Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, central Kansas and far south-central Nebraska Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible. ...Synopsis... A deep and progressive upper trough over the western US is forecast to intensify as it ejects eastward over the southern High Plains and northern Mexico late Thursday through early Friday morning. Initially positively tilted, a potent 500 mb jet streak (80-100 kt) along the West Coast should further deepen the upper trough as it becomes more neutrally tilted, and moves eastward late in the forecast period. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep east across the northern Plains while a secondary front moves through the Great Basin and Rockies. A lee low should develop early Thursday, aiding in advection of a rapidly modifying Gulf airmass northward over the southern/Central Plains. ...Central and southern Plains... Beginning early Thursday, mid-level ascent and southwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the Rockies and central High Plains ahead of the deepening upper trough. In response, a lee low should develop and drift eastward along a weak/stalled cold front over the central High Plains and Midwest. Aided by increasing southerly pressure gradients, a warm and moist Gulf airmass should advect northward with low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints reaching the Red River by early evening. While the bulk of large-scale forcing is expected to remain farther west with the main upper trough, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within the southwesterly flow should approach the TX Panhandle and High Plains near and after 00z. A conditional risk for isolated storms may develop along a lee trough/weak dryline across portions of the southern TX Panhandle where the greatest overlap of forcing for ascent overlaps with increasing surface moisture for buoyancy. Sufficient MLCAPE (~500 J/kg) and long mid-level hodographs (0-6km shear 50-60 kt) may support supercells capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the development of isolated storms given poor timing of the upper-level system with the diurnal cycle and the slower westward progression of surface moisture/destabilization. Low-level advection should continue overnight keeping at least marginally unstable conditions through the overnight hours. Farther north, confidence is somewhat better that mid-level warm advection and convergence along the southeastward moving cold front will allow a few, mostly-elevated, thunderstorm clusters/line segments to develop farther north across portions of western and central KS into far southern NE. This appears likely to be closer to the end of the period (12z Friday) as the main forcing begins to eject eastward. While surface moisture (mid 50s F surface dewpoints) and buoyancy is expected to be more limited, isolated hail and damaging winds may be possible with any organized convective clusters able to become established and persist into early Friday morning. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 11/02/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast for the central and northern High Plains (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. Modestly dry, windy conditions are likely later this afternoon east of the Elevated highlights into the central and northern Plains, where localized fire spread concerns exist. However, RH is expected to be too high to support widespread significant wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will amplify over the western CONUS, while deep/enhanced southwesterly flow overspreads the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the same time, an attendant surface cyclone will deepen over the northern Plains, while lee troughing extends southward along the High Plains. South-southwesterly surface winds will strengthen across most of the Great Plains in response to these developments, though substantial RH reductions will generally be confined to the central High Plains northward into parts of the northern High Plains/Upper MO Valley. Here, two distinct corridors of high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. For both Elevated areas, 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. For the southern Elevated area, the strongest surface winds (aided by a southerly low-level jet over KS) may be displaced slightly east of the more substantial RH reductions. With that said, high-end elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. Similarly for the northern Elevated area, the strongest surface winds may develop slightly north of the best RH reductions, though brief critical conditions are still possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the Lower 48 states. ...Synopsis... A weak perturbation over the Middle TN/OH River Valley will continue to the east through the day within a building synoptic ridge over the eastern CONUS. This feature will provide adequate lift for thunderstorms along/off the Carolina coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Across the West, a large upper wave will continue to amplify to the east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley over the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper trough will provide meager, but adequate, instability for occasional lightning flashes across portions of the Sierra Nevada and West Coast this afternoon and evening, and eventually into east UT/west CO overnight. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across western FL amid diurnal destabilization and weak convergence along the coast. Gradually improving flow aloft through the afternoon may support a strong storm or two, but the potential for severe hail/damaging winds remains too limited for risk probabilities. ..Moore/Grams.. 11/02/2022 Read more

Hungry coyotes in the El Dorado Valley of southern Nevada have taken to eating the endangered desert tortoise as other food sources, like rodents and rabbits, become scarce. Other animals eat tortoises, too. KVVU-TV FOX 5 Las Vegas (Nev.), Oct 31, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Nov 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 1 17:22:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 1 17:22:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper air pattern will amplify on Wednesday with a large-scale trough over the West and ridging into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions over most of the central and eastern CONUS, with low-level moisture return occurring late in the period over southern Texas where it will remain capped. Elsewhere, weak easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass over Florida, and isolated weak convection will be possible during the day due to heating. However, lapse rates will remain poor with weak wind fields. Farther west, cooling temperatures aloft will result in weak instability over the Four Corners area, with a few lightning flashes possible. Isolated low-topped convection may also occur over the Pacific Northwest beneath very cold temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough over Texas will continue east-northeastward and reach the Tennessee Valley tonight. Thunderstorm potential will continue to shift eastward from south Texas toward the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Well ahead of this trough, a small/narrow inland warm sector across coastal North Carolina may be conducive for a few thunderstorms. In the West, a large-scale trough will advance inland over the Pacific Northwest through tonight. A broad area of low-topped convection will overspread coastal areas within the post-frontal environment. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates will contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for isolated low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight across coastal Oregon/Washington and northern California. ..Guyer/Moore.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only major change was to expand Elevated highlights farther north into southwest North Dakota, where the latest guidance consensus depicts at least a few hours of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A substantial large-scale trough preceded by deep/enhanced southwesterly flow will advance eastward across the western CONUS. At the same time, an attendant surface cyclone will evolve slowly eastward across MT, while lee troughing extends southward along the northern and central High Plains. As a result, 15-20 mph south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across parts of the Great Plains and central Rockies. Over the northern and central High Plains, efficient diurnal heating amid downslope warming/drying will favor 15-20 percent minimum RH given limited low-level moisture return. As these dry/breezy conditions overspread increasingly receptive fuels, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. Farther west, locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the Great Basin -- where dry/breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon. However, only marginally receptive fuels across the area cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Wickiup Reservoir was essentially empty at the end of the 2021 season. At the end of March 2022, four area reservoirs were at record low levels for the start of the irrigation season with Wickiup at 55% full, Prineville Reservoir was 26% full and Ochoco Reservoir was 11% full. The North Unit Irrigation District allowed its patrons just 0.45 acre-feet, the lowest allocation farmers have had from the district. On Oct. 11, Wickiup was just 3% full, holding about 6,600 acre-feet of water, according to the Bureau of Reclamation website. The Bend Bulletin (Ore.), Oct 14, 2022

Dry conditions and low water forced the Minneapolis Water Taxi to make some adjustments to its route in the second half of its season. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis, Minn.), Oct 30, 2022

Drought has lowered lake and river levels across Minnesota with most large rivers in the state at levels between 25% and 75% of normal for this time of year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. A boat owner wondered where he could bring in his boat safely for the winter as the low water level made taking the boat out of the water difficult. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis, Minn.), Oct 30, 2022

A southeast Nebraska attested that drought and fertilizer availability were factors in the uncertainty of next year’s crop. He has struggled to book fertilizer and wondered if it could be applied in the spring or whether he will be able to get his hands on fertilizer by then. The farmer also mentioned that there was nothing in the soil for the anhydrous to bind to, so it will simply evaporate. Brownfield Online (Jefferson City, Mo.), Oct 31, 2022

The number of feeder cattle sold in the combined weekly cattle auction from mid-July through mid-October was up 19.7%. Larger summer sales volume means fewer sold in the fall, and the feeder sales volume for the past two weeks has been down 6.1% compared to the same time last year. The volume of cull cows in Oklahoma auctions remained well above last year. The volume of cull cows and bulls in auctions has averaged twice the number from one year ago since mid-July and has been higher nearly every week of the year. This increase has added roughly 50,000 head of cull cows above year ago levels in the seven federally reported Oklahoma auctions. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), Oct 31, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

The town of Kimmswick, Missouri, opened a $1.3 million port in July 2021 to allow cruise ships on the Mississippi River to dock and let passengers disembark for shopping and touring the city. The town of 131 people depends on river traffic and river-themed events for its economy. The American Queen Riverboat recently had to cancel docking at the new port due to the low river levels. Although 13 boats were scheduled to dock at Kimmswick this year, only four have stopped. Courthouse News Service (Pasadena, Calif.), Oct 31, 2022