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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe convective gusts, or a brief tornado, may occur over parts of the southeast states, and the desert southwest. ...Southeast... A persistent upper low remains over LA today, with a plume of deep, moist southerly flow across much of the southeast states. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity will spread inland this afternoon and affect much of FL/GA. Other more isolated storms will affect parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. Wind fields are modest, but ample moisture and localized enhancements to shear may result in locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCDs #1773 and #1774 for further small-scale details. ...NV/CA... A band of relatively strong easterly mid-level winds extends across northern AZ into southern NV today. Most 12z CAM guidance shows increasing thunderstorm activity along this corridor this afternoon. Forecast soundings show unusually high PWAT values, promoting a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The area of highest threat appears to extend from northern Death Valley into the deserts of southwest NV. ..Hart/Moore.. 09/10/2022 Read more

MD 1774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1774 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101616Z - 101815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or two is possible through the afternoon hours as thunderstorms continue to develop off the Carolina coast and move onshore. A watch is not expected given the limited nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...A pair of weak circulations have been tracked from the KLTX radar in far southeast NC over the past 20-30 minutes. These circulations are associated with largely unorganized marine convection that has begun to move onshore. However, the easterly low-level onshore flow under modest southerly winds between 2-3 km is providing sufficient low-level SRH to support weak storm rotation with the stronger updrafts. This kinematic environment is sampled well by the KTLX VWP, and likely extends northward along the NC coast. Latest visible satellite trends show additional cumulus development offshore, slowly moving towards the coast. Buoyancy will likely continue to increase through the day amid daytime heating and will support additional T-storm chances through the afternoon. Forecast soundings hint that the best kinematic environment will persist now through around 21 UTC, but the overall limited wind magnitudes will support a rather low-end waterspout/tornado threat along the coast. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 33517946 34137899 34817758 35147664 34867609 34507623 34147696 33717789 33477851 33347913 33517946 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Offshore flow across the Pacific Northwest should continue to weaken through the day as the surface pressure diffuses further. Elevated highlights have been maintained as a widespread, very dry low-level airmass remains in place, atop critically dry fuels. Despite a large-scale weaker surface wind field, at least locally stronger winds should persist in terrain-favoring areas with boundary-layer heating/mixing. Otherwise, locally Elevated conditions may still occur later this afternoon east of the Cascades into the Snake River Plain from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho. ..Squitieri.. 09/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move slowly eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, while a mid/upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. Subsidence on the backside of the trough will reinforce an expansive area of high pressure over the northern and central Rockies, while surface low pressure gradually weakens off the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Northwest... Between the surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast and high pressure over the northern/central Rockies, an enhanced surface pressure gradient will support breezy easterly surface winds across parts of the Northwest. Along and west of the Cascades, 15-20 mph sustained surface winds coupled with 15-25 percent RH will lead to elevated fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels over the area. The strongest winds are expected through the Cascade gaps early in the period, before the regional pressure gradient weakens during the late afternoon/early evening hours. While locally critical conditions will be possible primarily over terrain-favored areas along the Cascades, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights at this time. East of the Cascades, locally elevated conditions will be possible in the Columbia Basin and through the Snake River Plain, though a limited overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH precludes highlights for these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Potter Fire was reported at 9:00am, Sunday, July 31, 2022.  It is near Potter Mountain on the Middle Fork Ranger District of the Willamette National Forest. Its size was originally estimated at 60 acres, as of mid August it is about 500 acres. Fire crews are used burn out operations to safely bring fire to established fire lines. Mop up of hot spots along firelines is being completed and fire suppression repair has

Connecticut Water reminds its customers to conserve water as the drought persists. CT Insider (Norwalk, Conn.), Sept. 10, 2022 Connecticut Water customers are asked to voluntarily conserve water as drought persists and worsens in the eastern part of the state. It is recommended that people stop lawn watering, cover swimming pools and check for leaks, among other things. Hartford Courant (Ct.), Aug 27, 2022

