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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-250040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC007-009-023-025-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069- 071-075-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-129-135-137-141-145- 147-151-153-159-163-165-167-171-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-193- 195-199-203-250040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN LOGAN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS NORTON OSBORNE Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC059-250040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC007-025-139-250040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS TXC111-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242248Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot with more development possible later this evening. A few storms may produce isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated given the marginal and spatially limited threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot within a weak confluence zone ahead of a cold front that will move into the region later this evening/overnight. The strongest mid-level flow sits much farther to the west, keeping deep-layer shear relatively modest -- effectively 25-30 kts. The current activity will likely intensify as it moves into greater buoyancy, near 1500 J/kg, to the east. More thunderstorm development may occur later this evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches the area. Isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Overall coverage of severe activity should remain low. A WW is not anticipated this evening. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48410310 48970244 48970116 47820109 46610161 46090187 45950282 46080320 46490343 48410310 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a few days near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development
is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0617 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242250Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated storms moving into far northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle should further intensify while other storms develop through the evening. Large hail should be the primary risk, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly during the early/mid-evening hours as a low-level jet increases across the region. Damaging wind potential could also increase if an organized cluster evolves as storms progress southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Clayton NM to 85 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242248Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot with more development possible later this evening. A few storms may produce isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated given the marginal and spatially limited threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed to the west of Minot within a weak confluence zone ahead of a cold front that will move into the region later this evening/overnight. The strongest mid-level flow sits much farther to the west, keeping deep-layer shear relatively modest -- effectively 25-30 kts. The current activity will likely intensify as it moves into greater buoyancy, near 1500 J/kg, to the east. More thunderstorm development may occur later this evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches the area. Isolated large hail and a few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Overall coverage of severe activity should remain low. A WW is not anticipated this evening. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48410310 48970244 48970116 47820109 46610161 46090187 45950282 46080320 46490343 48410310 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 616 TORNADO CO KS NE 242225Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Western and central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase initially across southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and also southwest Kansas through early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The possibility of a couple of tornadoes will also increase through the early/mid-evening hours, particularly across a broad part of western toward north-central Kansas. Damaging winds will also be an increasing concern later this evening as an organized thunderstorm cluster likely evolves and spreads southeastward across northwest/central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Burlington CO to 30 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 24 22:04:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242201Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms developing over the far southeast Colorado vicinity may pose a local hail wind risk, with some upscale growth possible with time as the convection spreads southeastward toward lower elevations. A WW could become necessary. DISCUSSION...Latest visible and radar loops over the central/southern high Plains show isolated storms developing over far southeast Colorado at this time, within an environment featuring moderate instability and an amply veering/sheared profile with height. One of the cells, over southeast Baca County Colorado, appears to have acquired rotation per radar reflectivity/SRM data, consistent with the background environment. With time, expect the developing storms spread southeastward across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, possibly expanding/growing upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS. With initial cells somewhat high-based, and surface dewpoint depressions in excess of 20F in most areas, tornado risk should remain limited. Large hail will be a greater risk with the initial supercell mode, with wind becoming an increasing possibility with time if storms can indeed achieve at least loose linear/bowing organization. We will continue to monitor degree of convective coverage that evolves, with an eye toward possible WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38080286 37760234 37260159 37000050 36129972 35180021 35140208 36480368 37320304 38080286 Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...portions of southwest and south-central Nebraska...central and northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242055Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in intensity after 4 to 5 pm CDT with large hail and damaging winds likely, and a tornado or two possible. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 6 pm CDT/23Z. DISCUSSION...A gradually-deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite imagery across western portions of the KS/NE border at 2045Z. This area is on the southern periphery of a mid-level convectively-enhanced vortex, and in advance of a compact upstream impulse over northeast CO/NE Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and with additional diurnal heating some further increase in surface-based instability is likely. Mid-level northwesterly flow should increase slightly through this evening, resulting in effective shear averaging 35-45 kts. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over northern/western portions of the discussion area over the next few hours in the presence of negligible CINH and weakly confluent low-level flow. Initial mode will include supercells, with large hail, possibly significant, and damaging winds the primary threats. Notable low-level veering/curved hodographs in RAP forecast soundings, primarily across the KS portion of the discussion area, suggests some potential for low-level rotation and perhaps one or two tornadoes with more discrete storms in the first couple of hours after initiation. With time, upscale growth is anticipated as a cold pool organizes and the convective complex moves southeast this evening aided by modestly increasing low-level warm advection. Damaging winds should become the dominant threat, with large hail remaining possible with the strongest updrafts. Trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior to 23Z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40270164 40610078 40710029 40679983 40339925 39989870 39369837 38839833 38379842 37779894 37690023 38740226 39140235 39740226 40270164 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 20:48:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 21:31:22 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242046 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band over the southern semicircle. A combination of satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb. The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and thus weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 335/7. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or so. After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate steering mechanism. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is shifted slightly to the east of the previous track. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated high swells that are now reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 425 FOPZ15 KNHC 242045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 426 WTPZ35 KNHC 242045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 116.5W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 116.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are now spreading onto the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...IVO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 22.3, -116.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN