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Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 849 FOPZ11 KNHC 301436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 24(29) 46(75) 1(76) X(76) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 1(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 6(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 17(27) 1(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301436 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 107.1W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico and in the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of Orlene. Watches will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 the center of Orlene was located near 16.1, -107.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

On September 28, at 4:35pm, Graham FD requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service, for a wildfire five miles NW from the City of Graham. The fire ws located in a heavy, thick brush, it was fast moving and threated four structures. Burkburnett Task Force Dozer constructed containment line around the perimeter of the

The Mississippi River below St. Louis was low from drought just as crop harvests were beginning, which is unfortunate, given how much grain is moved by barges. Tows normally move up to 36 barges at a time, but due to low water levels, will only move 25 barges at a time. Since the start of September, 1,890 grain barges have unloaded in New Orleans, which is about 39% fewer than the five-year average. “The tight barge supply is problematic for grain shippers heading into harvest,” according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Grain Transportation Report. “Unless barge supply improves, the increased demand for barges from grain shippers during harvest will likely put even more upward pressure on barge rates.” The Associated Press (New York), Sept 29, 2022

The Williams Creek Fire was detected August 29 and is located on the Red River Ranger District approximately five miles west of Orogrande in the Gospel Hump Wilderness. Ground and aerial firefighting resources responded with aggressive initial attack at time of detection, but the fire growth outpaced these efforts. A point protection strategy has been implemented to protect the community of Orogrande and other values at risk. Update Sept. 29, 2022: The Williams Creek and Twin Lakes fires have recently shown no significant fire activity. This InciWeb page will no longer be updated unless an unexpected increase in activity occurs. For continued Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests wildfire information updates, please

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 29 18:08:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MT...FAR EASTERN ID...AND NORTHWEST WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Areas affected...Parts of western MT...far eastern ID...and northwest WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291806Z - 292030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail should gradually increase in the next few hours. Overall, the severe risk is expected to remain marginal and localized. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed midlevel low tracking slowly eastward across the Northwest, preceded by increasing DCVA/large-scale ascent characterized by modest midlevel height-falls over the last 12 hours. As the increasing ascent continues overspreading a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone from western MT into eastern ID, convection will gradually increase in coverage given continued destabilization/steepening low/midlevel lapse rates this afternoon. Regional VWP data depicts 30-40-kt south-southwesterly midlevel flow preceding the closed midlevel low, which should favor modestly elongated/straight midlevel hodographs (35-45 kt of effective shear) across western MT southward into eastern ID and northwest WY. While buoyancy will be somewhat marginal (generally driven by steep low/midlevel lapse rates), the combination of strengthening forcing for ascent and sufficient deep-layer shear could favor loosely organized convection as it spreads northeastward this afternoon. Marginal hail will be possible with any initial cellular development, though strong to severe gusts should be the main hazard as convection grows upscale into clusters or bands owing to the strengthening large-scale ascent amid straight hodographs. Overall, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal and localized. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 44021131 44781154 45391201 46061243 46961311 47541367 48081387 48461357 48671302 48661173 48261105 47421037 46700996 45770971 44940953 43670964 43450998 43391080 43511120 44021131 Read more

207
ABPZ20 KNHC 291727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific:
Shower activity associated with the remnants of Newton, located
about 1,300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, is minimal and environmental conditions are
no longer favorable for development. The system is expected to move
slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North
Pacific over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible Friday into Friday night across the coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian. A few strong gusts may also occur across the southern and eastern Utah/western Colorado vicinity Friday afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northern Rockies is forecast to drift slowly southward Friday, while expansion/evolution of an eastern U.S. low occurs as Ian begins to acquire hybrid/extratropical characteristics later in the period. At the surface, Hurricane Ian is forecast to be located off the southeastern U.S. coast early Friday, and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall over coastal South Carolina during the afternoon. Ian's circulation is expected to become increasingly baroclinic with time, as it curves north-northwestward toward/into western North Carolina through the end of the period. ...Northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia... As Ian shifts inland/north-northwestward Friday, moist/tropical air being advected westward/northwestward into eastern portions of the Carolinas and Virginia will maintain modest CAPE within a pseudo "warm-sector." With favorably strong low-level shear east of the storm/south of a baroclinic/warm-frontal type boundary moving northwestward across Virginia, potential for rotating convective cells within bands east of Ian's center is apparent. As such, potential for a few tornadoes remains evident, warranting a bump upward to 5% tornado probability/SLGT risk from extreme northeastern South Carolina northward into southwestern Virginia. The risk will gradually shift northward with time, in tandem with Ian's progression, with the southeastern Virginia risk likely to continue into/through the overnight hours. ...Southern and eastern Utah into western Colorado... As the upper low drifts slowly southward, modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Utah/Colorado area on the southeastern fringe of the cyclone. With cool air aloft, associated with the low, providing steep mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating will contribute to modest (around 500 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through the afternoon. This will support initiation of scattered to isolated, low-topped storms, which may become locally sustained/organized given modestly supportive shear that is expected. This, combined with a rather deep/dry mixed layer may support locally gusty winds with stronger storms, and some potential for a gust or two to reach severe levels. ..Goss.. 09/29/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN UT INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Utah and western Wyoming into western Montana this afternoon and evening. ...Northern UT into MT this afternoon/evening... A midlevel low will move slowly east-southeastward over the northern Rockies, as midlevel height rises occur upstream over the northeast Pacific. Ascent preceding the midlevel low/trough, and an associated low-midlevel baroclinic zone, will provide an environment to support thunderstorms this afternoon/evening from northern UT into MT. Regional 12z soundings revealed modest low-midlevel moisture and the potential for steep low-level lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy with surface heating/mixing. Thus, high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, with the potential for isolated strong outflow gusts based on inverted-v profiles and some downward momentum transfer. Isolated, marginally severe hail may occur in MT, closer to the midlevel cold core. ...Southeast Atlantic Coast through early Friday... The core of Tropical Storm Ian, which has some hybrid/baroclinic characteristics, is moving off the east central FL coast and is forecast to strengthen some while gradually turning more northward toward the Carolinas on Friday (see latest NHC forecasts for details). A cool/dry, continental air mass is entrenched across the Carolinas now, with widespread rainfall offshore. It will take until Friday during the day to bring richer moisture and surface-based buoyancy inland across northeast SC and coastal NC, so any severe/tornado threat should remain offshore until the day-2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/29/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning surface observations and the latest hi-res guidance. Localized elevated conditions will be possible this afternoon across northeast NV as well as the OK/TX Panhandles and portions of the central Plains. However, confidence in the duration/coverage of these conditions remains too limited for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 09/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface pressure gradients between Hurricane Ian and the surface high near the Great Lakes will continue on Thursday, allowing lingering areas of elevated fire weather to be possible across the far western Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama. ...Alabama/Florida Panhandle... Areas of elevated fire weather are possible across the far western Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama on Thursday where minimum humidity around 30 percent will coincide with northeasterly winds sustained at 15-20 mph. Fuels along the Florida Panhandle into Alabama continue to be critically dry above the 95 percentile. Further east along the Florida Panhandle, low clouds may increase in the afternoon as moisture moves in from the east due to Hurricane Ian's continued track off the East Coast. This may keep afternoon relative humidity above elevated thresholds with lighter surface winds amid more shallow mixing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:49:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:35:08 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Orlene is getting better organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast with an outer convective band in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. Orlene is being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone reaches the western end of the ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF, which forecast less development, take the storm more westward south of Baja California, while the GFS and the Canadian, which forecast a stronger and more vertically deep storm, forecast Orlene to turn northward into the southern Gulf of California toward northwestern Mexico. Give the current trends and the forecast intensities, the track forecast leans towards the GFS/Canadian solution and shows Orlene turning northward and moving into northwestern Mexico between days 4-5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for the 72 h or so. The majority of guidance, except the aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET, indicate steady strengthening during this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. The intensities during the first 72 h have been increased to better match the trend of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Orlene is likely to encounter increasing shear and a drier air mass, which should cause weakening. However, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models suggest the possibility that the cyclone will still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico, and the new intensity forecast follows that scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 15(31) 4(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 4(36) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 32(39) 17(56) 2(58) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 25(37) 8(45) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 33(54) 4(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 15(35) 2(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to the north is forecast to occur on Friday, and that motion should continue over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Orlene is expected to become a hurricane by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 the center of Orlene was located near 15.1, -105.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.