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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

Dry wells and dwindling streams for livestock were noteworthy in Cass and Pottawattamie counties in southwest Iowa. “I’ve lived here 23 years, and I’ve never seen the (Nishnabotna) River this low — ever,” said an Extension field agronomist. “And it’s been this low for five months.” Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Nov 21, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into far west Texas and southern/eastern New Mexico. Fuels within this region are expected to undergo drying on Thursday with poor recovery overnight. ERCs are forecast to be in the 50-75th percentile within the Texas Panhandle. Further south and west, fuels remain seasonally moist. However, dormant fine fuels are expected to dry, which will support potential for fire spread, given the strong winds. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Given that larger fuels are not as receptive to spread, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. Spotty critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more