Aggregator

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250632Z - 250800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds associated with an organized line of storms will spread southeastward across parts of central into southeastern KS early this morning. Downstream watch issuance into parts of northern Oklahoma may be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A small but well organized bow has developed across central KS over the past couple of hours. The VWP from KICT shows a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet is in place across southern KS, which is aiding continued storm intensity. Recent KICT radar data also show strong (generally 40-55 kt) inbound velocities aloft associated with a rear-inflow jet. A relative minimum in MLCIN is being estimated by 06Z mesoanalysis across parts of central into southeastern KS, with a couple wind gusts of 50-70 mph observed within the past hour or so. The apex of this line is moving southeastward around 35-40 kt along an instability gradient, and it should approach the Wichita KS vicinity within the next 1-2 hours. Strong to severe winds capable of producing damage will continue to be the main threat with these storms through the early morning hours. But, isolated large hail may also occur with any embedded supercell, such as the one currently on the western flank of the line in Rush County KS. Although convective inhibition may be somewhat greater into northern OK, there is some potential for this bow to pose an organized severe threat south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into parts of northern OK may be needed in the next couple of hours, depending on observational trends. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38309956 38649923 38549864 38649816 38879794 39179769 38839673 38149598 37679575 37049566 36199602 35929685 36189855 36999952 38309956 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter (15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the central Plains into the middle MS Valley. Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL, and southern WI. Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Middle MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region. Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe potential and precluding the need for any probabilities. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. ...Dakotas vicinity... A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning. Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN. ...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau... A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with this activity during the morning as it moves southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau. Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK. Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility warrants associated severe probabilities. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. ...Dakotas vicinity... A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning. Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN. ...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau... A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with this activity during the morning as it moves southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau. Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK. Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility warrants associated severe probabilities. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. ...Dakotas vicinity... A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning. Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN. ...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau... A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with this activity during the morning as it moves southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau. Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK. Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility warrants associated severe probabilities. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity. ...Dakotas vicinity... A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning. Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN. ...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau... A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with this activity during the morning as it moves southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau. Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK. Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility warrants associated severe probabilities. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-053-073-077-079-095- 097-105-113-115-143-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191- 250640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250542
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system appears unlikely while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO 60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL. WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-250600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC295-250600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LIPSCOMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more