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Soil moisture in North Texas was short following two weeks of 100-plus degree temperatures and sustained winds. Some counties were under burn bans. Producers were cutting hay but only reporting one-third of their normal production. Pastures continued to decline. Rain in the next few weeks will be necessary for the sorghum to finish strong. Some corn was dying back prematurely due to the lack of moisture. Soybeans looked good, but late-planted fields were struggling. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 28, 2022

Extremely dry conditions dominated Central Texas. Soil moisture levels were very short. An unrelenting streak of record heat and dry conditions continued with more than 30 days of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. Stock tanks were seriously low or dry. Overall rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor. Hay prices were escalating. Producers were selling livestock due to the extreme drought conditions, and body conditions were fair. Crop conditions were poor overall. Crop yield expectations were all over the board but trending lower than previous years. Corn harvest continued, and yields were widely variable. Sorghum was maturing rapidly. Cotton growth and development was slowing, and fields were showing visible drought stress. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 12, 2022 Record hot conditions continued with no rainfall. There were 20 100-plus degree days reported so far. Crop drought stress continued with virtually no soil moisture. Watering restrictions were now in effect. Corn crops were burning up rapidly and otherwise showing widespread insufficient kernel fill. Pastures and rangelands were in poor condition. Stock tanks were becoming drastically low, and local ranchers were purchasing hay bales to supplement pasture growth. There were reports of round bales selling for $150 each, with some reaching $200. Some culling of beef herds was occurring due to the high feed and forage costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 28, 2022 The district experienced record drought and record high temperatures in May. Those dry, hot conditions continued. Recent rainfall events helped pastures and rangelands, and most areas were in fair condition. Soil moisture conditions were adequate in the majority of counties. The corn crop was trying to fill but fields were showing signs of stress. Corn conditions were deteriorating with plants on lighter texture soils showing leaf firing from the extreme heat and dryness. Hay baling operations were wrapping up a second cutting and yields looked light. Stock ponds were drawing down and water restrictions were starting. Sorghum looked decent; cotton looked average. Pastures were in fair condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 14, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 15 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 15 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat, but some hail may also occur. ...Synopsis... A corridor of modest northwesterly flow aloft is expected to be in place from the northern Plains through the Mid-South on Tuesday morning, situated between upper ridging from the southern Plains into the Great Basin and upper troughing from the Northeast into FL. This western ridge/eastern trough upper pattern is forecast to persist throughout the period as a shortwave trough moves through the corridor of northwesterly flow from the Lower MO Valley through the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Surface pattern early Tuesday morning will likely feature a low over southeast KS, with a diffuse stationary boundary extending southeastward from this low to another low near the southern GA/SC border. Boundary over the Southeast is expected to remain largely in place, while a cold front progresses southward through OK and the TX Panhandle. ...Ozark Plateau into the Lower MS Valley... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the beginning of the period over MO, within the warm-air advection to the northeast of the surface low mentioned in the synopsis. This early morning activity should persist into the early afternoon before diminishing in tandem with weakening low to mid-level westerly flow. Addition storm development is anticipated during the afternoon in the vicinity of the stationary front, where low-level convergence will combine with ample low-level moisture and strong daytime heating to foster convective initiation. These storms will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow, but veering wind profiles will still support moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few stronger, more organized storm structures, particularly across northern and central AR. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells is possible, with isolated strong to damaging winds and some hail both possible. Farther south, a more buoyant but less sheared air mass is anticipated, supporting the threat for a few water-loaded downbursts with any stronger, more persistent storms. ..Mosier.. 08/15/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Carolinas. An isolated severe wind/hail threat may also develop across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Central Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will contribute to some destabilization this afternoon across the Piedmont, with thunderstorm development expected to focus along a weak surface front/trough. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor over this area, but the daytime heating will still boost MLCAPE to near 1000 J/kg. Embedded speed maxima rotating around the southwest periphery of a midlevel trough over the Northeast will combine with weak low-level winds (veering with height) to result in sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for organized/supercell storms. A few damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms later this afternoon into this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will along be possible farther west along the wind shift across GA/AL, where vertical shear will be weaker. Primarily multicell storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage in this corridor later this afternoon. ...Northern Plains later this afternoon/evening... A surface cold front has been reinforced by outflow with morning convection across ND, and surface heating will be slowed some by lingering clouds along the boundary into early afternoon. Still, pockets of stronger surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates noted in the 12z BIS sounding will support MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon along the front/outflow. Vertical shear will be relatively weak, but afternoon/evening storms along the boundary will be capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts. ...Central Plains later this afternoon into early tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, an MCV is moving eastward over northeast NE. The MCV is located well north of the surface warm sector, and outflow from the overnight storms reinforced a boundary from northeast CO to near the KS/NE border. Clouds to the cool side of the boundary and stronger surface heating to the south will tend to reinforce the boundary through the afternoon, which should serve as a focus for thunderstorm later this afternoon through late evening. Midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep within the monsoonal moisture plume emanating from the central Rockies, but there will be steep low-level lapse rates in the stronger surface heating/deeper mixing across northern KS. A cluster or two of storms on the cool side of the boundary could have modest organization in association with the belt of 25-30 kt midlevel westerlies atop surface easterly winds, and isolated high-based storms may form this afternoon across northern KS. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may occur with the strongest storms late this afternoon into early tonight. ...Rio Grande Valley of TX this afternoon... A well-defined tropical low is moving slowly west-northwestward and is located just west of Eagle Pass as of 16z. Some supercell structures have been noted this morning within convective banding to the east of the center over South TX, coincident with a belt of 30-40 kt low-midlevel flow and modestly enhanced effective SRH (100-150 m2/s2). The overlap of the somewhat stronger wind profiles and low-level hodograph curvature with northwest edge of the surface temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s will continue to support the potential for isolated supercells and a weak tornado or two through the afternoon. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/15/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are limited today due to the lack of stronger flow aloft. Brief locally gusty winds may develop across portions of the southern Plains near a lee low this afternoon, but gusts should not exceed 15-20 mph. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions will persist beneath the upper ridge, but the absence of strong winds will keep fire weather conditions localized and minimal. ..Lyons.. 08/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western and central CONUS today as multiple mid-level impulses crest the ridge. Overall weak flow aloft and associated forcing around the ridge should limit widespread significant wildfire spread concerns. However, locally dry and breezy surface conditions may occur in terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and perhaps the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Just four of the 13 boat ramps on Lake Travis remained open as the water level fell, due to drought. The lake was slightly above 645 feet above mean sea level. The ramps that were still in use included Mansfield Dam, Bob Wentz at Windy Point, Tournament Point at Pace Bend, and Sandy Creek. The Mansfield Dam boat ramp can stay open until the lake is at 633 feet. The parks manager urged people to pray for rain. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), Aug 15, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Aug 2022 14:40:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low at just about anytime within the next 24 hours. The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or so. A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area of weak steering flow. A slightly faster westward to west- northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system is a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 ...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 113.6W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 113.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h) and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 17.8, -113.6 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

As drought depletes Hammond Lake, one lake access has been restricted to kayaks only. Dust on dirt roads has also been an issue, reducing visibility and being a nuisance for hikers and bikers. US Army Corps of Engineers (Baltimore, Md.), Aug 10, 2022

Lake levels are low in southern Minnesota, causing boaters problems with launching and retrieving boats, per the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. DNR crews are repairing and extending many boat launch ramps so the public can continue to enjoy boating opportunities despite the low water conditions. The Mankato Free Press (Minn.), Aug 5, 2022

Another set of human remains was found at Lake Mead National Recreation Area east of Las Vegas, according to authorities. This is the fourth body recovered since May as drought lowers the water level at Lake Mead, exposing more lake bed, shoreline and plenty of previously submerged objects. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 7, 2022

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee issued a statewide drought advisory on Aug. 9, based on the recommendation of federal, state and local experts that make up the state’s Drought Steering Committee. Residents and businesses are encouraged to conserve water. Governor (Providence, R.I.), Aug 9, 2022