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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments required based on latest hi-res convective guidance. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 08/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough positioned over the northern Plains will shift east into the Great Lakes region throughout the day. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the northern Rockies, and a closed upper-level low will approach the northern California/southern Oregon coast. At the surface, a cold front will continue a slow progression across the northern/central High Plains. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms: Central/Southern Oregon/far Northern California/far Northwest Nevada... The area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been expanded slightly toward the northwest, based on 00z CAM guidance. Coverage of this activity should remain isolated, supported by forecast PWAT values still remaining near or below 0.75-0.8 inches, and fuels across the region remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Wind/RH: Northern Oregon/Southern Washington... Localized elevated conditions may develop during the afternoon, as a hot/dry airmass will be present over the region. Locally enhanced offshore flow will likely occur in terrain-favored regions of the Cascades. Given the isolated nature of the threat, however, no highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace, estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur, intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48 hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the latest HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2022 14:37:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2022 15:22:32 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071437 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 11 16(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071437 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.9W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 the center of Nine-E was located near 16.8, -109.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Rhode Island apples were smaller than usual as drought stressed the trees, some of which drooped. Some of the leaves turned yellow. The orchard owner spent his time watering the trees for fear that they might die without enough water. The Providence Journal (Rhode Island), Aug. 5, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 6 17:59:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 6 17:59:01 UTC 2022.

 On August 3, 2022 a wildfire started just north of Tolar, Texas. The fire grew quickly and established itself in thick oak and juniper brush. Local volunteer fire departments responded and began suppressing the fire. Departments from across Hood county responded to Tolar fire department's request for assistance to help attack this fire. Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to bring aerial resources and heavy equipment to assist local departments and are now working in Unified command with Hood County Fire Marshal's office. High temperatures and high winds will continue to drive fires and cry already critically dry fuels. With the large number of aerial resources on scene and drones in the air will quickly cause all air operations to cease. Aircraft pilots can not easily see drones in the air and impact with these small objects can cause severe

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Arizona Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon across parts of Arizona, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected across the higher terrain, with east-northeasterly midlevel flow favoring the potential for outflow-driven clusters to move into the lower desert regions by evening, with an attendant risk of isolated severe wind gusts. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected along the CO Front Range within a post frontal regime, with more isolated development possible across adjacent portions of the central High Plains. Veering wind profiles north of the front will support effective shear of 20-30 kt within a moderately unstable environment, and a couple of semi-organized storms will be possible, though a tendency for storm mergers is expected to limit the severe threat to some extent. ...Midwest into parts of the Great Lakes... Substantial convection is expected across parts of the Midwest during the D1/Saturday period into early Sunday, which casts considerable uncertainty regarding the severe potential later in the day. There is some potential for afternoon/evening redevelopment along any remnant outflow boundaries, and also along a cold front moving across parts of IA/MN. Stronger deep-layer shear is expected to remain north/west of the greater surface-based instability, but a few stronger cells/clusters will be possible across some portion of this area, and severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on shorter-term observational and guidance trends. ...Northern New England... Northern New England will be along the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow on Sunday. While the environment is expected to remain relatively moist, very weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit buoyancy and thunderstorm coverage for much of the day. There is some chance for isolated storms to develop across the higher terrain (if sufficient heating can occur), and/or spread south of the international border by early evening. Should this occur, some locally damaging wind threat may result, though confidence remains too low for wind probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 08/06/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The Chalk Mountain Fire started on July 18, 2022 at approximately 2:30 p.m. at the 8200 block of U Hwy 67 and CR 1004 Glen Rose, Texas in Somervell County. The Southern Area Type-1 Blue Team assumed command of the fire on July 20, 2022 and is working with multiple resources, including the Texas A&M Forest Service and numerous local fire departments, to contain the

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening from the upper Mississippi Valley into the central High Plains. ...IA/MN/WI... Morning satellite imagery shows a canopy of cloud cover associated with a decaying MCS over MN/WI. The southern edge of clouds extends from northwest IA into far southern MN and southwest WI. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be present today to the south of this axis, with MLCAPE values expected to exceed 3000 J/kg with 20-30 knots of deep-layer mean flow. Most CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorms developing in this area by late afternoon, with a few supercell and organized multicell structures possible. Mid-level temperatures are quite warm and lapse rates are weak, suggesting that the hail risk will be limited. However, high PW values and steep low-level lapse rates will promote damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk area to parts of the region. ...High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening over the plains of eastern CO/WY and drift eastward. Forecast soundings show that winds aloft are rather strong over WY, but thermodynamics will be somewhat marginal. Isolated supercells will be possible with a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts, but the forecast coverage of intense storms appears to be in line with a MRGL category at this time. This will be re-evaluated at 20z. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/06/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Morning water-vapor imagery reveals mid-level confluence zone along the CA/OR border that will provide weak ascent today. The 12 UTC MFR sounding sampled favorable buoyancy atop a somewhat dry boundary layer that should support a wet/dry mix of thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Willamette Valley... Dry conditions are expected this afternoon through the Willamette Valley with RH values falling as low as 20%. Terrain-augmented winds may reach near 15 mph and support areas of elevated conditions. While noted, this potential remains too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 08/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough will move across portions of the northern CONUS, from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will remain quasi-stationary over the central CONUS with weak mid- to upper-level flow prevailing in most areas. At the surface, a cold front will enter portions of the northern/central High Plains. Ahead of this front, breezy southwesterly surface winds near 20 mph should develop during the afternoon across most of western Kansas and vicinity. However, RH values should generally remain above critical/elevated thresholds amid fuels that appear generally non-receptive to large-fire spread. ...Southern Oregon... An area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the region. A narrow zone of convection should develop during the late afternoon hours amid dry/receptive fuels and PWAT values remaining below 0.75 inches. The highlighted area has been confined to portions of the region that received little appreciable rainfall yesterday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2022 14:42:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2022 15:22:33 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt tropical depression. The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass, likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a weakening trend through the middle of next week. The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 17(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 1(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 46(55) 3(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 105.7W ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 105.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days, keeping the system well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart