should all contribute to the development of a narrow corridor of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon from the southeastern TX Panhandle into southwest TX. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any thunderstorms that can form in this environment. Current expectations are for convection to gradually develop late Thursday afternoon and evening near the surface low in northwest TX as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. This initial activity may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, with some potential for a supercell given long, straight hodographs forecast at mid/upper levels. Additional thunderstorms should eventually form along the cold front across southwest TX and quickly grow upscale Thursday evening/night, with an associated threat for isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail. A marginal severe risk may persist Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of the TX Hill Country as mainly elevated thunderstorms continue eastward along/ahead of the cold front, with increasing low-level moisture and warm advection acting to partially offset nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. At this point, the limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast render too much uncertainty to include greater severe probabilities across the southern Plains. ..Gleason.. 10/26/2022 Read more

The Sturgill fire is located in the North Minam Drainage burning in mixed conifer. Firefighters continue to implement strategies to protect adjacent private property and inholdings such as Red’s Horse Ranch, the Minam River Lodge, and along Lostine River Rd. Fire resources have begun constructing a shaded fuel break between Lostine and Bear Creek to prevent fire growth to the north.Fire Evacuation - Wednesday, September 14, 2022, at 10:00 AMAll fire evacuation levels have been

October 26 Siouxon and Sunset Fire Update Current Situation: Rain and snow continue to fall on the Goat Rocks, Siouxon, and Sunset fire areas. Roads above 4,000 feet in elevation have received up to three inches of snow. In the interest of safety, firefighters are not travelling on snow-covered roads. Rain and snow are expected to fall intermittently into next week. Continued moisture is helping limit growth potential, but it is also making it difficult for firefighters to patrol or improve containment lines safely. Chipping and brush removal operations along Forest Road 311 near the Siouxon Fire and road repairs on Forest Road 42 near Sunset Falls Campground have paused due to saturated roads and continued rain and snow. These activities will require a period of dry weather before they can be completed. Firefighters will continue monitoring and patrolling the fire lines where it is safe to do so, while surplus resources will be released.Weather Information: On Tuesday, rain and...

The Goat Mountain 2 Fire is located southeast of Goat Mountain in the Eagle Cap Wilderness Area. Firefighters will monitor the Goat Mountain 2 Fire from lookouts and aircraft. If needed, they will take action to suppress the fire in Lostline Canyon. The fire is surrounded by rocky terrain on three sides. There are currently trail and road closures in effect for the fire within the Eagle Cap Wilderness Area. Closure Orders and Maps are available on the Wallowa Whitman National Forest Fire Incident Updates page. Fire Evacuation - Wednesday, September 14, 2022, at 10:00 AMAll fire evacuation levels have been

Sunday morning October 23, Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team Three assumed command of the Goat Rocks Fire, to continue the great work done by the type 3 organization. The Rocky Mountain IMT is also managing the Siouxon and Sunset fires to the southwest on the Gifford Pinchot National Forest.Resources: Daily Fire Updates can be accessed here or through the News tab in the blue bar located in the upper portion of this page. A variety of maps are added daily to the Maps section in the blue bar in the upper portion of this page or via this direct link.History and CommandOn September 12, Northwest Incident Management Team 10 took command of the Goat Rocks Fire. They did extensive work on the fire before passing management to Nevada Incident Management Team 4 on September 25.Another Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire on October 9, 2022. They continued work to contain the fire and started suppression repair work before passing management to Rocky...

Lightning storms came through the area on August 22 and 23. The Nebo Fire is located 21 Miles SE of Enterprise, OR. Near Mount Nebo. The fire is in the upper Lick Creek drainage and is burning in sub-alpine fir and grass. Pacific Northwest Team 2 took command of the fire on 09/03, and Oregon Office of the State Fire Marshal joined in unified command on 09/04.There are three lightning caused fires within the Eagle Cap Wilderness. The Nebo, Sturgill, and Goat Mountain 2 Fires are active and being managed to protect public and private infrastructure, while playing a natural role within designated Wilderness. In the Nebo fire, clean up from thinning and masticating will continue along Wallowa Mountain Loop Road (FSR 39). The Wallowa County Sheriff's Office issued an updated evacuation notice for today (Tuesday, September 14, 2022) at 10:00 a.m.All fire evacuations have been rescinded.Wallowa Whitman National Forest Temporary Area Closures: The Wallowa Whitman National Forest...

Lightning storms came through the area on August 22 and 23. The Nebo Fire is located 21 Miles SE of Enterprise, OR. Near Mount Nebo. The fire is in the upper Lick Creek drainage and is burning in sub-alpine fir and grass. Pacific Northwest Team 2 took command of the fire on 09/03, and Oregon Office of the State Fire Marshal joined in unified command on 09/04.There are three lightning caused fires within the Eagle Cap Wilderness. The Nebo, Sturgill, and Goat Mountain 2 Fires are active and being managed to protect public and private infrastructure, while playing a natural role within designated Wilderness. In the Nebo fire, clean up from thinning and masticating will continue along Wallowa Mountain Loop Road (FSR 39).  The Wallowa County Sheriff's Office issued an updated evacuation notice for today (Tuesday, September 14, 2022) at 10:00 a.m.All fire evacuations have been rescinded.Wallowa Whitman National Forest Temporary Area Closures: The Wallowa Whitman National Forest...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface low development will take place across the central and southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Rockies today. While breezy conditions will develop across the western portions of the Plains states, the surface airmass will be marginally dry at best, with fuels relatively poorly receptive to wildfire spread. While sparse Elevated conditions may occur across western Kansas by afternoon peak heating, significant wildfire-spread potential appears too low to warrant fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough moving toward the Northeast States/New England and a warm advection regime will influence the potential for isolated thunderstorms, mostly for coastal New England. Poor lapse rates will limit CAPE and any potential for severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today across north Florida/south Georgia along a cold front. A narrow corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken with time, so storm coverage should remain isolated. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over Washington/Oregon will dig southeastward toward UT through tonight. Cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet will contribute to weak buoyancy, mainly this afternoon/evening from southeast Idaho to northwest Colorado. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible, but relatively cold temperature profiles suggest that most of the convective precipitation will be snow. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/26/2022 Read more