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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains this afternoon as an upper wave translates across the region. A pair of upper troughs, noted over the northern Rockies and northwestern Canadian Prairies in morning water-vapor imagery, are expected to phase as they crest a Great Basin upper ridge. This phasing will enhance mid-level flow and shift a Canadian surface low into the Plains through the day. The passage of an associated cold front across the northern Plains, coupled with strengthening flow, will support breezy conditions over a region with receptive fuels and antecedent dry conditions. ...Montana... Latest guidance has delayed the passage of the Canadian cold front across northern/central MT until later in the afternoon/evening compared to previous model runs. While strong surface winds may be less expansive than anticipated, a deepening lee trough and strengthening zonal flow off the Rockies will foster breezy downslope winds. Temperatures in the 90s and RH minimums in the teens to 20s remain likely and will maintain the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. A wind shift to the north/northwest associated with the frontal passage is still expected later today, but may occur just after peak daytime heating during the 00-03 UTC time frame. ...Snake River Plain and Wyoming... 00 UTC soundings from BOI and RIW sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across ID and WY. Recent surface observations show overnight RH values are struggling to recover out of the 20-30% range. Such conditions are conducive for another day of deep boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of the strengthening mid-level flow over the region this afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph appear likely. Confidence remains high in elevated, to briefly critical, conditions through the Snake River Plain. To the east across WY, fire weather concerns are possible across much of the state, but may manifest as numerous pockets of somewhat transient elevated conditions. An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of WY that are most likely to see sustained and sufficiently widespread elevated conditions - namely in the lee of prominent ranges. Further refinement of this risk area is possible as guidance comes into better agreement over the next 12 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Hay and pasture forage losses could approach $100 million, per a report by the Fryar Risk Management Center of Excellence. At least 20 counties in Arkansas were designated disaster areas due to drought, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. About 75% of hay and other pasture fields in the state were considered to be poor or very poor condition. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), Aug 31, 2022

The summer drought is likely to limit the number of New Jersey Christmas trees available and make them more expensive this coming holiday season. Young saplings and even more mature trees died over the hot, dry summer. Even trees that were watered on a Monmouth County tree farm succumbed to the harsh conditions. Asbury Park Press (N.J.), Aug 31, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 31 17:56:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Areas affected...much of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311754Z - 312030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convective coverage and intensity across northwest NE as a small mid-level impulse grazes the central Plains. Ahead of the storms, strong diurnal heating is contributing to surface temperatures exceeding 90 F, with a dry boundary layer growing to 600 mb and low-level lapse rates steepening past 9 C/km. As such, continued intensification of the ongoing storms amid the warm/dry low-level environment should promote enough evaporative cooling to support strong wind gusts, and a few gusts exceeding 50 kts are possible. Nonetheless, shear and upper support are expected to remain weak, so storm organization should remain fairly limited, with any severe gusts being isolated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41170157 41940101 42210045 42549950 42609838 42359706 41709713 41249770 40849831 40549890 40449935 40480062 40500127 41170157 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that this system is developing a low-level circulation, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward
during the next few days, likely remaining a few hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be relatively low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the West on Thursday, while an upper trough may amplify slightly from the central/southern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. A seasonably deep upper trough initially over New England will move northeastward away from the region through the day. In general, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit the threat of organized convection through the period. Northerly midlevel flow across parts of the central/southern High Plains may support sufficient deep-layer shear for some modest storm organization, but uncertainty remains high regarding the extent of destabilization and coverage of storms in this area. Elsewhere, high-based convection could produce locally gusty winds across parts of the northern Plains and also across Arizona. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central/north TX into southern OK, and also across parts of the Southeast, but these storms are expected to remain relatively disorganized. ..Dean.. 08/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and locally damaging wind gusts are also possible over parts of Maine and northern New York. ...Maine... In the wake of abating early day precipitation and cloud cover, isolated thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon across west/central Maine within a narrow zone of modest destabilization near the eastward-moving front. While overall buoyancy will be modest, sufficient heating/boundary layer mixing in conjunction with moderately strong low/mid-level westerlies could yield some stronger wind gusts related to thunderstorms. ...Northern New York... While boundary-layer mixing will continue to occur within the warming post-frontal environment, sufficient residual low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -16C at 500 mb) will support modest destabilization and minimal inhibition by mid-afternoon. Some stronger low-topped storms may develop over the region and/or spread east-southeastward out of Ontario. While not overly hot, sufficient boundary-layer mixing and semi-strong westerlies could yield some strong/locally severe storms with wind gusts, until around sunset. ...Central Plains... To the east of ongoing early day storms, additional thunderstorm development through late this afternoon/early evening is expected across Nebraska and northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. This should semi-focus along a weak surface low and southwest/northeast-oriented boundary. Hot temperatures and deeply mixed boundary layers will be supportive of some stronger downdrafts amid modest-strength wind profiles. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with the multicells/clusters of storms that develop and spread southeastward late this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 08/31/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest for today as winds increase in response to a weak upper disturbance moving into the region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave approaching the northern CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast through the day, and will foster increasing mid-level flow and thunderstorm chances over the region. ...Northern Great Basin and Columbia Gorge... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR and through the Columbia Gorge. 00 UTC soundings along the West Coast sampled increasing mid/upper-level winds associated with the approaching upper wave. Such winds will overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through the day and support sustained surface winds between 15-20 mph. Deep boundary-layer mixing will foster frequent gusts between 25-35 mph, especially near terrain features. The driest conditions are expected across northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR with afternoon RH minimums in the teens likely. To the north through the Columbia Gorge, better overnight RH recovery is noted, and some moisture advection through the Gorge will moderate RH reductions to some degree. However, minimum RH values in the low to mid 20s appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance, and should support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Dry thunderstorms... The 00 UTC BOI sounding sampled modest mid-level moisture, which is noted in water-vapor imagery advecting northward ahead of the approaching wave. This moisture should support 150-300 J/KG MUCAPE by late afternoon across northern WA into northern ID/northwest MT. Forecast soundings depict a deep, dry boundary layer over this region with PWAT values near 0.7 inch, which favors dry thunderstorms. Given the dry fuel status across the area (ERCs generally above the 90th percentile), a dry-lightning threat appears likely with any thunderstorm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A field of sunflowers wilted and wound down earlier than expected in Rehoboth. The farm intended to allow pick-your own into September, but had to end the season early. The Sun Chronicle (Attleboro, Mass.), Aug. 9, 2022

Grass in Massachusetts was not growing during the intense summer drought, so lawn mowing businesses had fewer lawns to mow. A North Attleboro landscaper had about a third of customers cancel their mowing. A Milford landscaper downsize his workforce from 14 to about a half dozen. Another North Attleboro business reported that lawn mowing was down 35% to 40%. The Sun Chronicle (Attleboro, Mass.), Aug. 9, 2022

As drought intensified in parts of New Hampshire, wells have been running dry, and wildfire activity has climbed. The usual summer reprieve from fires when trees are green did not happen this year, per the chief of the New Hampshire Forest Protection Bureau. Fire activity has been most intense in the southern part of the state where drought is worst. Some of the fires have burned a foot down into the soil and take a long time to extinguish. Finding water sources for firefighting has been more challenging, too. Streams and rivers were drying up in the Connecticut River Valley. New Hampshire Bulletin (Concord), Aug 25, 2022

Extreme drought has left Massachusetts wildlife searching for water nearer to people's homes and noticing the swimming pools. Moose, in particular, have been reported at the edge of pools. Moose and deer have been grazing on residential plants. Because drought reduced the berry crop, bears have been searching for food in residential areas and helping themselves to bird feeders and chicken coops. Adding to challenges that farmers have faced this summer, wildlife have eaten some of the crops. Lowell Sun (Mass.), Aug. 29, 2022

Drought has meant fewer mosquitoes in western Massachusetts. July did not bring any rain, so there was no standing water for them to reproduce. Western Mass News (Springfield, Mass.), Aug 30, 2022

The soybeans in south central Kansas did not produce many pods. If rain falls in the next few weeks, yields may be about 25% of normal. Corn was harvested three weeks early by one farmer who reported yields of 50% of normal. Most area farmers have turned their corn or soybeans into cattle feed. Rain is needed to improve soil moisture ahead of this fall’s wheat planting. KAKE-TV ABC 10 Wichita (Kan.), Aug 29, 2022

The Norwich Public Utilities issued a water supply warning and requested that residential and commercial water users curb water use by 10% until conditions improve. The city’s two reservoirs were at a combined 72.43% of their capacity and were estimated to be below 70% by the end of the week. This amounts to about a 228-day supply of water for its 11,000 customers. “With the ongoing drought in the region and no significant rain in the immediate weather forecast, we are approaching a serious water supply situation,” NPU General Manager said in a news release announcing the warning. New London Day (Ct.), Aug 30, 2022

A farm in Mystic used irrigation from a pond to water crops for 33 consecutive days. The ears on unirrigated corn were much smaller. FOX 61 (Hartford, Ct.), Aug 29, 2022

Parts of Austin have had an increase in the rat population, due to a combination of new construction, drought and the COVID-19 pandemic. As restaurants closed, rats sought food in neighborhoods, where exterminators have seen an uptick in infestations. KVUE (Austin, Texas), Aug 30, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 30 17:57:01 UTC 2022.