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Flash drought gripped southern Missouri earlier this summer with record heat contributing to the meager hay crop, which is of poor quality or costly. Growing fall fescue would offset the need for hay and be cheaper than hay. Farm Progress (St. Charles, Ill.), Sept 7, 2022

The lack of rain in central and northeast Nebraska was apparent in the brown color of the most dryland crops and pastures. Albion News (Neb.) Sept 6, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2022 17:57:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2022 15:40:01 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071757
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 071756 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 ...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 112.8W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas * San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin * Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Although weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning in the next few hours and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 the center of Kay was located near 21.4, -112.8 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, posing some risk for hail and strong/gusty winds. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A large-scale upper trough will move eastward across western/central Canada and the northwestern into north-central CONUS on Thursday. As a surface low over central Canada develops towards Ontario, a trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through the period. A narrow plume of low-level moisture should be present ahead of the front, mainly across MN into WI and the U.P. of MI. Steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a pronounced EML will overspread the warm sector, with a cap likely acting to inhibit convective development through much of Thursday afternoon. As diurnal heating occurs, weak to moderate instability should develop along and just ahead of the cold front. Owing to lingering convective inhibition associated with the stout EML, a fair amount of uncertainty remains regarding overall thunderstorm coverage late Thursday afternoon into the evening across the Upper Midwest. Still, current expectations are for isolated attempts at convection to occur along the length of the front across MN as modest mid-level height falls and ascent overspread this area ahead of the approaching upper trough. Any thunderstorms that can be sustained should be capable of producing isolated severe hail and strong/gusty winds given favorable deep-layer shear as they move generally east-northeastward Thursday evening/night. ...Wyoming into the Northern/Central High Plains... The trailing portion of the upper trough and related surface cold front are forecast to overspread much of WY into the northern and central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture should remain quite meager across these areas, which will likely limit instability. Any thunderstorms that develop Thursday afternoon along or ahead of the cold front may be capable of producing occasional strong/gusty winds given a fairly dry and deeply mixed boundary layer. But, the overall severe wind potential will probably be tempered by the rather weak instability forecast. ..Gleason.. 09/07/2022 Read more

Drought and heat ravaged many row crops, fruits and vegetables this summer. Some of the especially hard-hit crops were corn, hard red winter wheat, cotton, rice, and grain sorghum, not to mention the many crops grown in California that were cut back for lack of water. The Washington Post (D.C.), Sept. 5, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 7 17:29:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 7 17:29:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND VICINITY... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The ongoing forecast remains on track with minimal changes to the isolated dry thunder area based on observations. A multi-faceted and high-impact fire weather day is still expected across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. In the short term, thunderstorm activity is most likely to occur from central into east-central Oregon as a weak disturbance moves north and east. Greater storm coverage can be expected as heating occurs through the afternoon and mid-level ascent increases late afternoon into the evening. Sustained winds and strong gusts will also increase across north-central Montana later today as the boundary layer deepens substantially. See the previous forecast for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong pattern shift is forecast across much of the western CONUS today and tonight as the prominent ridge of high pressure is broken down by a strengthening Pacific trough. Unseasonably strong winds aloft along with increasing forcing for ascent will overspread the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while a cold front sweeps out of southern Canada. Ahead of the front, an unstable atmosphere along with very warm temperatures and strong winds will support weather conditions favorable for dry thunderstorms as well as extreme fire behavior. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent plains... Across portions of northern ID and MT, westerly winds are forecast to increase early this morning and through much of the day ahead of the approaching cold front. Enhanced by strong surface pressure gradients from the deepening lee low across the southern Canadian Rockies, west-southwest surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely by early afternoon. Deep vertical mixing to 600 mb evident on regional model soundings also shows potential for stronger surface gusts (40-50+ mph) as 50-65 kt of flow aloft approaches. Coincident with peak heating, the well-mixed boundary layer, very warm surface temperatures, and downsloping westerly flow will support low teens to single digit RH values. The combination of hot, dry and windy conditions within very dry fuels lends high confidence to widespread critical and extremely critical fire weather conditions across portions of northern and central MT. Extreme fire weather conditions should continue through the afternoon ahead of the fast-moving cold front arriving after dark. While cooler temperatures and increasing humidity will accompany the frontal passage, a rapid wind direction change to northerly flow is also expected. Fire weather concerns may linger for a few hours overnight before winds gradually decrease and surface humidity recovers. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Ahead of the cold front, dynamic ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with the approaching upper trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from northern CA, through portions of the northern Great Basin, into the northern Rockies. Forecast sounding show generally 0.5 to 0.75 in PWAT values with 100-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Below the unstable layers, high LCLs (2-3 km AGL) and with fast storm motions will favor poor precipitation efficiency and the potential for strong outflow winds over much of the West. Recent fire activity indicates that fuels remain highly receptive across the region and will support critical lightning-driven fire weather concerns. Storm coverage is expected to be greatest along the cold front from portions of eastern OR, central ID, into western MT. HREF lightning probabilities show high confidence in the potential for scattered strike coverage atop highly receptive fuels in this area. Additionally, the risk for convective outflow gusts greater than 60 mph also suggests a high probability of critical fire weather concerns across this region given the expected storm potential. A Scattered dry thunderstorm area was introduced, and additional information related to the severe weather risk is available in the Day1 Convective Outlook. ...Cascades and northern Great Basin... Across the Cascades and Great Basin westerly flow will remain strong in the wake of the cold front farther east. Bolstered by increasing flow aloft from the upper trough, widespread 15-25 mph surface winds are expected along with low humidity. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected within dry fuels. Critical fire weather conditions will also be possible across portions of the northern Great Basin across southern OR, and far northern CA/NV. Here, higher confidence in winds greater than 25 mph exists along with afternoon humidity values below 15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may yield scattered severe wind gusts, a few of which could be significant, across portions of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies, centered on mid-afternoon through early evening. ...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies... A high-impact to extreme fire weather day is anticipated this afternoon into the evening. Please see the latest Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook for details on all hazards. Upper ridge will break down over the region as a vigorous shortwave trough over British Columbia amplifies and shifts east-southeastward toward the Canadian Rockies. Mid-level height falls accompanying this wave will overspread the interior Northwest as a belt of 50-kt 500-mb westerlies becomes centered from northeast Oregon/eastern Washington across northern Montana into southern Saskatchewan. Modest moisture along with record warmth will yield very deeply mixed boundary layers, especially east of the Rockies in Montana and across the Idaho Snake River Valley into southeast Oregon. Dry thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as both the boundary layer deepens and large-scale forcing for ascent strengthens. While buoyancy will be quite meager with MLCAPE of 300 J/kg or less, the extreme lapse rate profiles to 500 mb will support dry downbursts mixing to the surface from high-based/low-topped convection. Latest convection-allowing guidance are consistent in suggesting severe wind gusts will be prevalent within this fast-moving, skeletal activity. The eastern extent of this threat may include amalgamating convective outflows which could maintain severe gusts into eastern Montana despite diminishing lightning flashes this evening. ...Southeast/south-central Texas and southwest Louisiana... A minor mid-level impulse evident in water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex will gradually move south-southwest into south Texas by this evening. A pocket of relatively cooler mid-level temperatures and steeper lapse rates attendant to this impulse should support a plume of moderate to large MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will be modest and generally offset west of the greater instability/buoyancy, isolated marginally severe hail and strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible as scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/07/2022 Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 071510 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Corrected first Key Message Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of the guidance during the first few days of the forecast. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja, a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to the various consensus models. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern California and southwestern Arizona Friday night into Saturday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 071443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 11(11) 66(77) 10(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 31(31) 18(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 34 4 45(49) 38(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P ABREOJOS 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 6 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 14 67(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 25N 115W 50 1 30(31) 10(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 115W 64 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 071443 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Drought has caused the leaves on New England’s trees to turn color early. Leaf color may be muted this year. WBUR-FM Boston Public Radio (Boston, Mass.), Sept 6, 2022

The Bear Trap Fire was reported as 100 acres on May 1, 2022 at 1200 hours in Bear Trap Canyon, San Mateo Mountains, Magdalena Ranger District, Cibola National Forest & National Grasslands. The fire is approximately 22 miles southwest of Magdalena, New Mexico.On May 3, the Albuquerque Zone Type 3 Team assumed command of the fire. The Southwest Type 2 Incident Management Team 4 transitioned with the previous team May 14. California Incident Management Team 10 accepted transfer of command of the fire May 24. The strategy for the Bear Trap Fire is to fully suppress the fire while protecting valuable resources in the area, including natural and cultural resources and infrastructure. Crews have been successful in limiting fire spread to the north, east, and west along previous prescribed fire scars. Minimal fire activity remains along the southern flank in unburned pockets of vegetation and lingering hot spots as crews continue to mop up and patrol. At this time, the fire is not a threat...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2022 17:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2022 15:38:34 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 061733 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 ...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Evaristo northward to Santa Rosalia * North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.5 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A weather station in Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... As of 12:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of Kay was located near 18.4, -110.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.