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The summer drought in the Northeast was hard on Christmas tree growers, leading some to limit the number of trees available or stay closed this holiday season. One Tiverton tree farmer was not opening, due to drought damage and being unable to source trees from elsewhere. His trees were green six weeks ago, but have since become discolored and were suffering from a mite called cryptomeria scale. Tree farms in Scituate and South Kingstown were also not opening this year. Other tree farms were opening, but were offering fewer trees. WPRI.com (Providence, R.I.), Nov 23, 2022

Dust pneumonia continued to be a problem for Nebraska livestock, due to dry, dusty, windy conditions. Young calves are often most affected, and the lung scarring from the illness is permanent. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Nov 23, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. Locally damaging wind gusts are most likely. ...Discussion... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over much of northeast TX into AR in a warm advection regime where the 850 mb will be over 30 kt. A few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE may support a few stronger cores but severe hail is unlikely. Farther south, a quasi-stationary front will extend from southeast TX toward coastal LA, while the cold front remains far to the west. Upper 60s F dewpoints will exist south of the boundary, resulting in favorable SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg. As the upper low drops south across NM and into Far West TX, moderate southwest flow aloft will result in long hodographs across TX and LA. Low-level shear is expected to weaken throughout the day, with 850 winds becoming less than 15-20 kts during the afternoon. However, as early day storms interact along the east-west boundary, localized severe weather may occur as lift and shear will be maximized along it. A weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the boundary. A few showers may occur overnight across southern LA as well, with any surface-based activity likely south of I-10. However, models do not suggest much storm strength at that time with relatively weak warm advection profiles. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 23 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 23 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231703
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Wed Nov 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that there will be further amplification within the flow across western North America through this period. This likely will include building mid-level ridging across and inland of the U.S./British Columbia Pacific coast, and digging mid-level troughing within split downstream branches near and east of the Rockies. It still appears that the more amplified of these perturbations will evolve in the southern branch, and include a developing mid-level low near the Colorado into New Mexico Rockies later today through tonight. Farther downstream, as a deep mid-level low continues to form while redeveloping across and southeast of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that the persistent confluent mid-level regime across the eastern U.S. may become more focused across and just east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging will be maintained and reinforced across the Atlantic Seaboard. As some erosion of this ridging commences across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that more prominent surface ridging, developing across the Intermountain West and Rockies, will begin to build into the Great Plains. And, surface cyclogenesis will remain suppressed within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Great Plains vicinity... On the southwestern periphery of the eastern surface ridging, modest low-level moisture return is already underway across and north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. A gradual moistening likely will continue within a narrow plume on the eastern periphery of a low-level jet (roughly 30+ kt around 850 mb), north-northeastward toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak Thursday. However, this is occurring above an initially cold/stable surface-based layer. While there probably will be some modification of this air mass today through tonight, low cloud cover and precipitation will contribute to the maintenance of a substantive low-level/near-surface inversion layer across most areas north of the middle Texas coastal plain. Weak boundary-layer destabilization appears possible overnight across the coastal plain, but this seems likely to remain capped beneath warming layers aloft. North of a College Station/Temple line into areas near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to support increasing thunderstorm development late this evening into the overnight hours. Modest to weak elevated instability and shear (within the relevant potential convective layer) likely will minimize the risk for severe weather. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the current outlook. Brief locally elevated conditions will remain possible today ahead of a surging cold front in eastern CO. However, temporal and spatial coverage should remain below criteria for elevated highlights. Gusty downslope winds and brief elevated fire-weather conditions may develop over portions of the LA basin and southern CA late tonight into early D2/Thur. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development across the central/southern High Plains. Dry downslope flow along the lee of the Rockies may encourage brief bouts of Elevated surface conditions across portions of the central High Plains, with the brevity of these conditions precluding fire weather highlights. Elsewhere across the CONUS, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Christmas tree farm near Lennox has received very little rain since early summer so the trees lacked the moisture to allow them to grow as tall as usual in a season. While the farm might typically have seven feet tall trees for sale, those may be scarce this year with trees being perhaps just six feet in height. The lack of rain was also very hard on the newly planted trees. Customers are urged to give the trees plenty of water and care after the dry growing season. Valley News Live (Fargo, N.D.), Nov 22, 2022

Strong winds, dry fuel and very dry air have combined to cause multiple brush fires in Hawaii with leeward areas most affected. KHON-TV FOX 2 (Honolulu, Hawaii), Nov 21, 2022

Navigation difficulties on the Mississippi River extend up to St. Louis as the flows were reduced on the Missouri River on Nov. 19. Dredging operations were underway around St. Louis to keep a navigation channel open. Although barge movements were slow, grain terminals in the New Orleans area reported a 35% increase in barges that were unloaded, compared to the previous week. Spot barge rates have fallen from $110 per metric ton in October to about $40 per metric ton. The rate was $20 per ton for much of the year. The high barge rate meant that some producers were receiving $2 less per bushel for corn and soybeans, according to Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at the USDA Office of Chief Economist. In October, barge movements on the Mississippi River slowed from a three-year average of 700 barges down to closer to 150 barges. Tonnage fell from 1 million metric tons a week down closer to 150,000 metric tons. At the end of November, the drawdown on the Missouri River will cause the level of the Mississippi River to drop about 3 feet at St. Louis. Combined, corn and soybean shipments on the river systems, including the Illinois and Ohio rivers, for 2022 are just over 26 million metric tons, down about 12.5% from the same year-to-date in 2021. Total grain export inspections at the Mississippi Gulf equal about 95% of last year's volume, according to USDA. Corn, soybeans and wheat total 55.17 mmt in the Mississippi Gulf, compared to 57.85 mmt last year. DTN – The Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Nov 18, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 22 18:18:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 22 18:18:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Wednesday. General thunderstorms are likely from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas overnight. ...Discussion... A surface high will remain over the eastern CONUS with winds gradually veering to easterly over the Gulf of Mexico. Modest surface moisture return will occur Wednesday night across southeast TX, as surface pressures lower ahead of an upper low dropping south across CO and NM. Meanwhile, a cold front will surge south across the central and southern High Plains in advance of the upper low, well west of the developing moist plume. Moistening just above the surface will occur from eastern TX into AR as southwesterly 850 mb winds average 30-40 kt. Lift from warm advection will lead to scattered showers, with thunderstorms expected Wednesday night after about 05Z. Forecast soundings show elevated instability up to 500 J/kg developing from central and northern TX into southeast OK, suggesting little if any severe hail threat given only modest effective-layer shear and midlevel lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. ..Jewell.. 11/22/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221707
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown