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Wine grape growers were harvesting grapes about two weeks early this fall as drought, early-season frost and late-season extreme heat caused the grapes to begin raisining. About three-fourths of the wine grapes in Sonoma County have been picked. Yields for pinot noir and zinfandel have so far been lighter than previously expected. North Bay Business Journal (Santa Rosa, Calif.), Sept 29, 2022

Fairview Fire Forest Closure MapCurrent Acres:28,307     Containment: 98%    The Fairview fire began on September 5, 2022, near Bautista Road and Fairview Avenue in the unincorporated county area of Hemet.  The fire grew quickly growing to the South and West into the communities of Cactus Valley, South Hemet, and Sage, as well as burning South and East into the Bautista and Blackburn Canyons and the Red Mountain area on the south-west side of the San Jacinto District of the San Bernardino National Forest. Suppression repair continues along Rouse Ridge (5S15) Road and  Little Thomas Mountain Road  (6S13).  Suppression repair primarily consists of repairing damage caused by dozers and other supression equipment, Smoothing road surfaces and water drainage features by using a road maintainer blade, and brush mastication along the road edge to improve visibility.  The fire perimeter is being patrolled and monitored by fire suppression resources assigned to the incident. ...

The fire danger was rising with the NWS recognizing all 75 Arkansas counties as being in high wildfire danger. About half of counties in Arkansas were under a burn ban. Talk Business and Politics (Lowell, Ark.), Oct 2, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, which is located inland over southwestern Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the southwest the
low-level center, only a slight increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or
tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or
northward-northwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this
system over the next several days is likely to be slow to occur due
to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Ongoing drought has caused the Mississippi River at Memphis to drop to its lowest level in a decade and is the eighth lowest level ever recorded for the river, per the National Weather Service. At present, there was no rain in the forecast. Some areas were dangerously low and may hinder or even halt barge traffic. Soybean and corn harvests were just beginning with a significant portion of the grain typically moved to the Gulf via the river. Talk Business and Politics (Lowell, Ark.), Oct 2, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 17:54:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 15:22:27 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031753 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 105.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Mazatlan to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Orlene is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland over west-central Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected through tonight, and Orlene is forecast to dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday: Northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. Southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 3 17:44:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 3 17:44:02 UTC 2022.

The Cyclone Lookout detected the Quartz Fire in Glacier National Park on August 14. The fire is located west of the Continental Divide in the Quartz Creek drainage below Vulture Peak. The fire is burning in steep terrain in subalpine fir and brush south of Quartz Lake. Since the fire was detected, it has grown to over 1900 acres. Much of that growth occurred August 17th through 19th. The fire received over ¾” of rain the week of August 22, which limited fire activity and growth. Fire behavior increased September 7th with the passage of a strong cold front, with uphill runs and group tree torching. Conditions abated on September 8th with cooler temperatures and higher humidity levels. Aerial observations of the fire show a mixed severity burn pattern, meaning that areas within the fire perimeter burned at different intensities. The Quartz Fire so far has resulted in some understory burning in less intense areas, and other areas with a higher burn intensity where most of the...

The North Camas Fire was detected in the upper Camas Creek drainage high on the north ridge of Heavens Peak around 7:00 pm on Sunday, September 4. The fire was first detected from Swiftcurrent Lookout. The North Camas Fire is burning in very steep, inaccessible terrain and is estimated at 71 acres as of September 11th. The arrival of seasonal fall conditions has kept fire activity minimal, and no change is expected until snow cover extinguishes the last few smokes. Glacier National Park Fire Staff will continue to monitor weather and fire behavior until the fires are declared out. This will be the last update unless significant activity

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states will slowly move east into the adjacent Atlantic during the period as a mid-level low shifts slowly east across the Dakotas. An extension of the mid-level trough over the north-central U.S. will protrude farther southwest into NM. A plume of modest moisture and heating will promote isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest north-northeastward into parts of the Upper Midwest. A few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near the immediate coast from NJ to Cape Cod. ..Smith.. 10/03/2022 Read more

High irrigation demand during the 2022 growing season amid extreme drought led to a well in Haskell County running dry. Well production has been limited for the past seven years, but it had slowed to 100 gallons per minute and was just pumping sand. Corn yield in the field was just 15 bushels per acre. A number of wells in the region went dry this summer as conditions this year have been exceedingly difficult, similar to the 2011-2012 drought years. The water table at an index well in Haskell County, Kansas, dropped to almost 400 feet below the surface in late August 2022. This would not be the first time a drop of 100 feet in the water table was observed during the irrigation season. KTIC AM 840 98.3 FM (West Point, Neb.), Oct 2, 2022

A wildfire in the Nebraska National Forest blazed through more than 15,000 acres in a few hours' time on Oct. 2 and destroyed the Nebraska State 4-H Camp. The nearby campgrounds and the village of Halsey were under evacuation orders. The region was in severe drought. Lincoln Journal Star Online (Neb.), Oct. 3, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central and Southern Plains... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments. Higher than expected humidity recoveries have developed farther north across portions of northeastern NE and eastern SD. Low-level drying may be somewhat delayed resulting in RH values above 25% this afternoon. Locally gusty winds may still support a few hours near-elevated fire weather concerns within very dry fuels, but widespread elevated conditions are no longer expected. Dry and breezy conditions conducive to sustained fire weather concerns are most likely across portions of western KS near the lee trough this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 10/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northern Plains today, encouraging the persistence of surface lee troughing and associated dry southerly flow. Across the central Plains, a narrow corridor exists where Elevated dry and windy conditions will overspread receptive fuels in the absence of rainfall. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this corridor, mainly for early afternoon into early evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur over northern Arizona through early evening. ...Northern Arizona... A positive-tilt upper trough centered over southern Nevada will continue east-southeastward toward the Four Corners area through tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates accompany the trough-related mid-level cold core (-14C at 500 mb). As further boundary layer heating/destabilization occurs into this afternoon, some stronger storms may develop and persist even with relatively weak winds aloft. A few of these storms could episodically produce hail to near severe levels through the afternoon before weakening by around sunset. ...North-central High Plains... Isolated stronger storms may also form later today over the Black Hills and the Nebraska Panhandle. Stronger winds aloft will promote some risk of more persistent structures, but limited low-level moisture will keep CAPE values rather low today. Nevertheless, small hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out in a storm or two. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/03/2022 Read more

Today: Management of the Bull Gin Complex will transition to the Kootenai National Forest as a type 4 incident on Sunday, 10/2 at 0700. Today crews wrap up suppression repair work on the Government and Billiard Fires. The fire continues to slowly creep and smolder through dried fuels, containment lines are in place. Firefighters continue point protection of structures and fire progression monitoring. Road and trail closures for the Isabella Lake Fire are lifted as of 0800 Friday, 9/30. Road and trail closures for the Government and Billiard Fires will be lifted at 0800 Monday, 10/3. Public Resources:   ·         Daily Fire Updates can be accessed here or through the News tab in the blue bar located in the upper portion of this page.  ·         A variety of maps are added daily to the Maps section in the blue bar in the upper portion of this page, or via this direct link.  ·         Public meetings may occur in the coming days. Announcements for...

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 the center of Orlene was located near 23.3, -105.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Radar data from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, showed that the eyewall of Orlene moved onshore earlier this morning, but it appears that there was some east-northeast to west-southwest tilt between the mid-level center seen in the radar imagery and the surface center due to moderate to strong west-southwesterly shear. It is estimated that Orlene made landfall around 1345 UTC just north of the border of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa. The maximum winds and minimum pressure at landfall were estimated at 75 kt and 980 mb, respectively. With the center moving farther inland, the intensity has been reduced to 65 kt. Rapid weakening is expected to occur today as Orlene interacts with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico and moves into an area of even stronger west-southwesterly shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by this evening, and dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 020/9 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast philosophy. The cyclone should continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern side of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted east of the previous advisory due to a more eastward initial position. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. 3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.9N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown