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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTH FL...SOUTHERN AZ...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening from east Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley to north Florida, southern Arizona, and the western Dakotas. ...Lower MS Valley to north FL this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV will move east-southeastward from AR to MS/AL this afternoon, roughly along and just north of an outflow-reinforced front from the AR/LA border across central MS to southern AL. Strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 70s will boost MLCAPE to near 3000 J/kg this afternoon along and south of the front/outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon. The surface boundaries that will focus storm initiation will lie along the southwest fringe of the 20-30 kt midlevel flow, which will support multicell clusters. Precipitation loading with the strong buoyancy, in combination with DCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, will support isolated wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, isolated strong storms will also be possible across north FL, primarily with sea breeze and outflow interactions. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... To the west of a remnant tropical low over northern Mexico, midlevel east-northeast flow will strengthen some through this evening over southern AZ. This will favor convective clusters moving southwestward from the higher terrain to the lower deserts, where strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to moderate buoyancy and weakening convective inhibition. Typical steep low-level lapse rates and substantial precipitation loading will favor hybrid microbursts capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow winds. ...Western Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Some convection is ongoing late this morning over the northern High Plains, in advance of a weak midlevel trough moving over northeast MT. The convection is expected to increase some later this afternoon as it encounters a deeper mixed boundary layer, when there will be the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/17/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX TO THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may become severe this afternoon from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. ...East Texas/Arklatex to Gulf Coast/northern Florida... Storms are ongoing this morning near and north of the front from Arkansas into northern Mississippi/central Alabama, with lift enhanced by modest warm advection from the west at 850 mb. Strong heating near/south of the front will result in a transition to surface-based storms into this afternoon. It appears that the composite front/outflow boundary will continually undercut the developing storms, and it is unclear how quickly new cells will regenerate for propagation. Regardless, at least isolated strong to severe gusts appear likely given afternoon-maximized steep low-level lapse rates and the expected storm aggregation. Small areas of storms may persist this evening, but any wind threat is expected to diminish after sunset. ...Western Dakota and far eastern Montana/northeast Wyoming... A few stronger storms may materialize this afternoon/early evening near a front/pre-frontal trough. Some thunderstorm-related strong/gusty winds could occur, but severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given the relatively modest buoyancy by summertime standards. ...Southern Arizona... A west/northwestward-moving mid-level impulse and heating over the higher terrain will contribute to diurnally maximized thunderstorm development, some of which may propagate to the desert floor aided by a modest strengthening of mid-level easterlies. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of wind-related probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/17/2022 Read more

A Vermont farmer with an organic beef farm in Sudbury noted that his pasture was not growing, which causes him stress because he has 600 to 700 cattle to graze. The yield and quality of hay grown in Vermont is poor, meaning that there will not be as much for cows this winter. Near Exeter, Rhode Island, the soil is powder dry one foot down, according to a hay farmer. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 16, 2022

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced that the Colorado River Basin would enter a Tier 2 shortage, which will require cuts in water to Arizona of 21%, Nevada, 8% and the country of Mexico by 7%. The country’s two largest reservoirs held about a quarter of their capacity and were continuing to drop lower, which could threaten to disrupt drinking water supplies and hydropower production. In June, Colorado River Basin states were told to devise a way to use 2 to 4 million acre-feet less water, otherwise the federal government would decide the cuts for the states. The deadline for delivering the plan was Aug. 15, which came and went without a solution. The Washington Post (D.C.), Aug. 16, 2022

Yet another set of human remains was discovered at Lake Mead near the Swim Beach part of the lake, bringing the tally of remains to five this year. USA Today (McLean, Va.), Aug 16, 2022

The Deep Draw Fire was first reported just after 8pm on Friday, August 12 and is burning in rugged terrain west of the Pryor Mountain area near the Carbon County - Big Horn County line. While there are a few ranches and cabins in the vicinity of the fire, no structures are immediately threatened. The forward rate of spread has been stopped. The fire received precipitation overnight which helped. Crews are working to complete and reinforce containment lines. Resources from Carbon County, the Montana Department of Natural Resources (MT-DNRC), BLM and the BIA are on

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 16 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 16 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ivette, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly wind damage appear possible Wednesday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper low over the Northeast and its attendant trough extending across much of the eastern half of the CONUS will persist on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop southward across the southern Plains and much of the Deep South. The cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, mainly posing a threat for damaging gusts. West/northwesterly deep-layer flow will remain modest on the southern periphery of the upper trough, though 20-35 kt of flow above 750 mb will support sufficient effective shear magnitudes for some storm organization. Weaker low-level winds and PW values near 2 inches amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support water loaded downdrafts capable of producing strong/isolated severe gusts. The overall severe threat should diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating and increasing boundary-layering inhibition. ..Leitman.. 08/16/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Northern Sierra and southern Cascades Dry Thunder... Confidence in thunderstorm development along the higher terrain has decreased further this morning as much of the monsoon moisture plume remains farther south. With only weak ascent moving inland and scant buoyancy available, the risk for dry lightning appears very low. A lightning flash or two may still be possible with weak convection anchored to the terrain, but coverage will be too low to maintain probabilities for dry thunder. As such, the IsoDryT area has been removed. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail across the western and central CONUS today, with weak forcing/surface wind fields limiting significant wildfire-spread concerns across most of the CONUS. The primary exception would be portions of the Pacific Northwest, where richer monsoonal moisture should begin to impinge on the Pacific Northwest. By late afternoon/early evening, a thunderstorm or two could develop across the southern Cascades. Despite the very low probability of thunderstorm development, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained for the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook given the presence of very dry fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening for parts of the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, southern High Plains, and northern Minnesota vicinity. ...Ozarks/lower MS Valley/southern Plains through this evening... A diffuse MCV over northern MO will move southeastward today, within a band of 30-40 kt midlevel flow (per regional VWPs). Elevated convection has persisted from overnight into this morning in a zone of warm advection over southern MO, and clouds/differential heating will reinforce a baroclinic zone across southern/western AR into southwestern MO. This baroclinic zone will serve to focus additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the MO/AR/OK border intersection, and storms will subsequently move southeastward through the evening. There will be a narrow corridor of overlap of moderate buoyancy and somewhat stronger vertical shear along the surface boundary where some low-end supercell potential will exist (at the northeast edge of the stronger surface heating and deeper mixing). Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be possible with any supercells that form. Otherwise, a few cells/clusters may form along the slow-moving front farther southeast toward central MS, where MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support the potential for isolated strong/damaging downbursts. Buoyancy will be weaker in the warm sector farther west along the cold front in OK/eastern TX Panhandle and storm coverage is in question. If storms do form, deep inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (> 1500 J/kg) will support the threat for isolated microbursts. ...Southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity this afternoon/evening... Low-level flow is expected to become weak upslope in a post-frontal environment from southeast CO into northeast NM by later this afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and surface heating will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon along and just east of the higher terrain, and convection will spread east-southeastward onto the High Plains. Steepening low-level lapse rates and clustering/upscale growth may support isolated strong outflow gusts. ...Northern MN and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A convectively-enhanced shortwave trough near the MN/ON/MB border intersection will move slowly east-southeastward near the international border through the afternoon. An associated wind shift/weak cold front extends west-southwestward from northwest MN into eastern ND. Ascent along the wind shift, in combination with pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest vertical shear will support isolated marginally severe hail and strong/damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/16/2022 Read more

Some honey bee hives in southern and coastal Maine were showing signs of food stress with yellow jackets and hornets robbing honey bee hives. Plants are drought-stressed and were not producing as much nectar or pollen as usual, leaving less for bees to collect and store. The president of the Maine State Beekeepers Association harvested 300 pounds of honey last summer, but only 100 pounds so far this summer and does not expect to get much more, due to the drought. Plants were also blooming weeks earlier than usual. Bangor Daily News (Maine), Aug 16, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Aug 2022 14:49:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Aug 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 210 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the cyclone. If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from TAFB. Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days. Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days. Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours. The global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...IVETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 114.6W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivette was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Ivette is likely to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 the center of Ivette was located near 17.1, -114.6 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.