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The Twist Creek Fire started by lightning on August 23rd is located 28 miles southeast of Elk City, Idaho and 2 miles south of Sabe Vista along the Magruder Corridor in Idaho’s Frank Church of No Return Wilderness.Structure protection  has been complete at the  Horse Heaven Cabin and along the Magruder Corridor. Fire managers are utilizing a point protection strategy to prevent any critical wilderness infrastructure from being negatively impacted by the

Fierce heat and drought in Arkansas limited hay and grass growth. August rains allowed farmers to grow some hay, but farmers still do not have enough to get through the winter. KTHV-TV Little Rock (Ark.), Sept 21, 2022

Iowa's drought has been hard on the soybean crop, apart from the northeast part of the state. An agronomist in the west central part of the state expected that many fields may yield 45 to 55 bushels per acre. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Sept. 22, 2022

Inflation and drought are testing Oklahoma farmers and ranchers. Many worry about finances and whether they can keep the farm going as generations before them did. The stress and pressure can take a mental toll. KSWO-TV ABC 7 (Lawton, Okla.), Sept 22, 2022

Kansas will provide emergency drought assistance for agricultural businesses dealing with water shortages. The assistance comes as part of the state's Economic Recovery Loan Deposit Program, which has identified $60 million in funds to provide low-interest loans for agricultural businesses. KSHB-TV NBC 41 Kansas City (Mo.), Sept 22, 2022

Drought on Long Island has made produce smaller and required farmers to work harder, moving irrigation equipment to keep the crops alive. The fuel for irrigation is a large expense and cuts into profit. The corn maze is shorter than usual, and the pumpkins smaller, too. News 12 The Bronx (New York), Sept 21, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southern Great Plains while a mid-level trough will progress east across the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. A narrow moist sector resulting in weak instability may result in a few thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and parts of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are also forecast across the FL Peninsula and the Desert Southwest. Weak buoyancy/shear will preclude organized severe thunderstorms. ..Smith.. 09/22/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just off the coast
of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves west-northwestward off the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Newton are issued
under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Newton are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Morning observations show winds across the Columbia Basin sustained at 10-15 mph, gusting to around 20 mph, with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to 60s. Through the afternoon, increasing westerly winds and downslope warming and drying could lead to elevated fire-weather conditions. See discussion below for more details. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid/upper-level low will cross the northern Rockies, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains centered over TX. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending southward along the central High Plains. ...Columbia Basin... On the backside of the mid/upper-level low, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, favoring dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coupled with 20-25 percent RH (aided by downslope warming/drying) will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Northern/Central Rockies and Adjacent Plains... Breezy southerly surface winds will develop across the northern and central Plains in response to the lee troughing, while strong westerly surface winds are expected over WY. For the Plains, a minimal overlap of strong surface winds and low RH should generally mitigate the fire-weather threat, though locally elevated conditions could still occur where fuels are dry. Over WY, a corridor of strong westerly surface winds could overlap dry boundary-layer conditions, though recent/ongoing precipitation casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds remain possible this afternoon from coastal southern New England into eastern North Carolina. Isolated marginally severe hail/wind may also occur across a portion of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming later this afternoon. ...Southern New England to NC... Potential still exists for convection to briefly strengthen from NJ to southern New England. A confined corridor of robust insolation from NJ southward yielded surface temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s just ahead of mixed convective/stratiform frontal rain bands. The time-window for convection to intensify before the front shifts off the coast is limited to the next hour or two, but strong deep-layer flow will support a conditional damaging wind threat along the immediate coastal areas. From the Delmarva into eastern NC, a longer duration period of robust boundary-layer heating will yield very warm surface temperatures and a relatively deeper mixed boundary-layer. Observed 12Z soundings sampled very poor 600-400 mb lapse rates south of the intense mid-level jet centered across the Mid-Atlantic to New England, where 500-mb temps were -4 to -6 C. This suggests convection developing along the trailing extent of the cold front impinging from the northwest will struggle to deepen and produce lightning. By late afternoon, there may just enough slight cooling aloft coupled with peak boundary-layer heating to support a few stronger gusts in convection that spreads towards the coast through early evening. ...Southeast MT and northeast WY... A shortwave trough centered on northwest MT will gradually shift east across the state through the period. While a leading lobe of ascent is moving through eastern MT late this morning, the next lobe will shift east-northeast from the Yellowstone/Upper Snake Valley area. A pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop between these two waves in the lee of the Big Horns where steepening mid-level lapse rates overspread modest boundary-layer heating. Although forecast soundings indicate pronounced weaknesses in the hodograph through 600 mb where surface-based storms are expected, strong speed shear above that will yield potential for a few cells with transient mid-level rotation. Marginally severe hail and isolated strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible for a few hours centered on late afternoon. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/22/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:48:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:35:18 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone. A microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature. While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core. There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone, but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved microwave structure. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A ridge to the northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic feature influencing the track for the next few days. The track prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain. Global model guidance has largely missed the development and intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size. Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease further. Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline. The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable. The prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 56(58) 10(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 ...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.4 West. Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton is forecast to maintain its strength for a day followed by gradually weakening through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 the center of Newton was located near 17.9, -108.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

As Lake Isabella in Central California drops to 8% capacity, the remnants of Whiskey Flat have reappeared. Dating back to the Gold Rush era, the town was witness to gold discoveries, rivalries and much Old West history. SFGate (San Francisco, Calif.), Sept 6, 2022