Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into northwest North Dakota on late Saturday afternoon through the evening. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough initially over southern British Columbia and WA will move northeast through the southern Canadian Rockies on Saturday. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central High Plains with a ridge extending northward into the southern Prairie Provinces. A large-scale mid-level trough will encompass much of the East Coast. In the low levels, a weak area of low pressure over the middle MS Valley will aid in focusing isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over parts of the southwest Great Lakes. Elevated general thunderstorms are expected with this activity. A residual frontal zone will extend westward into the central Great Plains and arc northward into the northern Great Plains. Weak low-level warm-air advection is forecast in the vicinity of the boundary near the MT/ND/Saskatchewan border. Ample mid- to high-level flow will result in strong deep-layer shear supporting organized storm structures. The overall weak forcing for ascent beneath the mid-level ridge will likely limit storm coverage, but a small storm cluster could yield a hail/wind risk. Farther west, isolated diurnally driven storms are probable over southern MT during the late afternoon. Some of this activity may gradually shift east into east-central MT during the evening. A steep lapse rate environment will conditionally yield a risk for severe gusts with the stronger cores. ..Smith.. 08/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast remains valid with no substantial changes. See below for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persevere across the central U.S. while a mid-level trough meanders along the Pacific Northwest coastline today. Modest mid-level winds overspreading the Cascades will support leeside downslope flow and accompanying Elevated dry/windy surface conditions into the Harney Basin and surrounding areas during the afternoon. Deep-layer ascent will aid in the lifting of a monsoonal airmass across the northern Rockies by afternoon peak heating, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Several of the thunderstorms are expected to be wet, and traversing fuel beds that are highly receptive to fire spread on a spotty basis, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Nonetheless, a localized threat for fire starts exists given the number of total lightning strikes that may occur away from precipitation cores, along with the potential for gusty, erratic winds. Despite the presence of upper ridging, surface low development is likely in the northern Plains. Deterministic guidance substantially disagrees regarding how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. However, there is some signal for at least locally Elevated surface conditions across parts of the northern Plains, perhaps extending east to the Iowa/Minnesota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and large hail are possible over parts of the northern Rockies and vicinity. ...Northern Rockies through late evening... Embedded speed maxima will move north-northeastward from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies (as evidenced by the ongoing isolated storms), between a closed low off the WA/OR coasts, and west of midlevel high over the central CONUS. Steep lapse rates persist over the Great Basin/northern Rockies, around the western periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range. Modified versions of the 12z soundings from BOI/OTX suggest the potential for moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg) with modestly deep inverted-v profiles, while effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will be sufficient for some supercell structures. Scattered cells/clusters are expected this afternoon over the higher terrain with surface heating, and in the zone of weak ascent associated with the embedded speed maxima. Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats with these storms across northern ID and vicinity this afternoon, while high-based convection with strong outflow potential will spread east into western MT this evening. ...Southeast states this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough is digging southeastward over the southern Appalachians, as an associated surface cold front likewise progresses southward across the Carolinas/GA/AL. Convection has been ongoing this morning from eastern NC to central SC, and the associated clouds/rain will inhibit additional surface heating across coastal NC. Some cloud breaks from SC across GA/AL will allow destabilization through the afternoon, but poor lapse rates will tend to limit buoyancy and the potential for intense downdrafts. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 08/12/2022 Read more

Drought expanded in Nebraska, and the southwest part of the state saw the return of exceptional drought for the first time since 2013. The worsening conditions have hurt crops as drought and heat have reduced Nebraska's corn and soybean yields, per DTN, who estimates the average yield for corn to be 158 bushels per acre and 52.5 bpa for soybeans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's five-year average for corn is nearly 186 bpa and for soybeans is 59 bpa. Lincoln Journal Star (Neb.), Aug 11, 2022

The Vantage Highway fire started on August 1, 2022 at 1205 PM PDT. The fire was originally reported five miles west of Vantage. This incident started during "Red Flag" weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning bringing warm temperatures, very low humidity, and strong winds combined to produce extreme fire behavior. Additional resources were required to suppress the fire as it continued to grow rapidly due to the passage of a cold front with gusty winds. A Washington State Department of Natural Resources Type 3 Incident Management Team took command of the fire on August 4 and soon after transitioned to a Type 2 Incident Management Team equipped with more resources to battle the expanding incident. On August 5 at 6AM Jeff Dimke's NW Team 12 (Type 2 Team) assumed command of the

The Cow Canyon Fire was first reported on August 3rd at 2:45 p.m. approximately 1 mile NE of Wenas, WA. The fire is burning in grass, brush, and timber. Numerous ground and aviation resources responded in the initial attack phase. The fire exhibited a high rate of spread with moderate to high fire behavior due to a red flag warning and passage of a cold front bringing gusty, erratic winds. A Washington Department of Natural Resources Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire on August 4th and transitioned to a Type 2 Incident Management Team (PNW 12, Dimke) due to the rapid spread and heightened complexity of the fire. Several firefighters and aviation assets from multiple agencies and private entities worked together to aid in the full suppression effort. At the height of the incident, there were 460 personnel assigned to the fire including numerous handcrews, engines, dozers, water tenders, and aircraft. Two primary residences, one cabin, and eleven out...

The Committee Fire was reported at 12:20 p.m. Friday, July 15. It was marked fully contained on August

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 11 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 11 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico
through the weekend. The disturbance should move into an environment
that is less conducive for development by Sunday, and further
development will be unlikely at that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms capable of a few localized severe gusts are possible on Friday over parts of the northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist over the eastern CONUS on Friday, while an upper ridge remains anchored over the central Rockies and Great Plains. An upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move slowly northward and approach Vancouver Island by late Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will push southward across the Carolinas and Southeast. A secondary front will move through portions of the OH/TN Valleys, though the northern portion of this boundary may push northward as a warm front across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. ...Northern Rockies... Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating, and sufficient low-level moisture will support weak to moderate buoyancy by Friday afternoon from parts of northern ID into western MT. The primary limiting factor will be large-scale forcing for ascent remaining displaced to the west of the region near the Pacific coast. Nonetheless, orographic lift and heating will probably result in isolated storms developing during the afternoon. Ample deep-layer shear (40 kt effective) coupled with steep lapse rates will enhance storm organization and the risk for isolated severe gusts during the late afternoon through th evening. ...GA/SC... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Friday near the front across portions of GA into SC, and perhaps coastal areas of NC. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow may support sufficient deep-layer shear for some weakly organized storms, though weak midlevel lapse rates and low-level flow are generally expected to limit organized severe-wind potential. Isolated strong gusts capable of tree damage will be possible, especially where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs prior to storm arrival. ..Smith.. 08/11/2022 Read more

Number of Fires: 7Total Acres Burned: 703Containment: 70%Homes or Structures Lost: 0Incidents - 1      On August 9th, 2022 at approximately 12:00pm air detection plains began spotting multiple smoke columns building just south of Highway 287 between the towns Corrigan and Groveton, Texas. Texas A&M Forest Service responded and encountered several of the fires showing moderate to high fire behavior that were highly resistant to containment by firefighters. The fires were moving quickly through the canopies of mixed aged pine plantations and logging slash and burning intensely.  Texas A&M Forest Service began working in unified command with local fire departments, United States Forest Service, and private timber companies on the ground to establish control lines around fires. Ground resources worked extensively with aircraft resources including Large Air Tankers (LATS), Very Large Air Tankers (VLATS), Fire Boss Single Engine Air Tankers, and Type 1 Helicopters. Crews were able...

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON...AND WESTERN IDAHO.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the inland Pacific Northwest. ...WA/OR/ID... Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s are present today over much of the Pacific Northwest region, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 500-1500 J/kg. The persistent upper low off the coast will continue to track northward today, with moderately strong southerly deep-layer flow across the region. This will lead to a conditionally favorable environment for severe/supercell thunderstorms. Most CAM solutions suggest at least isolated cells forming this afternoon and early evening over eastern WA/OR and western ID. Any persistent storm in this area will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The threat should begin to diminish after 03z. ..Hart.. 08/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Morning surface observations show dry air in place across parts of northeast CA and southern OR as well as across the central High Plains. This will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon as winds increase to near 15 mph in the lee of the Cascades and in the vicinity of a surface trough over parts of NE/SD. Confidence in such winds has increased based on recent observations and morning ensemble guidance, warranting an introduction of risk areas. Fuels across both regions are receptive to fire spread based on latest ERC estimates and will support at least regional fire weather concerns. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across the northern Rockies, but morning soundings suggest sufficient moisture is in place to favor thunderstorms with wetting precipitation. ..Moore.. 08/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to be relatively low today as the mid-level ridge shifts east and strengthens over the Rockies. To the west, an upper low is forecast to weaken as it moves slowly along the WA/OR Coast. Lingering mid-level flow and moisture will support locally elevated fire weather concerns, along with the potential for isolated thunderstorms. ...Northwest... Mid-level flow east of the upper low, will support occasional gusty surface winds in the lee of the Sierra and Cascades this afternoon. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected within dry fuels. The highest confidence in sustained elevated conditions is expected across southern OR where RH values may fall as low as 15-20%. Farther north, mid-level moisture remains in place near the upper low increasing surface RH values and casting greater uncertainty on the localized fire weather risk. However, a few hours of gusty winds near 15 mph and lower RH may support some risk for locally elevated fire weather in the lee of the Cascades where downslope winds are expected. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for lightning in dry fuels across portions of eastern WA and ID as moisture is slowly shifted to the east. Please see the latest convective outlook for information on the severe-weather risk. ...Northern High Plains... Weak low-level winds are expected beneath anemic flow aloft as the mid-level ridge strengthens across much of the central US. While not expected to exceed more than 15 or 20 mph, a few gusts enhanced by a lee cyclone across the western Dakotas will develop within a dry and warm airmass with temperatures near 100F. With afternoon RH values of 20-25% and only marginally conducive winds forecast, the fire weather threat is expected to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

At 4:16pm on August 7th, The Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to the Burns Creek Fire in Washington County. The fire began in the area of the 6600 block of FM 1948, and is moving north in the direction of Lake Sommerville. TAMFS is in unified command with local resources.All Evacuations have been lifted and residents are allowed back to their homes. Evacuations have been ordered on Schulenburg Lane, and the direct vicinity of the fire. Multiple aviation assets including 10 fixed-wing aircraft, and 2 helicopters have been utilized. Other assets ordered include 3 bulldozers, 3 agency fire engines, and a strike team of fire engines from Texas Interstate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS). Air assets are utilizing Lake Sommerville to dip water buckets; all boaters must avoid the area to allow crews to safely load and return. Do not fly drones at or near wildfires, as they are a hazard to aviation and hinder firefighting

FOREST SERVICE BAER PROGRAM OVERVIEWThe Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for stabilization work that involves time-critical activities to be completed before the first damaging event to meet program objectives:BAER Objectives:-   Determine whether imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands exist and take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage the unacceptable risks.-   If emergency conditions are identified, mitigate significant threats to health, safety, human life, property and critical cultural and natural resources.-   Prescribe emergency response actions to stabilize and prevent...

Sunday - Aug 7, 6 PM Update: Air attack is underway to suppress fire activity while light conditions allow.. Incident resources working on west flank. Landowners with graders and VFD working on Right flank.8 PM Update: Activity has diminished other than some heavy areas on the west, Most VFD have been released and headed back.  Other firefighting resources remain to continue suppression and containment operations.10 PM Update:  Per ICT,  90% contained fire is lined turned over to locals for the night for monitoring and suppression as needed. Monday - Aug 8, 3 PM -  95% contained.  IC  reports locals have been monitoring the fire.5 PM Update -  Personnel and engines patrolled fire and mopped up any heat found near the fireline.Tuesday - Aug  9, 9 PM - 100% contained.  Containment lines are holding and no issues reported. Some interior smoldering present, but should not pose a threat.Wednesday - Aug 10 - Mop up and patrol.  More information will be provided as...

Much of the corn west of Sioux Falls dried up. One farmer was hoping to get 10 to 20 bushels in some areas, and expected that overall that he'd get from zero to more than 100 bushels in some places. Cattle producers kept the livestock off of pastures until near the end of June and fed them hay and silage to allow pasture grass to grow. Alfalfa has not grown well and only yielded 4 bales on a second cutting of 35 acres, when he usually gets more than 100 bales. KELOLAND (Sioux Falls, S.D.), Aug. 10, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 10 17:48:02 UTC 2022.