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At approximately 8:30pm on August 17th, Texas A & M Forest Service resources were requested to assist with a wildland fire. The lightning- caused fire is burning in Stephens County. The fire is at 30 acres and is 20% contained. There are no closures, no evacuations, and no structures threatened at this

Nebraska auctions have had a constant stream of weigh up cows and bulls for the past year as ranchers cull deeper than usual to ease pressure on withered pastures. Tri-State Livestock News (Belle Fourche, S.D.), Aug 19, 2022

Drought and reduced forage production in the central and southern Plains have producers continuing to sell livestock. The market for cattle remained strong. Producers are trying to find alternate sources of feed for the livestock like drought-affected corn or cover crops because hay is certainly in short supply. Cattle runs in Holdenville, Oklahoma this summer were double the usual size as lots of cows, light calves and pairs were sold early. Some of the older ranchers were not expected to ever buy back into the business. Tri-State Livestock News (Belle Fourche, S.D.), Aug 19, 2022

The level of the Guadalupe River in Kerrville has slightly restricted pedal boat operation on the river to avoid running aground amid extreme drought. However, the tourism industry in Kerrville was thriving overall. KABB-TV FOX 29 San Antonio, Texas, Aug. 19, 2022

Corn and soybeans in Isanti County were thirsty and in need of rain. The area never fully recovered from drought in 2021. Moderate drought at present has left corn about three feet shorter than it ought to be, so some will be chopped for feed as the farmer anticipates a corn yield of 100 bushels per acre rather than 200 bpa. Overall farm income has been halved. KSTP-TV ABC 5 Minneapolis (Minn.), Aug 19, 2022

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

Jack County requested support for a fire estimated at 100 acres in rough terrain. Fire is very active in thick fuels at this time and six homes said to be threatened. Texas A&M Forest Service Task Force out of Burkburnett and TIFMAS Strike Team have arrived to support along with Air Resources. Fire is located two miles north of the community of Joplin in Jack County. No road closures or

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 20 17:54:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Areas affected...southeastern Iowa into west central/central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201751Z - 202015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong storms appear likely to develop through late afternoon and may pose a risk for primarily marginally severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts. It is not certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Moderately large mixed-layer CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) appears to be developing to the south-southeast of a broad, weak surface cyclone centered over east central Iowa. This is occurring beneath a residual pocket of colder mid-level air, in the wake of one short wave impulse pivoting northeastward into southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region and ahead of a trailing impulse digging across Iowa. Southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer across the destabilizing environment is on the order of 20-30+ kt, and may still be marginally sufficient to support occasional supercell structures. Scattered thunderstorm development is already underway, and a gradual further increase and intensification of storms seems probable through the remainder of the afternoon, in response to additional daytime heating and large-scale forcing for ascent. Ambient vertical vorticity near and within a corridor south-southeast of the surface low might contribute to some risk for a brief, weak tornado in stronger cells. However, low-level hodographs are generally small, and the more prominent potential convective hazards appear to be marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 08/20/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39859109 40989151 41899108 41728963 40288765 39478820 39188905 39199065 39859109 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the mid and upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will continue to move eastward and become more of an open wave Saturday into Sunday. This trough is expected to undergo some weakening through the day on Sunday. A weak surface low may develop in central/eastern Ohio by late afternoon/evening. A cold front will continue to push eastward through the Ohio and parts of the Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio Valley... Cloud cover is expected to be prevalent across the region. Despite these clouds, cold temperatures aloft and perhaps some areas of muted surface heating will support in the neighborhood of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally higher buoyancy is possible into Kentucky/Tennessee where cloud cover will probably be less widespread. By afternoon widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front. Effective shear of 20-25 kts farther north to near 30 kts south (nearly perpendicular to the front) will support marginally organized multicell and isolated supercell storms. Strong/damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Given the weak surface low, surface winds may be backed in parts of eastern/southern Ohio. There, a conditional threat for a brief tornado will exist. ...Arizona... Numerous storms are again expected on Sunday. Some guidance does suggest that a cluster of storms will develop along the Mogollon Rim and move off the terrain to the south/southwest. However, given the high PWAT values and potential for cloud cover, low-level lapse rates may not become overly steep. If greater heating can occur by tomorrow afternoon, low-end wind probabilities may become warranted. ..Wendt.. 08/20/2022 Read more

MD 1702 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN IN INTO WESTERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Areas affected...Eastern IN into western OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201725Z - 201930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail will increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster over northeast IN has shown some intensification early this afternoon, and this trend may continue as storms move into a destabilizing environment across western OH, where diurnal heating of a moist environment is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Modest southwesterly midlevel flow along the eastern flank of the deep-layer cyclone across eastern IA is supporting 20-30 kt of effective shear, which will support the potential for semi-organized multicell clusters through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, especially as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream this afternoon. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear should temper the hail threat to some extent, though with seasonably cool temperatures aloft, some isolated hail will also be possible. Watch issuance is possible this afternoon in response to these threats, depending on observational trends with the developing storm cluster and downstream destabilization. ..Dean/Bunting.. 08/20/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40418517 41308487 41668381 41488282 40908269 39828340 39458401 39778486 39978503 40418517 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A well-defined area of low pressure, the remnants of Ivette, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next couple of days
as it moves generally westward, well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-upper-level trough will move east slowly across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and the western ridge will continue to build north into southwest Canada. Much of the contiguous United States will be seasonably cool, moist, or both. Additionally, absent any strong mid-upper-level height gradients or surface-pressure gradients, large-scale winds will remain generally light. Thunderstorms are likely atop dry fuels in Idaho and Montana, but overall high coverage and sufficiently moist precipitable water values should support wetting rains. Thus, large-scale fire weather concerns should be minimal on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA ACROSS WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across central Illinois and from eastern Indiana into western Ohio. ..Midwest/Ohio Valley/Ozarks... A weak surface low over central IA will move slowly southeast through tonight as an associated cold front also moves east, extending from west-central IL into central MO and southern KS by 00z. Despite ongoing precipitation/cloud cover over portions of IL/IN, pockets of more substantial destabilization are expected by afternoon, especially from southern/eastern IN into southwest OH where slightly higher boundary layer moisture exists and stronger heating is expected. With minimal CINH by early/mid afternoon, more concentrated thunderstorm development or re-intensification is expected near the cold front/upper low across eastern IA/central IL, with a second area over eastern IN/western OH. Elsewhere, more isolated strong/severe storms will be possible within the Marginal Risk area near and in advance of the front with severe winds the primary hazard. Southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to effective shear ranging from 30-35 kts this afternoon which will support multicells and a few transient supercell structures. Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, with instances of large hail also possible primarily over eastern IA/central IL where cooler mid-level temperatures will exist. Some potential for low-level rotation may exist with supercell structures east of the surface low this afternoon, and have retained the low tornado probabilities in this area. ...South Texas... A low over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to move northwestward toward Deep South Texas. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory for additional forecast details regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. While a modest strengthening of southeasterly low-level winds may occur, present indications are that the low/mid-level wind field will likely remain sufficiently weak to preclude a tornado risk. ..Bunting/Dean.. 08/20/2022 Read more

The Lake Creek Fire is very likely a lightning holdover from the August 11, 2022 storm system that ignited multiple fires in the area.At approximately 3:30 on August 17, 2022, Texas A&M Forest Service-Mineral Wells, responded to a request for assistance by Palo Pinto County officials. Forward progression had been stopped by Palo Pinto County crews.The fires burns on private property. It is estimated at 10 acres and is 70% contained.  There are no closures, no evacuations, and no structures are

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 19 18:03:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 19 18:03:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto