Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a small low pressure
system is located about 100 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
This disturbance remains disorganized and the thunderstorm activity
is limited at this time. However, environmental conditions could
still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days
while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ONL TO 20 SW YKN TO 30 S YKN TO 10 E OFK. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-015-089-103-107-139-149-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD HOLT KEYA PAHA KNOX PIERCE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 566 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 100030Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over southern South Dakota will track southeastward across the watch area this evening. Damaging winds and hail are possible in the more organized cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east southeast of Oneill NE to 35 miles west northwest of Yankton SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564...WW 565... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MHE TO 20 NW YKN TO 20 S YKN TO 10 E OFK. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-015-089-103-107-139-149-100340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD HOLT KEYA PAHA KNOX PIERCE ROCK SDC009-100340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BON HOMME THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more