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The Kingston Stage II drought emergency has been in effect since early August and was lifted on Nov. 9. The town was in a drought alert as the level of Cooper Lake was low, necessitating voluntary water conservation. The water level at Cooper Lake was lowered 10 feet for dam construction, which unfortunately coincided with drought and extreme heat. Daily Freeman (Kingstown, N.Y.), Nov 9, 2022 As the level of Cooper Lake continued to fall, the Kingston Board of Water Commissioners on Aug. 10 voted to declare Stage II of the current drought emergency. On top of previous restrictions, it was prohibited to use city water to fill for maintain water levels in swimming pools and water lawns and golf courses. Despite declaring a water emergency last week, water use has not fallen. Cooper Lake has been 10 feet low since July 2021 to allow mandated construction work on the dam and cannot be refilled until the work on the dam is completed. Daily Freeman (N.Y.), Aug 11, 2022 The Board of Water Commissioners declared a drought emergency for Kingston, based on the water level of Cooper Lake reservoir. The first stage of mandatory water usage restrictions took effect immediately as just a few months’ worth of water remained in the reservoir. Water supplies to Ulster will end, and temporary pipes are being connected to tap into NYC’s Ashokan Reservoir. Daily Freeman (Kingston, N.Y.), Aug 2, 2022

A state of emergency was declared for Klamath County on Nov. 8 as drought caused more than 100 domestic wells to run dry. Klamath Falls Herald and News (Ore.), Nov 8, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 9 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 9 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes should occur Thursday into Thursday night over parts of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas in association with Tropical Cyclone Nicole. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also appear possible across portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with damaging winds the main threat. ...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... The latest track from the NHC shows Tropical Cyclone Nicole over the central Florida peninsula Thursday morning. The track shows a northeastward turn through the day and the remnant surface low somewhere near central Georgia by 12Z Friday. This inland penetration of the center of the cyclone should allow a warm/moist warm sector to advance well inland across northeast Florida, eastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas. Low 70s dewpoints are likely with temperatures in the mid 70s which should be sufficient for 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the weakening surface low, guidance suggest the 925-850mb flow should maintain intensity of 50-55 knots through the day Thursday. In addition, some guidance suggests the low-level jet may strengthen after 06Z Friday morning as the tropical remnants start to interact with the larger trough to the west and low-level flow veers. At minimum, this should maintain a tornado threat through Thursday night/Friday into southeastern North Carolina. Additionally, it could potentially increase tornadic potential, particularly if surface winds can remain backed northeast of the cyclone while the low-level jet strengthens/veers, enlarging hodographs. Therefore, the slight risk has been expanded to include southeast North Carolina, primarily for the 06Z to 12Z period. The highest tornado potential will likely be near the Georgia and southern South Carolina coast. Shear and instability are expected to be greatest in this region with favorable diurnal timing during the afternoon hours Thursday. Most forecast soundings in this region show STP values around 1 with some guidance peaking around 2.5 for a few hours. In addition, most CAM guidance shows one or more well developed convective bands in the vicinity of this most favorable environment Thursday afternoon. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving surface low will move across the Upper-Midwest on Thursday. Unseasonably high low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector (low to mid 60s F dewpoints). As the upper trough advances east, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front across the eastern Plains into the Upper-Midwest by early afternoon as convective temperatures are met. Mid level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity. However, storms will be developing within a moderately strong wind field with a ~45 knot low-level jet. Therefore, some severe wind gusts may be possible with these storms, particularly those along the front whose updraft will be supported by the frontal convergence. Additionally, strong low-level speed shear may support a brief tornado threat, but this threat should be mitigated by veered surface flow and weak lapse rates. The duration of the severe weather threat will be limited by the narrow warm sector. Due to the fast storm motion, most storms will likely move east of the best low-level moisture by 22-23Z and quickly face their demise. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Wed Nov 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical area in eastern CO based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen across the Central Plains on Wednesday with strong surface winds and very dry conditions across eastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska just west of the dryline. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with a few localized areas approaching Extremely Critical in eastern Colorado. Surface high pressure will bring very dry conditions across portions of the eastern US with Elevated fire weather concerns in Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. ...Eastern CO, Southeastern WY, and Southwestern NE... Critical fire weather is expected in eastern Colorado on Wednesday with the most favorable conditions for rapid growth of new fires across eastern Colorado. In this region, southwest surface winds sustained at 20-25 mph (locally higher around 30 mph gusting up to 50 mph) will combine with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 10-15 percent (locally dropping below 10 percent). In addition to the dry conditions and strong winds, temperatures will be above normal, with highs approaching the mid to upper 70s. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs in the 80-90th percentile for dryness. Fuels, in combination with the dry and gusty conditions, support a Critical delineation. A few isolated areas may briefly approach Extremely Critical. Outside of the Critical area, Elevated fire weather can be expected across far eastern Colorado, southwestern Wyoming, and southwestern Nebraska. Winds are expected to be around 15-20 mph with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent. Trends will need to be monitored closely in the position of the dryline and potential extension of the Elevated area. ...Eastern KY and West Virginia... Very dry conditions are expected across portions of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia on Wednesday, with a corridor of minimum relative humidity approaching 20-25 percent (locally as low as 15 percent). Winds in this region will be around 10-15 mph. Given the very dry fuels (above 80th percentile for dryness), warm temperatures, and recent fire activity across western and eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, an Elevated delineation is supported even with marginal winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop this evening and persist tonight over parts of eastern Florida. Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur before dawn tomorrow in parts of the central Plains. ...Eastern FL... Tropical Storm Nicole will track eastward and approach the east coast of the FL Peninsula tonight. As the center approaches, surface winds along the east-central/northeast coast will back to easterly and eventually southeasterly, aiding in the transport of rich low-level moisture and high theta-e air. This, along with rapidly strengthening shear profiles, will result in an increasing risk of a few tornadoes. The threat is not expected to begin until after midnight tonight. ...NE/KS... A strong surface boundary extends from eastern CO into central NE today. A deep surface low is expected to form this afternoon in eastern CO as an upper trough approaches, then track eastward along the boundary tonight. Most model solutions suggest a narrow band of shallow convection will form in vicinity of this low as it tracks eastward across parts of southern NE/northern KS. Instability will be weak, but perhaps sufficient for locally gusty/damaging winds along the line - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/09/2022 Read more

Drought in Oklahoma significantly affected forage quality and quantity this year with many producers baling failed crops and other grass varieties not usually harvested as forage. Consequently, overall hay quality is lower. “During the last drought, there was a lot of hay baled very mature along roadsides and abandoned fields with the lowest density setting the baler could handle to produce light, low-density bales then transported across two states. Hay should be tested before purchase and priced per ton instead of by the bale,” according to an Oklahoma State University Extension beef nutrition specialist. A laboratory test is a critical step in determining the nutritive value of any lot of hay offered for sale. Oklahoma State University (Stillwater, Okla.), Nov 7, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 8 17:58:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Areas affected...portions of coastal Southern California. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081736Z - 082000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shoreward moving bands of low-topped convection may pose an isolated risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and or a brief tornado through the early afternoon. A weather watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Morning water-vapor imagery showed a well-developed upper trough and strong cyclonically curved jet streak moving onshore across portions of the West Coast. A cold front and convergence band associated with the main upper wave are forecast to move toward the near coast supporting a couple of bands of low-topped convection through the morning and early afternoon. Moist onshore flow will allow for weak destabilization in the lowest few kilometers with forecast soundings showing 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the front. Very strong low/mid level wind fields will also be present with 0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 kt favorable for storm organization into a QLCS. Orographic convergence may result in backing of the near-surface winds over the LA Basin and near shore aiding in a localized risk of a few strong/damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado over the next few hours. Given very limited buoyancy and uncertainty with storm coverage, a weather watch is not expected. ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/08/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX... LAT...LON 34922068 34891904 34621766 34001718 33591722 33321744 33561804 33831888 33941939 33911981 33922022 33992062 34272084 34712093 34922068 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes appear possible mainly Wednesday evening/night into early Thursday morning across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Tropical Cyclone Nicole will likely be centered just east of the northern Bahamas early Wednesday morning. Expectations is that this cyclone will make steady westward progress throughout the day and overnight, reaching the coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Northwesterly flow will strengthen through the day as the system approaches. However, thermodynamics throughout the western periphery of the system are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, limiting the overall severe potential throughout the day. An increased severe potential is anticipated later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as greater low-level moisture attendant to the center of the cyclone moves into the coastal areas. This increase in moisture/buoyancy may result in few strong, more sustained updrafts and the potential for a tornado or two. Primary threat area is currently expected to extend from the Lake Okeechobee vicinity to south of Jacksonville Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Upper Midwest early Wednesday amid a warm-air advection regime fostered by an expansive low-level jet over the Plains. Strong vertical shear will be in place but poor lapse rates and modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential limited. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains throughout the day as a strong shortwave trough pivots through the deep mean troughing over the western CONUS. Resultant surface low is then forecast move northeastward across NE and through the Mid MO Valley overnight. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of a sharpening warm front associated with low, primarily from western SD across MN. Buoyancy will be slightly better than with the early morning storms, so a few storms may become strong enough to produce hail. However, coverage is still expected to remain less than 5%. Shallow convection in also anticipated along the front as it moves across NE and north-central KS early Thursday morning. Depth of the updrafts should be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, likely limiting lightning potential. Even so, given the robust low-level flow in place, a few strong, convectively augmented gusts are still possible. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level low deepens across the West Coast, lee troughing will continue to bring gusty surface winds and dry conditions across eastern Colorado. Across the eastern US, surface gradients will increase between a surface high over Ontario/Quebec and developing Subtropical Storm Nicole, bringing dry and breezy conditions across portions of Central South Carolina and Georgia. ...Eastern Colorado... South to southwesterly surface winds sustained at 20 mph (with gusts 30-40 mph) along with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible on Tuesday afternoon. Fuels are drying, with ERCs approaching the 80th percentile, especially across the plains of eastern Colorado. Given the duration and uncertainty on exactly how widespread the driest conditions will be, an Elevated delineation was included. Localized brief critical conditions may be possible. ...Central South Carolina and eastern Georgia... Northeasterly winds will be sustained around 10-15 mph with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 25-30 percent across portions of central South Carolina and eastern Georgia. Fuels in this region are marginal, given recent rainfall, but some drying has been reported in the 10-hour fuels. Given the winds and low afternoon relative humidity, an Elevated delineation has been included. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated gusty/damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible in parts of southern California this afternoon and evening. ...Los Angeles Basin... A large upper trough is in place today across the western US. Multiple weak cold fronts are sweeping eastward from the offshore waters onto coastal CA today, with one noted currently over the LA Basin, and another approaching Point Conception. This second wave is expected to move into the LA Basin around peak heating this afternoon, accompanied with a narrow line of showers and low-topped thunderstorms. Forecast soundings suggest 300-500 J/kg of CAPE ahead of the front, along with very strong low/mid level winds. Orographic effects may result in local backing of the near-surface winds over the LA Basin, enhancing convergence and aiding in a localized risk of a few damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. Therefore have added low wind and tornado probabilities for this area - mainly during the 21-03z period. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/08/2022 Read more

Intensifying drought and strong winds have led to high fire activity in Nebraska, setting the state up to possibly see the second worst year on record for wildfires. Without more moisture this fall and winter, the fires are likely to continue into 2023. About 200,000 acres of grasslands, croplands and forests have burned so far, compared with about 502,000 acres in 2012, another year of intense drought. Nebraska Examiner (Lincoln), Nov 7, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 7 17:39:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 7 17:39:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...California/Nevada... An upper trough/low will progress slowly eastward over the western CONUS on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent should aid convective development across parts of CA/NV through the period. Instability is forecast to remain limited and convection is expected to be low-topped beneath a warm layer located around 7-10 kft, but isolated lightning flashes will be possible across the region. Low/mid-level winds will be fairly strong across parts of central/southern CA into southern NV, but very weak instability (MUCAPE 300 J/kg or less) should limit the threat for more robust convection. Nevertheless, forecast hodographs indicate some rotation will be possible in showers/isolated thunderstorms, especially as they move onshore the southern/central CA coast. Gusty winds may accompany any more robust convection that can develop, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in a low-level warm advection regime. Southerly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains though the period, though only modest boundary-layer dewpoints are expected with westward extent into the southern High Plains. Deep layer shear will be favorable for organized convection. However, severe potential appears rather limited/conditional given nebulous forcing for ascent (with neutral to slightly rising heights), and a low-level inversion limiting surface-based convective potential. Some small hail could accompany the strongest cells across OK, but convective initiation further west into parts of western TX/eastern NM is questionable. Severe probabilities are not expected at this time given the low-end and conditional nature of the threat. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes early Tuesday. As the upper trough shifts east over the western states, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate across the northern Plains and shift the upper ridge eastward into Quebec and the northeast U.S. Modest height falls/large-scale ascent, and increasing midlevel moisture will support the development of showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms. However, instability will remain limited and severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 11/07/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Mon Nov 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi