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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST ND...AND EASTERN KY AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe hail and wind will spread across portions of the central High Plains, northwest North Dakota, and eastern Kentucky and vicinity this afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains this afternoon/evening... Embedded perturbations will move eastward toward the central High Plains, around the north-northwest periphery of the persistent midlevel high over the central/southern Plains. Low-level upslope flow will help maintain boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s as low-level lapse rates steepen with afternoon heating/mixing. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep within the monsoonal moisture plume, but steepening low-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few storm clusters capable of producing strong/isolated severe outflow winds this afternoon/evening. ...Northwest ND late this afternoon/evening... A diffuse surface cyclone/lee trough will persist through the afternoon near the MT/ND border, near the southern edge of the main belt of mid-upper westerlies over the southern Prairie Provinces. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s across western ND, near the east edge of the deeper mixing across MT, will support moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and the potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the international border by late afternoon. Assuming a storm or two forms and moves southeastward into ND, the environment will conditionally favor some potential for supercells/small clusters capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds for a few hours late this afternoon through late evening. ...Southern IN to eastern KY/western VA this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cyclone will move southeastward from IN toward eastern KY, in advance of an embedded speed max digging southeastward over IL/IN. Though clouds will slow surface heating some and midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Deep-layer northwesterly shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized/supercell storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage. ...South TX this afternoon... A tropical low is moving inland over south TX as of late morning, with some banded convective structures to the east of the center. Since the low is already inland and is not expected to intensify, wind profiles/vertical shear are likewise not expected to strengthen. A weakly rotating storm or two may occur near the lower TX coast as the convective bands spread westward/inland, but the threat for tornadoes is too marginal to warrant the addition of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 08/14/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Aug 2022 14:39:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Aug 2022 15:22:25 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 17(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141438 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 There has been little change in the structure of the tropical depression since the previous advisory. The center remains exposed to the northeast of the associated deep convection due to the presence of moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear. Since there has been no change in the system's organization, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Some of the objective and subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS suggest the system could be slightly stronger, but given the lack of overall organization it is best to stay on the conservative side until scatterometer data is potentially available later today. The vertical wind shear affecting the system is forecast to increase within the next 24 hours, and that is likely to prevent strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest bursts of deep convection are likely to continue over the western portion of the circulation through tonight. After that time, the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and gradual weakening should occur through midweek. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to cause the cyclone to turn westward later today. As the low weakens it is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.3N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 113.1W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) A slightly slower westward to west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. The depression is forecast degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.3, -113.1 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

The Yellow Brick Fire, caused by a lightning strike on August 11, 2022, is located just outside the city of Graford, in Palo Pinto County. It is 109 acres and 75% contained. Weather: Hot and dry conditions continue in the region with triple digit temperatures expected this afternoon w light east winds. Minimum afternoon humidity will drop to 30%. No precipitation is anticipated over the fire area today. Today, forty-five personnel are assigned to the fire. Crews from Mineral Wells are returning to the fire area today to continue mop up

 As of 12PM on 08/12/22 this fire was turned over to the local BLM office.  A type 4 IC is on scene and 2 hand crews remain on scene for monitor and patrol status.  All road closures and evacuation levels related to this fire have been lifted.  The Nature Conservancy area remained closed at this time. Contact the local Bureau of Land Management office for questions or information about this

