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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2022 17:47:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2022 15:22:34 GMT

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 1 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 1 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms with gusty winds and small hail may occur from eastern Utah northeast into the central High Plains on Sunday, however the overall severe risk appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low over the northern Rockies will lift slowly northeast Sunday while an upper trough persists along the vicinity of the east coast. In between, a ridge of high pressure will extend from the southern Plains north into the upper Midwest. Over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, low-level moisture/instability will be lacking and thunderstorms are not expected. Available moisture coupled with diurnal heating will result in sufficient instability for thunderstorm development from Arizona northeast through the Rockies and central/northern high Plains. Cool mid-level temperatures and modestly enhanced flow associated with the upper low may result in a few stronger storms across eastern UT and western CO, and also across the central high Plains as an embedded impulse within southwesterly mid-level flow lifts northeast. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible, however weak buoyancy should limit the overall severe potential. ..Bunting.. 10/01/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail may accompany the stronger storms across parts of the Four Corners today, including portions of southern Utah into Colorado. ...Four Corners to eastern Colorado/Wyoming... Within an amplified large-scale pattern over CONUS, a prominent closed upper low over the northern Intermountain region will tend to gradually weaken and spread slowly northward through tonight. Within its base, a belt of moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the region. An east-northeastward pivoting vort max appears to be influencing scattered showers/thunderstorms early today across eastern Utah/western Colorado. Additional storms are expected to redevelop later this afternoon near the front across southern Utah into southwest Colorado. Despite dewpoints only in the 40s F, strong heating and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will result in weak but sufficient CAPE for a few high-based storms capable of gusty/locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. This activity will spread eastward into western Colorado later today before weakening after sunset. Farther east, a few stronger storms may also occur or persist into eastern portions of Wyoming/Colorado this afternoon. Sufficient low-level moisture and buoyancy should exist for some stronger/sustained updrafts, although modest mid-level lapse rates by Front Range/High Plains standards may temper updraft intensity a bit. While some gusty winds/small hail could occur with these mostly linear clusters, organized/sustained severe storms are not currently expected. ..Guyer/Moore.. 10/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible east of a lee trough across portions of the High Plains this afternoon. RH values in the teens to low 20% range may temporarily overlap with sustained winds of 15 mph and higher gusts. Winds are forecast to remain gusty overnight, though humidity values should quickly recover to near 60%. Limited spatial coverage and the brevity of elevated conditions suggest low confidence in sustained elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A lee trough across the Central Plains will continue the dry and breezy conditions on Saturday. Corridors of elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, mainly across western Kansas where relative humidity will drop to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. The coverage and period of elevated fire-weather conditions. Due to this threat being brief and isolated, no critical areas are included at this time. In this area, fuels remain in the 80th to 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011450 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSM/IS overpass indicate that Orlene is becoming better organized, with the central convection becoming more symmetric and starting to develop into an eyewall. There have also been hints of an eye on infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates at 12Z were in the 55-65 kt range, and since that time estimates from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased to over 70 kt. Based on this data, Orlene is upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Orlene later today. Orlene should be in a moist and light-shear environment for about the next 24 h, and with the increased core organization steady to rapid intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 24 h. After that, strong southwesterly shear should cause steady to rapid weakening until landfall in Mexico. This should be followed by dissipation over the mountains of northwestern Mexico between 72-96 h. While it cannot be ruled out that Orlene could reach mainland Mexico as a hurricane, the chances of that have decreased since yesterday based on the current trends and guidance. The new intensity forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast and lies near or at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Orlene continues moving slowly northward at 360/4 kt, to the west of a mid-level ridge. After about 12 h, the cyclone should turn north-northeastward in the flow between this ridge and an upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. This north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue until Orlene dissipates over mainland Mexico. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered around this track, although the GFS is a bit to the right of the other models. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and is just a little to the left of the previous forecast. Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Las Islas Marias. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the west-central mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain in Southwest Mexico through Monday evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.6N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011449 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) 51(55) 19(74) 5(79) X(79) X(79) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 23(44) X(44) X(44) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011449 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Discovered on August 14th, the Blackburn Fire is located just north of the Heller Creek Campground near the headwaters of the St. Joe River. Several other fires were detected the same weekend, all from a single lightning storm days before. Fire managers prioritized initial attack efforts based on location of new starts, values at risk, and safe access for firefighting personnel. For those reasons, the Blackburn Fire has shifted to a suppression strategy of point and zone

MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Areas affected...Southern to eastern Utah and western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301802Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern and eastern Utah will gradually increase in intensity through the afternoon. These storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, but will most likely remain too limited in coverage to require watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection across central/southern UT has shown signs of gradual intensification over the past 1-2 hours with deepening echo tops and a steady increase in lightning counts. This trend is likely being driven by a diurnal increase in buoyancy coupled with broad, but persistent lift ahead of an upper-level perturbation embedded within the circulation of the upper low over ID. As this perturbation continues to pivot east into UT, deep-layer shear will increase to around 30-40 knots and support storm organization. Modest low-level moisture will limit overall instability, but steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled by the 12 UTC SLC and GJT soundings) will support 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE by mid/late afternoon. The low boundary-layer moisture content will also support steep low-level lapse rates where skies remain mostly clear. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest 0-3 km lapse rates may already be as high as 8 C/km ahead of the deepening convection, which will support downdraft acceleration. A few instances of marginally severe hail are possible given the thermodynamic and somewhat elongated wind profiles, but strong to severe wind gusts will likely be the predominant hazard given the low-level thermodynamics. The isolated to scattered nature of the convection, coupled with the modulating effects of modest buoyancy, should limit the overall severe potential and the need for a watch this afternoon. ..Moore/Bunting.. 09/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 39121095 39771010 40030929 39950858 39600806 38760768 37700816 37430902 37181051 37141166 37111248 37851264 38331214 39121095 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

South-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disturbed weather located about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to remain low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The remnants of Ian are forecast to drift north/northeast on Saturday across western/central NC/VA toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. While moderate low-level winds and vertical shear will reside over the region, limited heating due to cloud cover and widespread precipitation will limit destabilization. Any stronger surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast through the period, limiting tornado potential across the Delmarva region. To the west, an upper low will meander over ID/WY/MT, while an upper ridge remains oriented from the lower MO Valley into the central/southern Plains. Several mid/upper shortwave impulses will rotate around the western upper low in the vicinity of the central/northern high Plains. Southeasterly upslope low-level winds will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward into northeast CO into western NE. Stronger heating will reside to the east of this meager moist axis, but some weak destabilization will occur, aided by steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest vertical shear and weak instability should limit thunderstorm organization/intensity and overall severe potential, though some gusty outflow winds will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z The previous forecast remains valid with only minor expansion of the Elevated area farther north based on the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns will be possible with gusty winds and dry surface conditions near a lee trough this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper level low will continue a gradual shift southward across the northern Rockies through the day on Friday. A surface low will deepen across the Central Plains with dry and windy conditions aiding in the potential for spread of any new fires that develop. ...Central Plains and Southeastern California... As the surface low deepens across the Central Plains, increased surface pressure gradients may result in increased south to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions will spread across the Central Plains as afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Elevated conditions will stretch as far north as western Kansas and southeastern Colorado. A few stations across western Kansas may briefly approach critical fire-weather conditions with relative humidity dropping to 15% and sustained winds at 20 mph. ERCs across the Central Plains into eastern Colorado remain in the 80-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0548 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 548 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 301640Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes will continue to develop and move rapidly northwest around the circulation of Hurricane Ian. The tornado potential will gradually shift north across the watch area through this afternoon and this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Norfolk VA to 60 miles southwest of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 14045. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible today across the coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia, in association with Hurricane Ian. A few strong gusts may also occur across portions of Utah into Colorado Friday afternoon. ...NC/VA... Hurricane Ian will move inland this afternoon across the SC coast and continue moving north tonight. An associated warm front, currently extending northeast from the center along the southern NC coast, is forecast to lift northward in tandem with the center this afternoon. Richer boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dew points in the 70s, is expected to lift northward across eastern NC this afternoon and eventually into southeast VA by evening. Some potential for pockets of greater heating will exist as drier air is entrained into the circulation, contributing to areas of greater surfaced based instability across eastern NC. Strong low/mid-level flow around the circulation will contribute to low-level shear supportive of supercell structures with the risk for a few tornadoes, as supported by most 12z CAM solutions. Transient supercell characteristics have already been observed near and south of the southern NC coast this morning within the more favorable thermodynamic environment. ...UT/CO... Despite some morning cloud cover, surface heating will occur in advance of a cold front, resulting in modest buoyancy by afternoon. Moderately strong westerly mid-level flow (30-35 kts) will result in an environment favorable for some degree of updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon in association with a southeast-moving upper low as modest large scale ascent develops over the area. Isolated strong/damaging gusts should be the primary severe hazard with the strongest storms through early evening. ..Bunting/Moore.. 09/30/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:45:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:29:10 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene has not changed much in organization during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing a small central dense overcast with ragged outer convective banding. Interestingly, a recent SSMI/S overpass indicates that, despite analyses that the shear is 5 kt or less, the convection under the overcast is a bit asymmetric and mainly occurring to the southwest and south of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are essentially unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 48 h. These conducive conditions, combined with the small inner core, should allow steady to rapid strengthening once the core convection becomes more symmetric. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 48 h. After that time, the global models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear that is likely to cause quick weakening. The official forecast calls for a 60-kt intensity just before landfall, and this is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the storm moves faster than currently forecast. The initial motion is still northwestward or 320/4 kt. Rawinsonde data shows a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico to the northeast of Orlene, and a combination of rawinsonde data and water vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. Orlene should turn northward and north-northeastward between these features during the next couple of days, with this general motion continuing for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in 48-60 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico just after 96 h. This forecast is close to the consensus models, but slower than the GFS model. It should be noted that some of the ensemble guidance is forecasting the possibility that Orlene will get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore through 120 h. Watches will likely be required for portions of the western coast of Mexico and the Islas Marias on the next advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 849 FOPZ11 KNHC 301436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 24(29) 46(75) 1(76) X(76) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 1(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 6(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 17(27) 1(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN