Aggregator

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.3, -105.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061438 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

A fire started in southern Palo Pinto county on Tuesday July 2nd and local resources quickly began suppression. Texas A&M Forest Service was requested for assistance due to the rapid growth and the heavy fuels the fire was burning in. Dozers, engines, and a crew module responded and began constructing line. With the dry juniper fuels present in the area, resources are spending a significant amount of effort identifying and containing spot fires. Engines from Palo Pinto, Parker, and Hood counties all have been supporting the line construction by putting out heats along the lines that could threaten the constructed dozer lines. Once the dozer lines have been completed and conditions have moderated some, resources will be conducting some burn operations into this evening to remove some of the need for extensive mop up. This purposeful burning will speed up the consumption of fuels left inside the dozer line to better secure this fire.  High temperatures and low humidity will continue...

7/29 Pine Peak Fire Update:  Fire continues to smolder in the heavy fuels.  Smoke may be visible from Yucca and Wikieup. Size – Estimated at 1631 ac 7/26 at 1900 Containment – 77% Total Personnel – 6 Current Fire Behavior – Due to the recent Thunderstorm activity and precipitation over the fire there has been no perimeter growth. Heavy downed logs due continue to smolder on the interior of the pine stringers. Strategy - Due to the extremely remote and rugged terrain, this fire is in a confine /contain strategy. BLM Firefighters continue to monitor and recon the fire. Weather Concerns – Forecast call for Scattered Thunderstorms though the

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 5 18:04:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the central Plains early Saturday morning, covering much of the Southwest, central/southern Plains, and MS Valley. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place throughout the day, with some modest dampening throughout its far northern periphery as a shortwave trough moves from Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. This shortwave trough will follow in the wake of another shortwave moving across the Hudson Bay/Ontario. This train of shortwave troughs will help maintain broad upper troughing over the Canadian Prairie Provinces and far northern High Plains/northern Plains, with modestly enhanced flow aloft extending through the base of this troughing from WY through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. Surface pattern is expected to feature a cold front stretching from the MN arrowhead vicinity southwestward through central NE early Saturday morning. This front is forecast to progress gradually southward/southeastward during the day, ending the period extending from central WI southwestward into western KS. Interaction between this front and the warm and moist air mass across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley will support thunderstorm development throughout the day. ...Central Plains...Upper Midwest... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning to the north of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, supported by warm-air advection across the frontal zone. Steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still be in place amid modest vertical shear, resulting in the potential for few updrafts capable of hail and/or a damaging downburst. This early morning activity should diminish as it moves northeastward, with additional thunderstorm development anticipated during the afternoon, both along the front and in its wake. Thunderstorm initiation along the front appears most probable from the north-central WI southwestward into north-central NE, where daytime heating will push temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Strong buoyancy will support intense updrafts, but the highest storm coverage may be displaced south of the stronger deep-layer vertical shear and high LCLs. These conditions suggests a mostly outflow-dominant storm mode, with a few damaging wind gusts are possible. Only exception is across WI and southeast MN, where vertical shear is expected to be strong enough for a few supercells. Here, isolated hail is possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 08/05/2022 Read more

MD 1654 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST WV...NORTHEAST TN...NORTHWEST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Areas affected...southwest and western VA...southeast WV...northeast TN...northwest NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051711Z - 051915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are possible and these gusts will likely be capable of localized pockets of wind damage. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms developing over the past hour near the ridge tops of the Appalachians. Surface conditions show temperatures warming through the upper 80s in the low elevations with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Continued heating will further steepen low-level lapse rates as temperatures warm into the 90s. NAM forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present over southwest and western VA and surrounding states. This buoyancy magnitude appears to be adequately depicted based on midday surface observations compared to the RAP-based SPC Objective Analysis (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). With PW 1.75 to 2 inches, ample water-loading potential is evident. The steepening of 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong gust potential. A weak tropospheric wind profile will favor slow-moving, pulse-like storms. Isolated to widely scattered strong gusts 45-55 mph are probable with the stronger cores (locally up to around 60 mph) with pockets of wind damage the likely result. ..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938205 37788098 39397883 39407824 39127786 38637788 37007916 35788167 35838209 36188227 36938205 Read more

MD 1654 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST WV...NORTHEAST TN...NORTHWEST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Areas affected...southwest and western VA...southeast WV...northeast TN...northwest NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051711Z - 051915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are possible and these gusts will likely be capable of localized pockets of wind damage. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms developing over the past hour near the ridge tops of the Appalachians. Surface conditions show temperatures warming through the upper 80s in the low elevations with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Continued heating will further steepen low-level lapse rates as temperatures warm into the 90s. NAM forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present over southwest and western VA and surrounding states. This buoyancy magnitude appears to be adequately depicted based on midday surface observations compared to the RAP-based SPC Objective Analysis (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). With PW 1.75 to 2 inches, ample water-loading potential is evident. The steepening of 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong gust potential. A weak tropospheric wind profile will favor slow-moving, pulse-like storms. Isolated to widely scattered strong gusts 45-55 mph are probable with the stronger cores (locally up to around 60 mph) with pockets of wind damage the likely result. ..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938205 37788098 39397883 39407824 39127786 38637788 37007916 35788167 35838209 36188227 36938205 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are expected today across parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota. Other more isolated thunderstorm wind gusts will occur from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending across the western Dakotas. This boundary will move eastward today and provide the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. Strong heating, dewpoints near 70F, and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg. CAM solutions suggest storms will form by late afternoon and early evening from central SD into northwest MN. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized/supercell storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail through the evening. ...Mid Atlantic to Central Appalachians... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from east TN into much of VA, where dewpoints in the 70s will result in afternoon MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates are weak, and forecast soundings show weak winds aloft through column. Nevertheless, pulse and occasional multicell storm clusters will pose a risk of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours this afternoon. ..Hart/Smith.. 08/05/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area is introduced to portions of northern CA into southern OR. Latest MRMS rainfall estimates suggest ongoing convection is a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms with pockets of wetting rainfall. Thunderstorm chances will persist into the afternoon as a weak mid-level disturbance moves into the northern Great Basin. Forecast soundings show inverted-V soundings with cloud bases near 2.5-3 km and PWAT values near 0.8 to 1.0 inch. These thermodynamic conditions are supportive of a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over a region with receptive fuels and a history of recent fire starts. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast concerns. ..Moore.. 08/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this morning over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move eastward across southern Canada today. An associated surface low over Manitoba will deepen with a trailing surface trough/cold front draped southward into the northern Plains. While the enhanced surface pressure gradient across the region will lead to windy pre-frontal and post-frontal conditions across portions of the northern Plains, the overlap of strong winds with critical RH values appears unlikely, limiting fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Oak Fire started on July 22, 2022. The fire is being managed under unified command between the CAL FIRE Madera-Mariposa-Merced Unit, the Sierra National Forest, and the Mariposa County Sheriff's Department. CAL FIRE Incident Management Team 5 is managing the

On August 4th, at approximately 1:30 PM, Texas A&M Forest Service was called to assist with a wildfire located 30 miles south of Highway 190 between Livingston and Woodville. The fire was initially reported to be 100 acres and quickly grew to 300 acres.Crews arrived on scene and observed high fire behavior in a mixture of pine plantation and hardwood fuels. Three homes in the area are currently threatened.Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with local fire departments to protect homes, and has ordered multiple aviation resources to assist with the

262
ABPZ20 KNHC 051128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early
next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental
conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward toward and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Extreme heat and drought have led to very low flows in parts of the Frio, Pedernales, Guadalupe, and Nueces rivers. The San Marcos and Comal rivers were still flowing, but were significantly lower than they ought to be. Jacob’s Well stopped flowing. Many of Texas’ popular rivers for tubing were lower and slower than usual. The Frio River fell to 0 cubic feet per second on June 22, where it has remained, although rain revived it temporarily. The Nueces flows at 10 cfs, and the Guadalupe flows at 6 cfs. The San Marcos and Comal rivers were flowing at about 93 and 50 cfs, respectively, which is considerably below historical flows. Texas Highways (Austin), July 29, 2022

Landscaping in North Texas has taken a beating, after two harsh winters and the drought. A horticulturalist and well-known gardening expert has noticed that many commercial and home landscapes were not being watered and cared for well amid this summer’s intense heat and drought. "Millions of dollars have been lost by commercial landscapes and home landscapes that have not been tended," stated the horticulturalist. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), Aug 2, 2022

The mayor of Plano urged residents to limit their water use through September 15. The Dallas Morning News (Texas), Aug 4, 2022

Residents of Grand Prairie are asked to conserve water and were warned that stricter water restrictions were on the way without substantial rain. The Dallas Morning News (Texas), Aug 4, 2022

The North Texas Municipal Water District continues to ask for reduced outdoor water use even though the maintenance work is done at the Wylie Treatment Plant Complex. The NTMWD hit a system record on July 12 when the district pumped 628 million gallons of water in 24 hours exceeding the maximum of 603 million gallons pumped in 2011. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), July 20, 2022 The North Texas Municipal Water District asked on July 16 that all municipalities that receive their water would immediately reduce water use, particularly outdoor water use, while maintenance was performed on a treatment plant to improve its treatment capacity. The NTMWD provides water to most of Collin County, Rockwall County and Kaufman County, parts of North Dallas County, a significant portion of Hunt County and parts of Denton, Grayson, Rains, Hopkins and Van Zandt counties. The City of Plano issued a notice to residents, requesting water conservation at least through Wednesday, July 20. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), July 17, 2022

The Halfway Hill Fire was detected on July 8, 2022, at about 2:00 PM. Although fire crews quickly responded, the fire grew significantly in the first few hours, prompting the evacuation of homes and recreation areas. Evacuations were lifted on the evening of July 13, once a portion of the fire perimeter adjacent to the subdivision was contained.  The Fishlake NF has an area and road closure in effect.  Great Basin Incident Management Team 4 assumed command on July 10, operating from a camp at the Millard County Fairgrounds.

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 4 17:41:01 UTC 2022.