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 13 17:53:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 13 17:53:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. If this activity were to continue, a short-lived
tropical depression could form later today or this evening while the
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By Sunday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen over the
system, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to remain centered over the central CONUS from Sunday morning into Monday morning. Weak upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS during the same period, with modestly enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within the corridor between this trough and the central CONUS ridge (from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest into the central Appalachians). A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the corridor on Sunday, with the lead wave moving through the central Appalachians, and the following wave moving through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to move across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians. This low is expected to be centered over central IL early Sunday morning, with an associated frontal boundary extending westward across MO into central KS, and then back northwestward through the NE Panhandle. Some southward progression of this front is anticipated across MO and portions of the Lower OH Valley, while the western portion of the frontal over the Plains remains largely stationary. ...Central High Plains... Thunderstorm are expected to develop across eastern WY Sunday afternoon, ahead of a convectively enhanced shortwave trough cresting the upper ridge. Moderate westerly flow aloft atop southeasterly low-level will support moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a few more organized storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as these storms move into the well-mixed environment south of the stationary front. A few instances of hail could also occur, particularly along and north of the stationary front, as storms interact with this boundary. ...South TX... A weak tropical disturbance may move inland from parts of the lower TX Coast into deep south TX on Sunday. Most guidance currently shows modest low-level wind fields with this feature, with minimal severe potential anticipated at this time. ...AZ... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across the high terrain/Mogollon Rim, within the moist, Monsoonal air mass over the region. Low to mid-level flow will be very weak, but a strong gust or two is possible as these storms move into the steep low-level lapse rate environment over the desert. ...Upper OH/Central Appalachians... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the middle OH Valley ahead the lead shortwave and attendant surface low. This early morning development should weaken, with additional development anticipated during the afternoon across the central Appalachians. Vertical shear is strong enough to support a few persistent updrafts, but buoyancy will be limited but weak lapse rates, likely keeping the overall severe potential limited. ..Mosier.. 08/13/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail across the central U.S., with some breakdown of the ridge/modest mid-level troughing likely across the Northwest today. Deep-layer flow/forcing beneath and to the periphery of the upper ridge is expected to be too modest to support a significant wildfire-spread threat anywhere across the CONUS. Locally though, a few exceptions may exist. While the sustained surface wind field is expected to remain under 15 mph on a widespread basis, pockets of 15+ mph surface winds may overlap 15-20 percent RH all along the periphery of the ridge, spanning from northern California into the Northern Rockies and the Plains states. Monsoonal moisture meandering northward along the upper ridge axis will aid in thunderstorm development across the central and northern Rockies. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is likely, and a localized wildfire-start threat may accompany strikes away from storm cores into dry fuel beds, with gusty thunderstorm winds potentially exacerbating ongoing fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MT/WESTERN ND...AND ACROSS EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains and Midwest late this afternoon and evening. ...Eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL this afternoon/evening... A midlevel high persists over the central High Plains, with a downstream trough over the Northeast, and an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Around the northeast periphery of the midlevel high, an embedded speed maximum will move southeastward from southeast MN toward southern WI/northeastern IL, in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone and cold front. The front is demarcated by persistent stratus spreading southward across IA, with a warm sector south of the front characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s and surface temperatures warming into the 80s. Some elevated convection is ongoing over southwest WI in a zone of warm advection ahead of the midlevel speed max and weak surface cyclone. Continued warming/destabilization through the afternoon from west-to-east will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front across eastern IA/northwestern IL/southwestern WI. The stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone just east of the surface warm sector, where a few elevated storms will pose a low-end hail threat. Low-level ascent near the surface cyclone and cold front, close to the northeast edge of the surface warm sector, could support isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. There will be a fairly narrow zone of overlapping buoyancy and hodograph length/curvature to support supercells, but confidence is low in storms forming and remaining in this favorable zone. Thus, will maintain 5% wind/hail (MRGL) probabilities. ...MT to western ND this afternoon/evening... Subtle speed maxima will rotate around the north/northwest periphery of the midlevel high over the central High Plains, within the monsoonal moisture plume from NV/UT into MT. Modest low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s now) will tend to mix some with strong afternoon heating, which will result in profiles with weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. Aside from heating over the higher terrain of southwest/south central MT, the sources for storm initiation are nebulous this afternoon. Therefore, there are some questions about storm coverage, though deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Overall, MRGL with 5% wind appears to be a reasonable reflection of the severe threat with high-based storms/small clusters that will spread east-northeastward from the higher terrain toward central/eastern MT later this afternoon into this evening. There will be a low-end threat for surface-based storm development this afternoon along a surface warm front across western ND. If a storm can form along this boundary, the environment will favor some potential for supercells. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 08/13/2022 Read more

 A Burned Area Emergency Response (RAER) team has arived on the Wildcat incident and have begun work to assess the needs of the Wildcat Fire burned

Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to assist local officials on the Big Sky Fire in Gillespie County just after noon on August 2, 2022. The fire is approximately 9 miles north of Fredericksburg. Local authorities have requested the public avoid the area around Eckert Road and Lower Crabapple Road. Approximately 40 residents were initially evacuated. State resources staged in Kerrville, including Texas A&M Forest Service heavy equipment and a strike team of engines, responded along with aviation crews. Aviation during the first operational period, Aug 2,  included 7 fixed wing and 2 helicopters providing aerial assistance. Aviation resources are on standby as needed for continued operations.By 3:30, on Aug 2, crews reported the fire was approximately 200 acres, burning in grass and brush fuels, being pushed by sustained 15 mph winds, with gusts around 25 mph.  Local resources remained on scene overnight, monitoring points of concernOn Aug 4, perimeter is 1459 acres and...

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 12 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 12 17:41:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have changed little in organization during the past several hours.
This system is still likely to become a short-lived tropical
cyclone during the next day or so before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development on Sunday. The low is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi