Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041714Z - 041915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging winds will increase in coverage this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing early this afternoon across eastern WV and northwest VA, with some increasing cumulus also noted across southern VA. Strong diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg across the region this afternoon, as MLCINH erodes and storm coverage continues to increase with time. Deep-layer shear is generally expected to remain weak, but the thermodynamic environment will support a threat of isolated and potentially damaging downburst winds in association with the strongest storms. Midlevel cloudiness associated with an approaching MCV may result in a relative minimum in storm coverage across parts of western VA, but some potential exists for a loosely organized storm cluster to develop and spread across northern VA into adjacent portions of MD, as outflows consolidate with time. Due to the generally disorganized nature of the threat, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38468071 39207948 39657882 39687754 39667714 38847666 38137656 37767666 37707725 37777777 37937799 38157825 38397869 38507916 38277993 38188027 38098056 38068093 38248100 38468071 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible Friday afternoon across parts of the northern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and Maryland. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to prevail across the southern half of the CONUS on Friday, with the center of the ridge drifting northeastward into the central Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces into Ontario. The gradient between the southern CONUS upper ridging and this shortwave trough will act to enhanced the westerly flow aloft from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper MS Valley. A surface low will precede the Canadian shortwave, beginning the period over central Manitoba before moving northeastward into northern Ontario and the Hudson Bay. An attendant cold front is expected to sweep southeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, leading to thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... Strong diurnal heating is anticipated ahead of the front across the northern Plains on Friday, with temperatures reaching the upper 90s and low 100s. Despite deep boundary-layer mixing associated with this heating, dewpoints are expected to remain in the 60s, which will support moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal air mass. Late afternoon thunderstorm initiation is anticipated along the front, with robust updrafts developing quickly. Some of the enhanced mid-level flow discussed in the synopsis will extend over the region, supporting around 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer vertical shear, which is enough for occasional supercell storm structures. However, the linear character of the forcing for ascent along the front coupled with high storm coverage suggests a discrete, supercellular mode would be difficult to maintain. These factors, coupled with the high-based character of the storms, suggest a mainly multicellular/outflow-dominant mode, with damaging wind gusts as the main severe threat. There is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support a hail threat as well, particularly early in the storm life cycle. ...Mid-Atlantic... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected over much of the Mid-Atlantic, fostered by diurnal heating, ample low-level moisture, and modest ascent. The ascent over the region will be a combination of low-level confluence and weak large-scale lift attendant to any convectively inducted vorticity maxima from overnight activity farther west. All of these factors maximize over northern VA and vicinity, where the greatest probability for a few damaging wind gusts exists. ..Mosier.. 08/04/2022 Read more

MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OH...western PA...northern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041658Z - 041900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and intensity early this afternoon, along and ahead of a weak surface boundary draped from northern OH into northwest PA. With deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, convection is expected to remain relatively disorganized. However, as MLCAPE increases into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and low-level lapse rates steepen with time, the strongest cells/clusters may be capable of producing isolated damaging wind as they spread northeastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40348335 40848174 41368018 41767927 41147927 40028049 39708171 39658264 39688299 39848355 40138366 40348335 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments for the latest hi-res guidance. Critical fire weather conditions are expected with a strong frontal passage across portions of northern MT. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also expected within dry fuels across southern MT. Otherwise, please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Rockies today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with this feature will overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho/Montana. In response at the surface, low pressure will deepen over Alberta and Saskatchewan. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a swath of 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected across parts of north-central MT. These strong winds, coupled with a hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer (10-15 percent minimum RH) will lead to critical fire-weather conditions. In addition, mixed wet-dry thunderstorms should spread eastward across the northern Rockies, accompanied by locally strong outflow winds. Given the expected high cloud bases and relatively fast storm motions (over 30 mph), limited rainfall accumulation is expected, supporting isolated dry thunderstorm potential. ...Pacific Northwest... Deep boundary-layer mixing in the presence of strong westerly flow aloft combined with downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades will result in 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH. Given receptive fuels from WA into OR, elevated to locally critical conditions can be expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly in the form of damaging winds, are possible into early evening from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, western portions of South Dakota and Nebraska, Montana, and the western Colorado Plateau. ...NE/SD... Strong surface heating and deep mixing will occur along a surface lee trough across from the NE Panhandle into southwest SD. Though boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat marginal, a narrow corridor of MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg should develop with minimal MLCIN. Most CAM guidance suggest a few storms should form near the surface trough during the late afternoon. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and moderately elongated hodographs could support a couple high-based supercells capable of isolated severe wind and hail for a few hours into the early evening. ...MT... An amplified upper trough centered on BC will shift east across the Canadian Rockies towards SK through 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will deepen over southeast AB into southern SK, with a trailing cold front sharpening over MT. With PW values largely between 0.5 to 0.75 inches this morning, boundary-layer moisture will be quite limited. Very deep boundary-layer mixing with meager buoyancy atop that along the surface front should be just enough to promote very high-based convection from southwest to central MT. While the bulk of stronger mid-level westerlies will be confined to the cool side of the surface front, adequate strengthening will support semi-organized skeletal clusters capable of isolated severe outflow gusts spreading east-northeast. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... A remnant MCV over far southern IL should drift east into western KY. To the northeast of this MCV, broad but weak mid-level southwesterlies will exist within a seasonably rich PW moisture plume. The persistence of weak convective outflows, differential surface heating, and terrain will support a broad swath of scattered thunderstorms. Relatively greater potential for damaging microbursts in predominately pulse and slow-moving multicell clusters should exist from the Upper OH Valley into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic where MLCAPE can exceed 2000 J/kg. But the lack of greater vertical shear will be detrimental to an organized severe threat. See MCD 1648 and later MCDs this afternoon for additional short-term forecast information. ...Western CO Plateau vicinity... A belt of enhanced mid-level easterlies becoming more southeasterly later today will persist to the north of an MCV drifting west across the Lower CO Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop northwestward off the Mogollon Rim across the western CO Plateau and spread towards the southern Great Basin. Marginally severe hail will possible in initial updrafts transitioning to mainly a marginally severe wind threat later. ..Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2022 Read more

MD 1648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022 Areas affected...North-central PA into southern/central NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041619Z - 041815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible as thunderstorms spread northeastward this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arc of convection has moved from western into north-central PA through the morning, with occasional 30-35 kt gusts noted. While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region, unidirectional southwesterly flow may be sufficient to maintain loosely organized convection in association with this arc and related cold pool as it moves northeastward into a destabilizing environment, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind gusts. Additional storm development is expected downstream into parts of southern/central NY this afternoon, which may also pose a localized damaging wind threat as low-level lapse rates steepen with time. With the threat expected to remain relatively isolated and disorganized, watch issuance is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42647697 43107539 43147492 42867454 42197508 41507610 41137662 40967706 40777809 41447879 41787899 42647697 Read more

The Gem Lake Fire started the afternoon of July 14, 2022, when a single engine airplane crashed igniting the fire. Two large Chinook Helicopters, were assisted by a smaller helicopter and the Gila National Forest Helitack crew.  The Blacktooth and Black Hills Wildland Fire Modules engaged with suppression efforts from the ground.  Local crews continue to patrol the fire intermittently. To protect public and firefighter safety, an emergency closure order is in place through August 15, 2022 for the area around the fire and includes Forest System Trail 040, North Rock Creek.

Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to assist on a fast moving wildfire burning in Wise County late on August 3, 2022. The Deep Creek Fire is burning north of Rhome, Texas near Pioneer Road and Highway 287 in grass and brush vegetation.The Deep Creek Fire initially prompted evacuations in the area. More information concerning evacuations can be found on the Wise County Office of Emergency Management Facebook Page: https://bit.ly/3JxkkV0.At this time all evacuations have been lifted and power is being restored to the area. The fire has been knocked down and is now being mopped up to ensure no further growth.Texas A&M Forest Service was requested for assistance but thanks to the hard work of fire departments from Wise, Parker, Denton, and Tarrant counties the fire was knocked down prior to their arrival. After some discussion Texas A&M Forest Service was released and will not be taking any action on this fire. Look to Wise County Office of Emergency Management Facebook Page for any...

Portola Redwoods State Park will close its campground facilities with 55 sites on Aug. 5 through the remainder of the season due to low flows in its main water supply, Peters Creek. Park operations rely on the water for restrooms, showers, drinking water and fire suppression. Drought forced similar closures in 2014, 2015, and 2021. SFGate (San Francisco, Calif.), July 26, 2022

Colorado Parks and Wildlife dropped the angler limits at the Jumbo Reservoir near Julesburg and the Queens Reservoir north of Lamar. The agency expects both reservoirs to soon run dry and lose all fish. The loss of the fish will harm local businesses near the reservoir that depend on anglers and may not see many of them for a few years as Colorado Parks and Wildlife rebuilds the fisheries. The Colorado Sun (Denver), July 29, 2022

Governor Kathy Hochul on July 29 directed the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to issue a drought watch for 21 New York counties after consulting with the State Drought Management Task Force and federal partner agencies. New York State is encouraging residents in affected counties, particularly those dependent on private groundwater wells, to conserve water whenever possible during the coming weeks. New York State Governor (Albany), July 29, 2022

More than 100 towns in Massachusetts currently have mandatory restrictions on outdoor water use, according to data from the state Department of Environmental Protection. Many of the restrictions took effect in the spring or when summer began. The Boston Globe (Mass.), July 27, 2022

The 5,644-acre Dodge Springs Fire is 100-percent contained. The fire area will be monitored by air for the next couple of operational periods. The lightning-ignited fire was first reported at approximately 2:45 p.m., Thursday, July 21, about 25 miles southeast of Caliente,

The Suffolk County Water Authority was getting ready to expand its water emergency for the three East End towns of Southampton, East Hampton and Southold as lawn watering depletes water tanks overnight, which may not leave adequate supplies for essential services like firefighting. Conditions are most dire in Southampton Village, where one critical water tank has nearly gone dry overnight when many homeowners have their irrigation systems running. Newsday (Melville, N.Y.), Aug 1, 2022

Extreme heat and drought were leading Vineland water customers to use more water than can be produced. Water restrictions took effect to offset low water pressure, supply issues and public safety concerns. Vineland Daily Journal & Hammonton News (N.J.), July 29, 2022

An ill-advised attempt to burn a spider in the foothills of the Wasatch Mountains in Utah County turned into a fire that charred more than 60 acres from the base to the top of the mountain. Heavy rain helped bring the fire under control. Deseret News (Salt Lake City, Utah), Aug 2, 2022

Falling water levels and rising temperatures on the Big Hole River prompted the Big Hole Watershed Committee to warn both irrigators along the river and anglers to prepare for water use conservation measures and to adjust their angling habits. Montana Standard (Butte), Aug 3, 2022

As of Aug. 3, the Dalton Highway Complex InciWeb pages will no longer be updated. For wildland fire information, please contact the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Information office at (907)356-5511 or go to akfireinfo.com.Management of the complex of 17 fires was transferred back to the BLM Alaska Fire Service Tanana Fire Management Zone on Aug. 3, 2022. The fires showed very little activity or smoke in the past week. All equipment was removed from the field and all firefighting personnel have demobilized. The fires will continue to burn with little anticipated activity until a season-ending weather event. California Interagency Incident Management Team 14 transferred command of the complex to a Type 4 organization from the BLM Alaska Fire Service on July 27. Prior to the transition, many firefighters were released from the incident; the base camp at the Arctic Circle Campground was deconstructed and re-opened to the public at the end of July; and much of the firefighting tools,...

UPDATE: Crews will continue working to mop up and strengthen containment lines around the Boldt Fire. Containment is now listed at 95 percent.Human activity was responsible for starting a 327-acre wildfire July 30 near Boldt Road in Westhoff, DeWitt County. The fire is believed to have been ignited by chains from a vehicle, which caused sparks to ignite dry grass in a pasture. The fire was pushed by winds gusting up to 25 miles-per-hour from the south/southeast, which had endangered several structures. The fire moved quickly through the fine fuels and brush. The Texas A&M Forest Service worked in a unified command with the Westhoff Volunteer Fire Department. Also assisting were Cuero VFD, Yorktown VFD, Nordhiem VDF, Ander-Weser VFD, Goliad VFD, Schroeder VFD, Meyersvile VFD, Thomaston VFD, Smiley VFD, Nixon VFD, Runge VFD, as well as Yorktown and Cuero Emergency Medical Services. Firefighters were also assisted by Cuero Regional Hospital and Nitro Construction who supplied...