Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 2 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 2 17:48:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
or early next week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of western Arizona by late Saturday afternoon, and may spread into parts of the lower Colorado Valley and Mojave Desert Saturday evening. ...AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV... Easterly midlevel flow will persist on Saturday across AZ and adjacent portions of southeast CA and southern NV, to the south of a stout upper ridge over the Great Basin. Some drying is expected across southern AZ (compared to D1/Friday), but low-level moisture may remain sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization from the higher terrain of west-central AZ into parts of the Colorado River Valley and Mojave Desert. Storm coverage remains uncertain during the afternoon/evening, but isolated development will be possible near the western part of the Mogollon Rim. Initial discrete development will pose a threat for strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail, with any upscale-growing clusters capable of strong/locally severe gusts into the evening as they spread west-southwestward within the easterly midlevel flow regime. ...Southern Plains... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the southern Plains on Saturday, though it may tend to weaken and become increasingly ill-defined with time. While large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible near the front during the afternoon. Moderate instability and modest northerly deep-layer shear could support some organized convection, though uncertainty remains high regarding storm coverage and the primary corridor of any severe threat, so probabilities have not been introduced at this time. ...Parts of the OH/TN Valleys... Widespread convection will be possible across parts of the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, east of a nearly stationary midlevel trough over the eastern Ozarks region. Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, but midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear currently appear too weak to support a more organized severe-thunderstorm threat within this regime. ..Dean.. 09/02/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA... The primary change made to this outlook was to expand Critical highlights further west into south-central Oregon, where the latest guidance consensus has trended more favorably in terms of Critical surface winds/RH overlapping for several hours late this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... Great Basin ridging is forecast to remain in place over the next several days, but will deamplify slightly as a shortwave trough impinges on its western periphery late tonight. Ahead of the approaching trough, strengthening flow over the northern Sierra will bolster low-level winds across the northern Great Basin and portions of the Northwest. At the same time, a weak cold front will move into the Plains supporting dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible across the Great Basin and central Plains. ...Northern Great Basin to the southern Cascades... Ahead of the trough moving onshore across the West Coast, mid-level flow is forecast to increase late in the day across portions of northern CA/NV, into southern OR. Dry downslope flow from the Sierra, and warm diurnal temperatures will result in afternoon RH values of 10-15%. As flow aloft strengthens, occasional gusts of 15-25 mph should develop within the warm and dry airmass. With area fuels critically dry, spotty critical fire weather conditions appear probable into the evening hours. Farther north, enhanced westerly flow through terrain gaps in the lee of the Cascades may occasionally gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon. With very warm temperatures expected RH values are forecast to fall to near 30%. Dry and unstable condition may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly across portions of interior WA where fuels are very dry. ...Central Plains... In the wake of a cold front moving south out of the northern Plains, gusty northwest winds are expected within a modestly dry post-frontal airmass across portions of western NE and northern CO. While RH will be marginally supportive (25-30%) the gusty winds and locally dry fuels should support a few hours of elevated fire weather risk through the afternoon. Fire concerns will decrease quickly this evening and overnight as better humidity recoveries develop within the cooler air behind the front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening over parts of central/southern Arizona and the Lower Colorado River Valley, and from the central Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado Valley... Visible satellite shows relatively cloud-free skies, which will be conducive for ample insolation/heating coincident with a relatively moist air mass, with prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints in the lower elevations of southern Arizona and middle 50s F dewpoints along the Mogollon Rim as of late morning. An increase in storm coverage as compared to yesterday seems probable. Easterly mid-level/steering winds are and will remain notably strong as the upper high builds to the north over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Upwards of 25-30 kt mid-level winds are plausible across the southern half of Arizona, which would be conducive for storm organization/upscale growth and propagation onto the lower elevations/desert floor and Lower Colorado River Valley. Initial discrete development over the higher terrain/near the Rim will pose a risk for localized severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. However, a more organized/substantial wind threat may emerge with upscale-growing/MCS development by evening. ...Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes... The primary shortwave trough over northeast Manitoba will shift east across southern Hudson Bay/far northern Ontario, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes. A weak mid-level trough will meander east across the Ozarks. In between these features, deep-layer shear will be enhanced across the central Great Plains owing to 25-35 kt mid-level north-northwesterly winds. Weaker deep-layer shear is anticipated with northeast extent along a cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest. A greater potential for scattered thunderstorms along the front should exist in the southeast Minnesota/northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan vicinity given more pronounced low-level convergence and trailing influence of the Ontario trough. Multicell clusters mainly producing isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will be the primary threats. A more isolated thunderstorm coverage is anticipated into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, but given the greater vertical shear and nearly perpendicular orientation of mid-level flow with respect to the front, a few transient supercells embedded within a cluster or two may develop. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible, with increasing MLCIN after dusk being detrimental for sustaining severe potential later into the evening. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/02/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:49:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 15:30:29 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 854 WTPZ41 KNHC 021447 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 087 FOPZ11 KNHC 021447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 20(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 112.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through this weekend. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 the center of Javier was located near 20.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Above normal rainfall led the S.C. Drought Response Committee to ease the drought status for 10 counties on the coastal plain of South Carolina. Fourteen counties are still in incipient drought. Lancaster was upgraded to incipient and three counties -- Chester, Union and York -- were upgraded to moderate. As designated by the South Carolina Drought Response Act, incipient is the first level of drought followed by moderate, severe and extreme. The decision to upgrade York, Chester and Union counties was primarily based on very low rainfall totals over the past 60 days. Cotton from these counties will not be harvested. Orangeburg Times and Democrat (S.C.), Sept 1, 2022

Minnesota oak trees stressed by recent drought have shown signs of infestation by two lined chestnut borer. Oak tree deaths are expected to continue for years. Drought recovery for trees can also take years, but watering your trees can make them more resilient. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (St. Paul, Minn.), Sept 1, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 1 17:49:01 UTC 2022.

241
ABPZ20 KNHC 011738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of West-Central Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to
form later today or tonight while moving northwestward at about 10
mph, likely remaining a couple of hundred miles off the western
coast of Baja California Sur. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening from portions of the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, and also across central and southern Arizona. Strong wind gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across Ontario and Quebec on Friday, with the trailing part of this trough moving across the upper Great Lakes region. A weaker midlevel trough will persist to the southwest across the mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains. A cold front will move across the upper Midwest and the northern/central Plains. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop along and ahead of the front by Friday afternoon. A tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to stay north of the international border renders timing/coverage of storm initiation uncertain, but isolated development appears possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains by late afternoon/early evening. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Northerly midlevel flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters across the Plains during the mid/late evening, though the southwestward extent of any severe threat remains uncertain at this time. ...Arizona... An increase in low-level moisture is expected across parts of Arizona on Friday, which will aid in moderate diurnal destabilization from the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts, and a likely increase in storm coverage (compared to previous days) from late afternoon into the evening. Initial semi-discrete development across the higher terrain may pose a threat of isolated strong wind gusts and hail. Modestly enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the southern periphery of an upper ridge will support the potential for outflow-driven clusters to spread into the lower deserts, posing a threat of isolated severe gusts Friday evening. ..Dean.. 09/01/2022 Read more

Lower flows and forecasted warmer water temperatures prompted a full fishing closure on the entire Beaverhead River from its confluence with the Big Hole River to Clark Canyon Dam south of Dillon. The closure took effect just after midnight on Sept. 1 and will remain in effect until water temperatures cool, and officials find that the fish are less stressed. Bozeman Daily Chronicle (Mont.), Aug 31, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Tropical moisture, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and PW values greater than 2 inches, will persist across the Southeast. Primarily diurnal convection will be focused across south GA/north FL by a weak midlevel low and local sea breeze/differential heating zones. Farther west into the southern Plains, similar moisture exists with embedded/weak midlevel troughs over southwest OK and northern Mexico. The southwest OK wave will move slowly east-northeastward through tonight, in response to an upstream trough digging south-southeastward over KS. Embedded thunderstorms are expected across central OK with the ejecting wave, but lightning may be more prevalent around the northern-eastern-southern periphery of the midlevel trough, with diurnal convection in the zones of differential heating on the edge of the thicker clouds. Otherwise, a larger-scale midlevel trough will move east-southeastward over AB/SK/MB, as a smaller-scale lead wave ejects generally eastward over MT today. Low-level moisture will be limited across the northern Plains, with only a small chance for thunderstorms with the ejecting shortwave trough and a cold front this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 09/01/2022 Read more