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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Great Basin northward, and the central/northern Rockies westward. Mesobeta-scale shots of localized, enhanced large-scale lift, where moving atop pockets of marginally favorable low/middle- level moisture, may prompt transient bursts of shallow cells with very isolated/brief thunder potential, almost anywhere in that swath. However, the most favorable areas for 10% or greater thunderstorm coverage appears to be 1) near-coastal Northwest from northern CA to WA, from portions of the Cascades westward, where the coldest air aloft will overlie the greatest low-level moisture content near its Pacific source, and 2) eastern OR/southwestern ID and vicinity. A strong shortwave trough now nearing the coast has contributed to some lightning offshore and near coastal southwestern OR the last few hours, and that potential should continue and shift inland through the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Another round of potential this evening may accompany a field of ascent preceding a perturbation now well west of Vancouver Island, and progged to dig southeastward toward the northern OR Coast. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/07/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Read more

Pheasant hunting season opens in 37 Texas counties on Dec. 2, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has forecasted a below-average season for hunters. TPWD biologists found fewer birds along survey routes in the Panhandle and South Plains as has been the case in the past five to six years due to dry conditions and limited cover. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco, Texas), Nov 29, 2023

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX will continue to push southeast, aided by a seasonably tight surface pressure gradient between it and a stout anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is generally progged from the Ark-La-Tex on Saturday morning to at least the TN Valley by Saturday night, as an upstream basal shortwave impulse shifts from the Four Corners across the southern Great Plains. Model spread in placement of the surface cyclone/front increases late in the period. ...East TX to the Mid/Deep South... Slower timing of appreciable mid-level height falls over the warm sector on Saturday suggests that more than isolated thunderstorm development should hold off until midday through the afternoon. This would likely allow for a plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg to become established from the Upper TX Gulf Coast towards the Ark-La-Tex amid surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Deep-layer southwesterly shear vectors should be nearly parallel to the orientation of the cold front, supporting a predominant clustered to linear convective mode. As such, convection will likely become widespread by late afternoon into the evening with favorable effective bulk shear for organized updrafts. Low-level shear will be modest with southwest extent where the larger buoyancy is expected, suggesting a predominant severe wind/hail threat. Enlarged low-level hodographs should generally be confined from the Ark-La-Miss to the northeast and east, where surface-based instability should be diminishing with spatial extent. Given the overall model trends for only weak secondary cyclogenesis through 12Z Sunday, the eastern extent of the 15 percent probability area has been held as-is. Confidence is low in just how far east the extent of low-probability wind/tornado threats exist overnight. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more