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 9 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 9 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 17:47:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 15:28:49 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091746 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday... Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 the center of Kay was located near 30.7, -117.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located just off the northern Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure may form south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
thereafter while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears generally low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress slowly eastward across the north-central CONUS on Saturday. Limited low-level moisture ahead of a surface cold front should hinder the development of meaningful instability from the southern/central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. While thunderstorms may occur along/behind the length of the front across these areas, severe convection is not expected. A weak upper low centered over the lower MS Valley Saturday morning is forecast to devolve into a trough through the day. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow should be present ahead of this feature across portions of the Southeast. Even with a rich low-level airmass in place from FL into GA and the Carolinas, mid-level lapse rates will likely remain quite poor. This should hinder robust updrafts to some extent, even as weak to locally moderate instability develops with daytime heating. At this point, it appears that generally modest deep-layer shear should keep thunderstorms mostly disorganized, and any strong/gusty wind threat rather isolated. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should occur across parts of NM/AZ into the southern Great Basin Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger low/mid-level winds associated with weakening Tropical Cyclone Kay over the eastern Pacific should be displaced from areas with greater low-level moisture and instability. Accordingly, overall severe potential across the Southwest should remain low. ..Gleason.. 09/09/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms may occur across parts of the Southeast and Upper Great Lakes. ...Southeast States including Florida/eastern GA/coastal SC... To the east of a persistent upper low centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico and middle portion of the Gulf Coast region, scattered showers and thunderstorms are prevalent over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the western Florida Peninsula and other parts of the coastal Southeast. Ample insolation is occurring across the Florida Peninsula to the south of a front coincident with a very moist environment, although weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to temper updraft intensities. Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-tropospheric winds will overlie the front from far northern Florida into southeast Georgia/coastal South Carolina. A few transient supercells could regionally occur, particularly in proximity to this front. A few instances of wind damage are possible aside from the potential for a brief tornado. ...Northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan... Will maintain low severe probabilities across the region in vicinity of the southeastward-moving front. Thunderstorms may persist on an isolated basis today, with renewed development a bit more probable toward/after sunset. An instance or two of severe hail could occur. ...Southern California/southwest Arizona... It still appears that severe potential will remain low north of the international border in association with current Tropical Storm Kay. ..Guyer/Moore.. 09/09/2022 Read more

On September 7, 2022, at 1:30 p.m. a fire was reported to the Agency. The fire is located at T63N, R9W, Section 35–southeast of Lake Three and north of Horseshoe Lake in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. In response, two Beaver float plans began aerial suppression. The fire is estimated at 10 acres. Suppression strategies continue to use aerial water delivery with Beaver aircraft. An upcoming cold front is bringing cooler temperatures, some precipitation and less winds to reassess if conditions are safer to allow firefighters to begin ground suppression. Public safety crews are in the area. Firefighter and public safety are the number on priorities.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track for the Northwest. In addition, the latest guidance consensus depicts locally Elevated/Critical conditions across much of central and eastern Utah into western Wyoming as a surface cold front sweeps across the area. The dry and breezy northwesterly surface winds should be strongest in mainly terrain-favoring areas though, precluding the introduction of any fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will shift eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through the period. On the backside of the trough, a belt of enhanced northwesterly midlevel flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies. As a result, high pressure will strengthen over the northern Rockies, while an elongated area of surface low pressure extends northward along the West Coast. ...Northwest... An enhanced surface pressure gradient between the high pressure over the northern Rockies and low pressure along the West Coast will result in an expansive area of sustained east-northeasterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (with locally higher gusts) across much of the Northwest. The breezy/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-20 percent minimum RH, will lead to elevated fire-weather conditions given receptive fuels across the region. Strong surface winds are expected to persist within the Cascade gaps into Day 2/Saturday morning, where poor overnight RH recoveries are forecast owing to the persistent offshore flow pattern. While locally critical conditions will be possible primarily over terrain-favored areas along the Cascades, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 516 FOPZ12 KNHC 091452 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) S CATALINA IS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN DIEGO CA 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) TIJUANA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) IS GUADALUPE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 307 WTPZ42 KNHC 091453 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Kay is gradually becoming less organized. There is currently minimal convection near its center of circulation, although there is a complex of convective bands occurring about 75-150 n mi north of the center. Doppler radar data from Yuma and San Diego has shown winds as high as 60 kt aloft, although it is unclear how well these winds are mixing down to the surface. Based on the radar and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, and this could be a bit generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Kay. Kay should continue to weaken as it reaches sea surface temperatures of 20-21C by 24 h, and the dynamical model suggest it should stop producing convection near or just after that time. The new intensity forecast shows the cyclone as a minimal tropical storm in 24 h, followed by decay to a remnant low as the convection dissipates and the winds drop below tropical-storm force. The global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate between 96-120 h, and the new intensity forecast follows this. The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/ 11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Kay is expected to cause the cyclone to gradually turn west-northwestward away from land in the next 12 h, followed by a westward turn between 12-24 h. After that time, low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific should steer the remnant low slowly southward and then southeastward before the system dissipates completely. There was little change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Although Kay's intensity has decreased, the tropical cyclone 34-kt wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning today, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning today in Arizona and southern Nevada. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 091452 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF PUERTO LIBERTAD...FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 116.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Residents of Portsmouth, Rhode Island have noticed a change in the water's taste and odor. The water quality may have changed due to conservation amid drought, more contaminants after rain, more treatment chemicals, more algal growth or other factors. The Newport Daily News (R.I.), Sept. 8, 2022