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Worcester remained in a Stage 1 drought as the water stored in the city’s reservoir was significantly below the 24-year average for this time of year, according to the acting city manager, despite good rainfall in September. Reservoir capacity on Nov. 1 was 60.5%, compared to the 24-year average of 77.2%. The water supply was slightly above the trigger for a Stage 1 drought in early November, year-to-date rainfall amounts were still below average and forecasts for the coming months are uncertain. As a result, the city is still in a Stage 1 drought. MassLive (Springfield, Mass.),Nov 14, 2022 Water restrictions remained in effect for Worcester until the end of October as water levels fell in the city’s ten reservoirs, which held 62.4% of capacity on Oct. 9. Worcester Telegram & Gazette (Mass.), Oct 13, 2022 Worcester entered a Stage 1 drought on Aug. 22 as reservoirs neared 72% capacity. Irrigation systems may not be used between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. The public is encouraged to conserve by not letting water run in kitchens and bathroom sinks. Other parts of Worcester County have adopted restrictions to conserve water amid the drought. Telegram (Worcester, Mass.), Aug, 22, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 13 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 13 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sun Nov 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Middle into Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain Monday afternoon through Monday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Middle/Upper TX Coast into Southern LA... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the southern High Plains before continuing eastward across the southern Plains during the day and then more northeastward into the Mid MS Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading across the southern Plains early Monday and across much of the lower/middle MS Valley by Monday night. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across TX ahead of this shortwave, but moisture scouring resulting from a previous frontal intrusion and largely continental trajectories will likely keep 60s dewpoints confined to the western and central Gulf Coasts. A surface low is expected to develop within the frontal zone in the vicinity of the Middle TX coast by Monday afternoon. This low should then move eastward over the immediate coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. The strongest large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced well north of the Gulf Coast but low-level convergence near the low and warm front should provide enough lift for storm development. The kinematic environment supports supercells, with strong low-level flow beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Given this kinematic support, the overall severe threat will be largely tied to thermodynamics. As such, location of the surface low and warm front will have a large influence on how far inland the warm sector penetrates and where the greater severe risks exist. Currently, the highest potential is anticipated along the near coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur in this areas. A low-probability threat for hail also exists just north of the warm front where a few stronger elevated storms are possible. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are forecast into early/mid afternoon over central and southern Florida. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will lift northeastward across New England through the period. A related cold front extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the central FL Peninsula, where it becomes increasingly diffuse. Along/ahead of the southward-moving front, steep midlevel lapse rates atop upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints (sampled by the 12Z TBW sounding) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across central into southern FL this afternoon. However, weak/shallow frontal ascent should generally limit convective coverage and intensity. Farther west, a closed midlevel low evident in water vapor imagery will dig southeastward across the southwestern states. As DCVA and cold midlevel temperatures preceding this feature overspread northern NM and southwestern CO, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. However, the coverage of this activity appears too minimal for thunderstorm probabilities given marginal midlevel moisture/instability across the region. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain probable this afternoon from the northeast TX Panhandle into northwest OK and west/southwest KS. Morning surface observations already show winds increasing to 15 mph, with further strengthening to 20-25 mph expected. The probability for widespread RH reductions below 25% remains low, but some areas may see periods of 20-25% RH with gusty winds. Elevated conditions are also likely for the Gila region of southeast AZ/southwest NM. However, latest fuel analyses continue to show ERC values near or below seasonal normals for both regions, which will mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners today and reach the southern High Plains by early Monday morning. This will promote a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado. An increase in low-level winds is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains. Recent cooler conditions and precipitation have generally moistened fuels in the region. Some of the stronger, gustier winds are probable in western Kansas. This area could see locally elevated conditions should RH fall low enough during the afternoon. As the trough moves east, stronger northerly mid-level winds will overspread southern California during the afternoon. At the same time, the offshore pressure gradient will increase through Monday morning. Some locally elevated conditions are also possible where fuels have remained drier recently, primarily out of the higher terrain. These areas should be quite limited spatially given the past weeks rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sat Nov 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broadly cyclonic flow aloft across CONUS on Sunday. The lead shortwave is expected to begin the period over the Upper OH Valley, before then ejecting northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. A pair of phased shortwaves are expected farther west. The northern shortwave will extend from southern Saskatchewan through central MT early Sunday, while the southern shortwave extends from the western Great Basin through central CA. Expectation is for the northern wave to move eastward throughout the day, moving through eastern MT and into the northern Plains. The southern wave is expected to move more southeastward, progressing across the Four Corners/Southwest into the southern High Plains. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the southern shortwave, but scant low to mid-level moisture and generally cold profiles should limit buoyancy. As a result, despite strong forcing for ascent, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10%. Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of this wave as well, with increasing low-level southerly flow across the southern Plains. Even so, low-level moisture return will be minimal due to the previous frontal intrusion. Low-level moisture will be in place over the FL Peninsula ahead of a weakening cold front. However, convergence along the front will be weak and low/mid-level temperatures will remain warm, limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level trough currently centered over the Upper/Middle MS Valley will gradually deamplify as it tracks east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity through the period. Within the broad downstream cyclonic flow aloft, water vapor imagery reveals an embedded impulse tracking northeastward across New England. As the associated lobe of ascent overspreads weak/elevated instability over eastern ME (per GYX observed 12Z sounding), isolated lightning flashes will be possible into early afternoon. In the low-levels, a cold front extends southwestward along the Appalachians into the Central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms are possible over southeast LA -- where lower 60s dewpoints reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. However much of this activity may remain confined to the Gulf waters. Farther east, weakly confluent low-level flow coupled with diurnal heating of rich low-level moisture should support a few thunderstorms across the southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. These storms should generally be focused along the east coast -- where a very weak sea breeze should favor stronger convergence/mesoscale ascent. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow/shear (evident in the MFL 12Z observed sounding) should limit convective intensity/organization. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today for much of the CONUS. Dry conditions are noted across portions of the southern/central High Plains and the lower CO River Valley, but weak winds are expected for these regions. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 11/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... A brief period of shortwave ridging aloft will occur within the Plains today. Through the day, however, southerly surface winds will be on the increase as the next shortwave trough moves into the Great Basin by early Sunday morning. With the strongest winds offset from afternoon RH minima and fuels generally unperceptive, fire weather concerns will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Recent rains have caused the Mississippi River to rise with the water level cresting about 11 feet on Nov. 11. The Missouri Drought Assessment Committee met and voted to recommend forming a Commercial Navigation Impact team as the Mississippi River is a critical link for the entire U.S. KFVS12 (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), Nov 11, 2022

