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WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N AMA TO 10 W EHA. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-139-250540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TEXAS TXC195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242250Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated storms moving into far northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle should further intensify while other storms develop through the evening. Large hail should be the primary risk, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly during the early/mid-evening hours as a low-level jet increases across the region. Damaging wind potential could also increase if an organized cluster evolves as storms progress southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Clayton NM to 85 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1852 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 250404Z - 250600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk is slowly diminishing, but potential for locally damaging winds is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. A replacement for tornado watch #616, with a new severe thunderstorm watch, will likely be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows earlier supercell storms over portions of the watch diminishing in organization cellularly. However, an organizing band of storms is now indicated over north-central Kansas, moving south-southeastward at 25 kt. With time, this band of storms is expected to expand, moving across central Kansas and into northern Oklahoma -- aided by an axis of moderate instability, and a 25 to 35 kt southerly low-level jet as indicated by recent VWPs. Though the boundary layer has diurnally cooled, dewpoints largely in the low 70s across the area suggest potential for locally damaging winds nonetheless. As such, tornado watch #616 will be replaced by a new severe thunderstorm watch, covering a larger portion of central Kansas east of the current watch. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37020161 37590128 40039952 40159835 39319743 36669607 36909819 37020161 Read more

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...Northwest/north-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 250345Z - 250545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind risk will exist across northwest Oklahoma late this evening, although the primary severe potential may not occur until overnight across northern Oklahoma. A watch issuance is uncertain in the short term, but one could be needed late tonight/overnight. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has shown recent signs of intensification near and just north of the Kansas/Oklahoma state line, roughly 50 miles south of Dodge City or 50 miles northwest of Woodward, OK as of 1030 PM CDT. This activity is occurring near the anvil edge of other storms farther north across southwest Kansas, with all of this activity influenced by the southern edge of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough across western Kansas. Low-level inhibition has increased this evening across northwest Oklahoma as the boundary layer has cooled, although a corridor of ample low-level moisture/instability persists. It is possible that the storms moving into northwest Oklahoma further intensify/organize over the next hour or so, but at this time, it appears any related hail/wind risk may remain fairly localized. Short-term convective trends will continue to be monitored, but a relatively higher severe potential may not occur across a broader part of northern Oklahoma until the overnight hours as an MCS moves south-southeastward across central Kansas. ..Guyer.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36319991 36950006 37059981 36999793 36289753 36319991 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EHA TO 35 N GCK TO 45 SW HLC TO 35 WNW HLC TO 45 WNW CNK. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-081-083- 093-097-101-105-119-123-129-135-141-145-151-159-163-165-167-175- 179-185-187-189-195-250340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL MORTON NESS OSBORNE PAWNEE PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE TCC TO 10 W EHA. ..GOSS..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-025-139-250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS TXC111-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-250340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 616 TORNADO CO KS NE 242225Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Western and central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase initially across southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and also southwest Kansas through early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The possibility of a couple of tornadoes will also increase through the early/mid-evening hours, particularly across a broad part of western toward north-central Kansas. Damaging winds will also be an increasing concern later this evening as an organized thunderstorm cluster likely evolves and spreads southeastward across northwest/central Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Burlington CO to 30 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 03:31:18 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated. However, with the degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a more stable environment. Thus weakening should occur overnight, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north- northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The cyclone should decelerate and turn northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated swells that are now reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...IVO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOON... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 23.4, -116.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOON... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 116.6W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 116.6 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are now spreading onto the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

MD 1850 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 250209Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to increase across portions of the WW area in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...While storms which developed earlier across southeast Colorado have diminished, new convective development is ongoing over southwestern Kansas, with storms moving south-southeastward. The convection is occurring in response to a strengthening low-level jet, and as such, it appears possible that some of this convection will affect portions of WW 617 in the next couple of hours. The main risk with this convection, assuming the expected upscale growth, would be locally damaging wind gusts. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37010302 36949984 35409996 35580304 37010302 Read more

MD 1849 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Areas affected...western Kansas and adjacent portion of southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 250139Z - 250345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing at this time across Tornado Watch 616 -- including potential for an isolated tornado. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a noted increase in convection over the past hour across western Kansas, which is correlated with the beginnings of an observed increase in low-level flow. As the jet continues to strengthen this evening, and given the moist/moderately unstable airmass in place across this region, a continuation of this convective increase is expected. While storms remain isolated, and continue to exhibit supercell structures, an isolated tornado remains possible, along with locally damaging winds and large hail. With time, wind risk is expected to increase, as upscale growth of convection into an MCS continues to appear likely. ..Goss.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 40360193 40349914 39629786 38209804 37069835 37040202 37970214 39080225 40360193 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible. ...KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight... A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours. ...ND this evening... A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening. ..Smith.. 08/25/2019 Read more