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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today. Localized elevated conditions are noted within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in southern CA, and may persist through 20 UTC based on latest ensemble guidance. However, these conditions will remain too localized for highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022/ ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will be present across the entire CONUS today. An expansive surface high pressure system will stretch from the Northwest into the Southeast. A modest coastal trough will develop through the period in southern California. Cool/cold temperatures and weak surface winds will keep fire weather concerns very low during the period. Some locally elevated conditions remain possible early this morning in LA/Ventura Counties before Santa Ana winds fully subside by late morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Fewer pecans were grown in Louisiana and other southern states, due to drought. A pecan shelling company in Monroe normally receives 2 million to 3 million pounds of pecans to process, but none have arrived yet, although Thanksgiving and Christmas are usually busy times for the company. Cold weather makes the nuts open up and fall, but the cold weather was late this year. Of the nuts that have been harvested, about half is being thrown away because lack of water kept the nuts from filling out. KNOE 8 (Monroe, La.), Nov 16, 2022

Cheyenne Bottoms is where thousands of hunters typically come to find a variety of ducks and waterfowl, but since drought has dried out the wetland, it has become a destination for pheasants and quail. Hunting season continues through January 31, 2023. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Nov 16, 2022

The growing season was not ideal for pecan growers in Mississippi with drought and rain falling at a poor time. The dry conditions may reduce nut fill and return bloom next season, so next year’s crop may be smaller. The dry summer was helpful in controlling pecan scab, a troublesome disease for the state’s pecan trees. Drought also delayed the shuck splitting to release the nuts by about a month. This year’s crop is estimated at about 3 million pounds. Since many pecan tree varieties tend to bear more heavily in alternate years, the state’s production ranges from 2 million pounds to 8 or 9 million pounds. Irrigated trees were fine, but nonirrigated trees aborted nuts or did not have good nut fill. A late-spring freeze also caused orchards to lose a portion of their crop. AgFax (Brandon, Miss.), Nov 16, 2022

Drought in the Midwest has allowed water levels to drop in Smallin Civil War Cave in Ozark, Missouri, revealing a section of the cave that was previously underwater. The section was underwater during the 2012 drought and long ago provided shelter to Union soldiers during the Civil War and the Cherokee Nation during the Trail of Tears. St. Louis Public Radio (Mo.), Nov 14, 2022 Lower water levels in the Smallin Civil War Cave have exposed another 1,100 feet of passageway. KY3 (Springfield, Mo.), Oct 26, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within the broad upper troughing forecast to persist across the CONUS on Thursday, particularly within the northern stream from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression will help reinforce the dry, continental air mass already in place. Stable conditions associated with this air mass will preclude thunderstorm development across the majority of the CONUS Thursday. The only exception is in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, where a flash or two is possible within the shallow lake-effect squalls. Lightning coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/16/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 16 17:25:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Wed Nov 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1954 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ME
Mesoscale Discussion 1954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern ME Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161636Z - 162200Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates around 1 inch per hour, should occur through the afternoon across parts of northern Maine. DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over northern NY and southern Ontario/Quebec will progress northeastward today. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this feature will overspread northern New England through the afternoon. A band of precipitation associated with pronounced frontogenesis in the 700-500 mb layer currently exists over southern Quebec into northern ME. Based on the 12Z sounding from CAR and latest RAP forecast soundings, expectations are for the bulk of this precipitation to fall as snow across northern ME over the next several hours. Strong ascent through the saturated dendritic growth zone should support a band of heavy snow, with rates around 1 inch per hour, mainly across northern ME through this afternoon. Locally higher rates may occur within the most intense portions of the heavy snow band. The stronger forcing aloft will eventually shift into Canada by this evening, with the heavy snow also developing northward and away from northern ME. A mix of freezing rain and sleet may occur on the southern fringe of the precipitation band, where low-level warm advection will support some melting of frozen hydrometeors. ..Gleason.. 11/16/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR... LAT...LON 47526927 47476897 47256888 47426833 47326804 47036771 46386774 46086883 45996970 45997036 46357029 46477008 46747003 47526927 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... Morning observations from along the southern CA coast show a strong Santa Ana wind event underway with RH values in the single digits to low 20s and winds gusting to 50-60 mph (occasionally up to 70 mph within the LA/Ventura county mountains). Several more hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected before winds gradually abate this evening. Elevated wind/RH conditions will likely develop within the lower CO river valley amid deep diurnal mixing, but limited fuel status for most of the region precludes an expansion of the risk area. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/16/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be in place across much of the U.S. today. A compact shortwave trough along the southern California coast will phase with the large trough to the east early in the period. Surface high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin before slowly weakening through the day. ...Southern California... A strong Santa Ana wind event will be ongoing on early this morning. The offshore pressure gradient will be maximized during the early/mid-morning and slowly relax thereafter. Stronger winds aloft, associated with the passing shortwave, will also be most favorably aligned with the offshore gradient during the same period. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible away from the terrain with 40-60 mph possible in wind-prone areas. Given the upper-level wind support for this event, higher gusts can be expected as well. RH of 10-20% is probable in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors and will become more widespread by afternoon. The main limiting factor for a more significant event will be the moisture levels of the heavier fuels. Fine fuels, however, will be receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Broad large-scale troughing will persist over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while an embedded cyclonic impulse lifts northeastward across the Saint Lawrence Valley. An associated surface cyclone will track northeastward off the New England coast, while a cold front extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the central/southern Florida Peninsula. A plume of strong warm air advection ahead of the surface cyclone combined with weak elevated buoyancy could support an isolated lightning flash near eastern ME this afternoon, though this activity looks too isolated for thunder probabilities. Farther south, an isolated storm cannot be ruled out over southwest FL and eventually southeastern FL along the diffuse cold front, though storms should generally remain offshore. Over the Great Lakes, a lightning flash or two is possible with the more intense/persistent lake effect snowbands given a modestly deep convective boundary layer, though coverage appears too limited for thunder probabilities here. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/16/2022 Read more

This Central California project aims to capture floodwaters that would otherwise rush out to sea or cause damage. The recharge system turns unused fields into large ponds to hold water so it can percolate into the porous rock and earth below. Reuters (New York), Nov 15, 2022

State and local fire officials asked Massachusetts lawmakers to provide more funding to help them battle persistent wildfires that can occur during droughts. Although wildfires used to be rare in the summer, more than 100 wildfires burned in August. Since the beginning of June, 450 wildfires burned 449 acres in the state, according to the chief fire warden for the state Department of Conservation and Recreation. He attested to the landscape being brown in late July and resembling Arizona, at a time of year when things should have been lush green. WGBH (Boston, Mass.), Nov 15, 2022

A spate of brush and wildfires has affected southwest Pennsylvania after a dry summer. The Pinecroft Volunteer Fire Department's deputy chief stated that they have responded to four brush fires in the past five days. WJAC (Johnstown, Pa.), Nov 11, 2022

A Hastings Christmas tree grower warned that shoppers may find fewer trees to choose from as heat and drought wiped out about 33% of the trees planted this year and another 15% of the deciduous trees and evergreen trees. The sprinkler system has been in use for four months straight. An Aurora tree grower reported that this year was difficult compared and that trees were watered twice weekly with drip irrigation. Prices on this year’s trees have risen a bit. NTV (Axtell, Neb.), Nov 15, 2022

A bison rancher in eastern Colorado had to sell a significant portion of his herd, amounting to more than 300 animals, as drought gripped the area. The movement of bison created dense clouds of dust, obscuring the view. The ranch normally has about 250 buffalo cows, but that number was being reduced to 100. KDVR Online (Denver, Colo.), Nov 16, 2022

Arkansas firefighters were helping battle the many blazes that have scorched more than 15,000 acres in Kentucky since Oct. 1. People from Union, Clark, Dallas, Searcy, Stone and Faulkner counties headed to Kentucky on Nov. 10 and were to return on Nov. 15. The Forestry Division employees were deployed to Kentucky as part of the Southeastern Interstate Forest Fire Protection Compact, which allows participating states to send wildland firefighters and resources across state lines to fight wildfires. El Dorado News-Times (Ark.), Nov 15, 2022

Since the beginning of June, 450 wildfires burned 449 acres in Massachusetts, according to the chief fire warden for the state Department of Conservation and Recreation. He attested to the landscape being brown in late July and resembling Arizona, at a time of year when things should have been lush green. Although wildfires used to be rare in the summer, more than 100 wildfires burned in August. WGBH (Boston, Mass.), Nov 15, 2022 Ninety-seven wildfires have occurred in Massachusetts since the start of August, according to the Chief Forest Fire warden. WBUR-FM Boston Public Radio (Mass.), Aug. 23, 2022