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ILM TO 35 NNW ILM TO 30 WSW CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944 ..WEINMAN..11/11/22 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-025-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057- 061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103- 105-107-117-119-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151- 153-157-159-163-165-167-169-177-179-181-183-185-187-191-195- 111840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO Read more

WW 569 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 111115Z - 112000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and eastern North Carolina Northeastern South Carolina Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The tornado threat well northeast of T.D. Nicole's center is expected to expand considerably northward/inland through early/mid afternoon, as Nicole accelerates into the western Carolinas, and its outer convective bands interact with a broadly destabilizing air mass. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Florence SC to 45 miles east northeast of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 12035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A semi-amplified/progressive upper-flow pattern will exist over the CONUS on Saturday. A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes and Ontario. Isolated thunderstorm potential, associated with a minimally unstable environment, may linger across coastal New England Saturday morning prior to the cold front clearing the Eastern Seaboard. A few thunderstorms could occur along the middle Gulf Coast near the advancing front Saturday morning, although the greater probability and coverage of thunderstorms will be over the western/northern Gulf of Mexico. Across Florida, the glancing cyclonic influence of the Midwest upper trough, along with some increase in low-level convergence and a residually moist air mass across the central/southern Peninsula, will contribute to the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday. A closed mid-level low with related -25C to -30C 500mb cold core will spread southeastward from western Oregon toward the Great Basin through Saturday night. Steepening lapse rates could influence some convective precipitation into parts of the Great Basin/Nevada, although marginal thermodynamic characteristics and a limited potential for charge separation should keep the potential for thunderstorms low. ..Guyer.. 11/11/2022 Read more

MD 1944 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 569... FOR NORTHEAST NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Areas affected...Northeast NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 569... Valid 111706Z - 111900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across Tornado Watch 569, with a locally higher risk across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows pockets of cloud clearing/thinning amid rich boundary layer moisture (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA. Here, surface winds are favorably backed beneath deep/strong southerly winds per RAX/AKQ VWPs. This wind profile is supporting modest low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity, characterized by 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per aforementioned VWPs. RAX radar data depicts a broken band of organizing supercell structures spreading northward into this increasingly favorable environment, and some modest intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon given increasing boundary-layer theta-e and strengthening low-level shear. Convection has generally been tracking northward at around 30 mph, though any discrete/semi-discrete cells that track more north-northeastward should pose the greatest tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 11/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36807824 37037817 37277800 37527770 37667744 37707702 37527655 37287619 36967596 36427576 36117576 35827625 35767675 35887733 36037775 36207804 36527823 36807824 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111703
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Fri Nov 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky