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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST UTAH... An area delineating critical fire-weather potential was added to northwest Nevada and far northeast Utah. The latest high-resolution guidance suggests winds here will be sustained above 20 mph in concert with RH values falling below 15%. Fuels in this region are receptive to large-fire spread. Farther west, into portions of north-central Nevada, despite critical winds, RH appears to be the primary limiting factor for realizing critical conditions, and thus have maintained an elevated designation here for the time being. The balance of the previous forecast remains on track, see the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level jet will progress farther into the central/northern Rockies region, bringing with it stronger flow aloft than Saturday. At the surface a front is expected to move through the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Intermountain West as a high pressure system builds into Washington/Oregon. In the Plains, a lee trough is also forecast to deepen. These features will combine to promote critical fire weather conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin and central Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a touch cooler than on Saturday, but the post-frontal air mass in place is expected to be drier. Sustained surface winds can be expected to reach 20-25 mph with RH falling to 10-15% during the afternoon within the highlighted critical area. Gusts, and potentially sustained winds, of greater than 30 mph will be possible across parts of southern Idaho/Wyoming underneath the core of the mid-level jet. Elsewhere across the northern/central Great Basin and central Rockies elevated fire weather conditions can be expected. Winds will generally remain between 15-20 mph and afternoon RH will be 10-20% in these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 24 19:01:02 UTC 2019.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period. ...Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska... The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area. Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based. ...Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks... An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Cook.. 08/24/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the middle of next
week just offshore of the west-central coast of Mexico near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Locally critical fire-weather conditions remain a possibility, mainly across portions of the Snake River Valley as well as across southern/southwest Wyoming. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Locally critical fire-weather conditions remain a possibility, mainly across portions of the Snake River Valley as well as across southern/southwest Wyoming. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Locally critical fire-weather conditions remain a possibility, mainly across portions of the Snake River Valley as well as across southern/southwest Wyoming. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Locally critical fire-weather conditions remain a possibility, mainly across portions of the Snake River Valley as well as across southern/southwest Wyoming. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Karstens.. 08/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level jet will overspread much of the Pacific Northwest today with the nose of the jet reaching across portions of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Ahead of a front that is forecast to move through the northwestern CONUS and parts of the Intermountain west tomorrow, dry and windy conditions are likely to occur across southeastern Oregon, the northern Great Basin and parts of the central Rockies. Despite the possibility of some high-level clouds, boundary-layer mixing should promote elevated fire weather conditions of 15-20 mph surface winds amidst 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Snake River Valley as well as portions of southern Wyoming. Given the relative lack of a stronger surface pressure gradient and even the most aggressive high-resolution guidance only signaling locally critical fire weather conditions, the critical area within the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming was removed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Dial.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Dial.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Dial.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS/northern OK through tonight... An initial convectively enhanced midlevel trough is pivoting northeastward over northern KS/southern NE, as an upstream trough over southeastern WY/northern CO moves toward western KS by this evening. In the wake of widespread overnight convection, steeper midlevel lapse rates will spread east-southeastward from CO toward western KS, above low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central KS and OK. Clouds will linger today across most of KS aside from the southwest, but the combination of increasing midlevel lapse rates/low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid-late afternoon across western KS. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the location(s) and timing of convective initiation this afternoon into early tonight. One scenario appears to be for convection to start late this afternoon/evening near the KS/NE border, in a zone of low-level warm advection along the southern flank of the MCV. This area will be just north of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear, so there would be a tendency for storms to cluster/merge and begin to grow upscale and move southeastward on congealing outflow into early tonight. The environment farther south into the western half of KS will be conditionally favorable for supercells with large hodograph curvature/SRH in the low levels, and effective bulk shear near or greater than 40 kt. However, the focus for storm initiation south of the MCV/warm advection is a bit more nebulous across western KS this afternoon, other than weak ascent preceding the midlevel trough moving southeastward from CO. If surface-based storms can form across western KS, all severe hazards will be possible. Will largely maintain the previous outlook to cover the possibility for an MCS central KS overnight, and for evening supercells in western KS that could move toward northwest OK. ...Western ND this afternoon/evening... A surface trough could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across western ND. Forcing for ascent will be weak, along with vertical shear, which suggest that marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns. ...Central/eastern MT this evening... Some high based convection should form later this afternoon/evening across central MT, in advance of an embedded speed max moving eastward from northern ID. Though low-level moisture will be limited, inverted-v profiles and an increase in midlevel flow prior to stabilization of the boundary layer could support isolated storms with strong outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Dial.. 08/24/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT

A revised area closure was put into place on 8/21/19, the previous order has been terminated.Although high amounts of precipitation and seasonally low temperatures has kept fire activity to a minimum, crews have reported a slight increase in smoke activity this week. The area between the Black Bear and Salmon Forks Administrative sites has received rain in excess of 1.5" between August 9th and August 17th. Fire personnel have made great use of the recent reduction in fire activity, and have been working to clear and re-clear trails affected by the fire. The ever present snag hazard has limited their ability to work in certain areas and trails, however as conditions dictate efforts will continue to safely clear trails.The Snow Creek Fire begin during the night of August 2nd. Since then, crews from the Spotted Bear and Hungry Horse Ranger Districts as well as the Lewis and Clark National Forest have worked together to provide critical structure protection to historical, administrative...