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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NC/VA...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes are possible through mid-late afternoon over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Large hail will be the main severe-weather threat in south Texas this afternoon/evening. ...NC/VA through mid-late afternoon... The remnants of Nicole will accelerate northeastward and weaken by tonight over the Mid-Atlantic. In the interim, there will still be the potential for broken convective bands from NC into VA through the afternoon as some low-level destabilization occurs in cloud breaks. Curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH at or above 200 m2/s2 will be maintained northeast of the remnant circulation center through the afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with supercells in the convective bands. ...Central/south TX through this evening... Slightly elevated strong-severe storms are ongoing across central TX on the immediate cool side of a surface cold front. This front will continue to move southeastward to the coastal plain by this evening, as an associated midlevel trough progresses eastward over the southern Plains. The threat for surface-based storms will increase some this afternoon from roughly San Antonio to Corpus Christi, just ahead of the front in a zone of ascent with a lead mid-upper speed max over the Big Bend (as evidenced by the warm sector convection over Real County as of 16z). Long/relatively straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support the potential for a few supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) and damaging gusts from early afternoon until the storms move off the middle TX coast by late evening. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 11/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS in the wake of a strong cold front across the Plains and due to widespread precipitation across the East Coast associated with the remnants of Hurricane Nicole. Locally dry/breezy conditions across the higher terrain of southern California will wane through the day amid a weakening pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be present across much of the western and central U.S. today. A combination of cooler temperatures and recent/expected precipitation will keep fire weather concerns minimal during the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Siskiyou County ranchers are being fined $4,000 for pumping water from the Shasta River in August. The proposed fine is $500 per day for eight days of pumping for a rural water association that serves about 80 farmers and ranchers and comes to about $50 per rancher. CalMatters (Sacramento, Calif.), Nov 7, 2022

Many homeowners in the Siouxland area were experiencing problems with their foundations due to the ongoing drought, which has caused the soil to shrink and shift. Cracks may form, or doors and windows can become difficult to close. Siouxland Matters (Sioux City, Iowa), Nov 9, 2022

Peabody’s reservoirs were too low to use so both water treatment plants have been offline for about two weeks. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority was providing some water for the town as it did during the summer. Water was not flowing into Peabody’s reservoirs; they were only replenished with rain and water pumped in from the Ipswich River, which has been at record lows this year. Salem News (Mass.), Nov 10, 2022

Crops in Dickinson County yielded half or less, like so many across the state. The wheat crop and hay crops yielded half, and the fall crops milo, corn and soybeans yielded less than half due to meager rainfall during the summer and fall. Abilene Reflector-Chronicle (Kan.), Nov 3, 2022

Residents of Evansville have noticed an unpleasant aroma within the city limits this week. Officials with Evansville Water and Sewer Utility claim that more rain is needed to flush materials through the sewer system, which should alleviate the smell. WEHT-TV News 25 ABC (Evansville, Ind.), Nov 10, 2022

As drought conditions cover nearly all of Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear would like the public to temporarily stop outdoor burning. Wildfires have become a problem with 52 fires actively burning, and 20 of the blazes are not yet contained. In Estill County, two large fires have burned nearly 1,000 acres. A LaRue County fire has consumed about 100 acres. Since Oct. 1, more than 15,000 acres have burned in Kentucky. WLKY.com Louisville Channel (Ky.), Nov 10, 2022

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...parts of northern Missouri into eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101747Z - 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with storms gradually strengthening along a cold front. A WW issuance appears unlikely given the isolated extent of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...A strong surface cold front continues to advance eastward in tandem with a mid-level jet streak overspreading the Upper MS Valley. Ahead of the cold front, small cloud breaks, and diurnal heating is supporting surface temperatures warming into the 70s F, that combined with 60+ F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 17Z mesoanalysis) is contributing to 500 J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE. Coincident with this marginal buoyancy is a unidirectional speed-shear profile, with elongated, relatively straight hodographs shown by RAP forecast soundings. Modest, gradual intensification of a low-topped squall line is underway along the cold front in central IA and this trend may continue through the afternoon. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40229393 42199297 43319240 44809136 44939060 44858987 44378934 43538922 41899029 40529139 40009166 39489204 38899268 38619328 38719383 38969412 39469425 40229393 Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0566 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 566 TORNADO GA SC CW 101745Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Offshore thunderstorms will continue to track inland and pose a risk of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south of Waycross GA to 55 miles northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 12025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible Friday across parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Per latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center, a gradually weakening Nicole should be centered over west-central/north-central Georgia Friday morning, and subsequently continue northeastward parallel to the Appalachians as it undergoes a post-tropical transition through Friday afternoon and Friday night. Even though Nicole is expected to weaken, low/mid-level winds on its eastern periphery will remain strong including a 45-55 kt low-level jet. Meanwhile, rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. This moisture along with the possibility of some cloud breaks in conjunction with enlarged low-level hodographs (effective SRH of at least 200-300 m2/s2) will support low-topped supercell potential. Current thinking is the most supercell/tornado-favorable collocation of ingredients should materialize across central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. The northward extent of the tornado risk across the Mid-Atlantic appears increasingly marginal with time Friday evening as boundary-layer instability becomes quite weak. But, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints could reach as far north as southern New England as the surface wave begins to deepen again in its post-tropical transition. ...Central into Coastal/Deep South Texas... The region will be influenced by the southern periphery of an upper trough/polar jet over the Plains. A southeast-moving cold front should generally be located from the ArkLaTex southwestward toward the Texas Big Bend Friday morning, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing along/behind the surface reflection of the front. These elevated post-frontal storms could produce some hail during the day, although mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep and elevated buoyancy will tend to remain weak (less than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). As the boundary layer warms, a few surface-based storms may develop Friday afternoon near the surface front across Deep South Texas and the middle Texas Coast. Some of the storms may exhibit supercell characteristics with isolated large hail and damaging wind potential before the front clears the coast by Friday mid/late evening. ..Guyer.. 11/10/2022 Read more

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...portions of Coastal Georgia to the South Carolina Border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101731Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop along the GA coastal area, up to the SC border this afternoon as a band of low-topped, transient supercells continues to shift northward. A WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Nicole continues to drift northwestward, with a band of low-topped transient supercells persisting along the GA/FL border. So far, these storms have produced mainly brief, transient low-level rotation, with no tornadoes reported or TDSs detecting on regional radars so far. Relatively more favorable, buoyant air has struggled to advect appreciably far inland, with northeasterly surface winds and cloud cover keeping temperatures/dewpoints down to around 68-70 F just north of the ongoing convective band. Visible satellite does show some clearing around the primary northward-moving band of transient supercells, suggesting that slightly more buoyant air may advect inland later this afternoon. Some guidance hints at MLCAPE approaching the 500-1000 J/kg range immediately onshore in the next few hours. Given favorably curved, elongated hodographs recently shown by regional VADs, this buoyancy could support an isolated tornado threat along the shoreline. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... LAT...LON 31298187 31988154 32288129 32518089 32588055 32498037 32188052 31728090 31528104 31318124 31298187 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Thu Nov 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 11/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move southeastward across the central US early Thursday. Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains by Thursday afternoon with relative humidity falling to around 20-25 percent across western Kansas south into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Though conditions will be dry and windy, much cooler temperatures and recent rainfall will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1935 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101638Z - 102045Z SUMMARY...Areas of mixed sleet and freezing rain should expand in coverage near a strengthening low this morning/early afternoon. DISCUSSION...As of 1620 UTC, upper air and objective analysis showed a deep upper trough and associated surface low across south MN, with a warm front extending northeastward toward the international border. To the north of the front, weak convection within the waa regime has supported some mixed precipitation including snow pellets and freezing drizzle over the last 2 hours. As lift and warm advection increase ahead of the approaching upper trough, additional precip should develop atop the shallow cold airmass north of the front from southeastern ND into north-central MN. Area RAP soundings show temperatures in the elevated warm nose near or slightly above freezing suggesting sleet and some freezing rain are likely to develop. Rates may briefly approach 0.25 inches per hour with weak embedded convective elements and some elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100 J/kg). A transition to all snow (heavy at times) appears likely later this afternoon and evening as the surface low and upper wave shift northeastward, weakening the warm nose and deepening the freezing layer. ..Lyons.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 46549775 47489738 47949665 48389571 48629497 48789393 48609239 48449231 47889318 47059539 46769627 46489737 46549775 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into eastern Georgia and South Carolina, and possibly overnight into southern North Carolina. Isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi to Lower Missouri Valleys. ...FL/GA/Carolinas... Tropical Storm Nicole continues to affect much of FL. So far, convection over the eastern semi-circle has not shown significant intensity, with only occasional and transient rotating structures off of the coast near JAX. This is near a surface baroclinic zone that extends northeastward just off the GA/SC/NC coast. Most model solutions suggest this boundary will drift inland this afternoon, resulting in at least a conditional risk of surface-based deep convection. Shear profiles will be quite strong throughout this area, possibly resulting in a few tornadoes this afternoon and tonight if convective trends increase. The threat farther inland will be limited by northeasterly surface winds, dewpoints only in the 60s, and dense cloud cover maintaining a generally stable surface airmass. ...Upper MS Valley... A very strong surface cold front is sweeping eastward across parts of MN/IA/KS, and will affect much of the upper MS Valley through the day. Dewpoints in the 60s and partial daytime heating will lead to sufficient CAPE (generally around 750 J/kg) ahead of the front for a line of showers and low-topped thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Wind fields and forcing are strong, suggesting a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the more robust cells along the line. Morning CAM solutions differ on the extent/intensity of the convective line, and given the weak CAPE, there is doubt whether the line can become sufficiently organized to pose an organized damaging wind threat. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk. However, an upgrade to SLGT is possible later today if mesoscale trends show the line strengthening more than anticipated. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/10/2022 Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SGJ TO 20 SE JAX TO 25 SW JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..SQUITIERI..11/10/22 ATTN...WFO...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-089-101640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC039-127-101640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN AMZ450-452-101640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 Read more

Ipswich has a water ban as town reservoirs were still below 50% of capacity. Bans were also in effect in Danvers, Hamilton and Wenham. Essex and Gloucester lifted their water bans in recent weeks. Salem News (Mass.), Nov 10, 2022

Since Oct. 1, more than 15,000 acres have burned in Kentucky as drought expanded to cover most of the state. WLKY.com Louisville Channel (Ky.), Nov 10, 2022