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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Additional isolated severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts are possible across parts of western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern Plains... Decaying remnants of overnight convection will move across the central/southern Plains vicinity during the morning. Cloud cover is likely to inhibit convective redevelopment for much of the day, but south/southeasterly low level flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across much of OK/KS westward toward a surface trough across far eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover will remain across much of NE to the north of an effective warm front just north of the NE/KS border. However, partial clearing west of the I-35 corridor in OK/KS will aid in a corridor of strong destabilization by late afternoon. While the main mid/upper level trough will shift eastward across the northern Plains, guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave impulse will migrate through northwest flow aloft from eastern CO into western KS/OK. Forecast soundings depict unusually strong vertical shear for this time of year, with effective shear values from 35-50 kt. Furthermore, strong, vertically veering winds through around 3 km will result in large, curved low-level hodographs. Finally, during the evening, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 40 kt across the southern Plains. Most guidance, CAMs and otherwise, are remarkably consistent in developing isolated cells by late afternoon/early evening in convergent low level flow near a strengthening surface low over eastern CO. Initial cells are expected in the vicinity of the CO/KS border into southwest NE and perhaps southward along the surface trough toward the OK/northern TX Panhandles. Any cells that remain discrete during this initial development will pose a threat for very large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and supercell wind profiles. Additionally, aforementioned low level hodographs and deep boundary-layer moisture will support potential for a couple of tornadoes. As ascent increases with the approach of the midlevel shortwave in conjunction with the increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to grow upscale into one or more bowing segments tracking east/southeast across KS/OK and perhaps the northeast TX Panhandle. Given the overall thermodynamic environment and the expectation that a strong cold pool will be generated given the extent of forecast convection, widespread damaging winds appear possible across portions of western and central KS/OK into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening and nighttime hours. ...Western North Dakota... The main upper-level shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains today. However, stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the west of the northern Plains. Midlevel lapse rates also are forecast to be somewhat modest, from around 6.5-7.5 C/km, despite stronger height falls and cooling aloft after 00z. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop by late afternoon. Isolated cells are expected to develop as ascent increases toward 00z. Effective shear around 25-35 kt will be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak 0-3 km winds will also support a few strong downbursts. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/24/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central coast of Mexico near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

I-17 is open at this time. Firefighters will continue to conduct holding and mop up operations.

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LBL TO 25 N LBL TO 30 NNE LBL TO 10 S GCK TO 5 NW DDC. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC069-119-175-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY MEADE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 232350Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Friday evening from 650 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Discrete supercell over southwest Kansas may evolve into a slow-moving cluster along a remnant outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Elkhart KS to 30 miles east southeast of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613...WW 614... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Grams Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DHT TO 40 ENE DHT TO 15 E GUY TO 50 WNW GCK TO 30 NW LAA TO 40 ESE LIC TO 10 WSW ITR TO 25 NNW ITR TO 25 NW AKO. ..WENDT..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-061-075-095-115-121-125-240340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIOWA LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-240340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC057-240340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SNY TO 20 SW AIA TO 45 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE GCC. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240400Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC033-123-240400- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE MORRILL WYC011-240400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:31:08 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also warmed during the past few hours. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should cause the storm to gradually weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low. Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt. There is little change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Ivo should continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 339 FOPZ15 KNHC 240234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 115.5W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 115.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...615... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...615... Valid 240208Z - 240415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613, 615 continues. SUMMARY...Marked downward trend in storm intensity in from east-central Colorado to southwest Kansas in the last hour has reduced overall severe threat. Localized strong gusts and isolated marginally severe hail may still occur, but WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. DISCUSSION...Storms along the outflow boundary west of Dodge City, KS have generally remained stationary with some tendency to move southward into more buoyant air. The amount of convective overturning that has occurred in southwestern Kansas will diminish the overall severe threat. In east-central Colorado, the slow moving cluster of storms has continued to move into more stable air behind the outflow boundary. Trends in radar imagery has generally shown a decrease in storm intensity as high reflectivity cores aloft have diminished in the last half hour. A modest increase in the low-level jet this evening may allow some of this activity to pose a sporadic/localized threat for a strong wind gust or marginally severe hail. Given the observational trends, WW 613 and WW 615 will be allowed to expire at 04Z. ..Wendt.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37210133 38280301 38720353 39570369 39910313 39900233 39890205 38590019 37369995 37170017 37100076 37070112 37210133 Read more

MD 1844 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240140Z - 240345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two. Greatest risk will exist from near Pampa, TX to near Gage, OK. A new WW is not expected for downstream areas from current activity. DISCUSSION...Recently measured severe wind gusts at Dumas, TX (50 kts) and Beaver, OK (61 kts) indicate that that some risk for severe wind gusts will persist into early evening. The greatest risk appears to be from the Pampa, TX vicinity to Gage, OK where dewpoints have remained in the low 60s F to around 70 F in Hemphill, TX, minimizing MLCIN in this area. However, with continued boundary layer cooling and weak upper-level support, this threat is not likely to continue for more than another hour or two. The 00Z AMA sounding shows weak MLCIN with increasing inhibition noted in Oklahoma per the 00Z OUN sounding. A new WW is not anticipated for areas downstream of the ongoing activity. ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35360285 36350198 36950046 36869952 36289898 35019977 34640104 34580236 34970283 35360285 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RDU TO 10 SE GSO TO 30 SE RZZ. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-063-069-081-127-135-240200- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE DURHAM FRANKLIN GUILFORD NASH ORANGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE RDU TO 10 SE GSO TO 30 SE RZZ. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z. ..SMITH..08/24/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-063-069-081-127-135-240200- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE DURHAM FRANKLIN GUILFORD NASH ORANGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more