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The fire danger is rising in New Jersey, due to the hot, dry weather. Leaves were also falling prematurely from trees and would not normally fall until mid to late October. The dry conditions and newly fallen leaves could combine to elevate the fire danger quickly. Over the past week, there were 81 fires statewide, about 40% more than normal for this time of year. New Jersey 101.5 (Ewing, N.J.), Aug. 29, 2022

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLI TO 25 NE MLI TO 45 ENE MLI TO 35 WNW MMO TO 30 NNW MMO TO 30 SSE RFD TO 25 E JVL. ..JEWELL..08/29/22 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-111-123-131-143-155-161-175-187-195-197-203-291840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL MERCER PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD INC007-073-089-111-127-291840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER Read more

WW 527 SEVERE TSTM IA IL LM 291510Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Iowa Northern Illinois Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1010 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Developing storms near the Mississippi River are expected to growth into a larger cluster through late morning into the afternoon, with an increase in the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail across northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from Moline IL to 65 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

 THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

Sunderland enacted a lawn watering ban as the aquifer level continued to drop. The ban extends through Nov. 1. Amherst Bulletin (Mass.), Aug. 29, 2022

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Areas affected...Northern OK...Far Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291708Z - 291915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass is in place over the region, with recent surface observations sampling dewpoints in the low 70s and recent mesoanalysis estimated precipitable water around 1.9" to 2.0". Thermodynamic profiles are relatively warm, but these moist conditions amid surface temperatures already in the upper 80s to low 90s still result in moderate buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000-2500 J/kg across the region. Large-scale forcing for ascent is nebulous, with much of it focused well north of the region. Even so, low-level convergence along the numerous outflow boundaries has already promoted a few storms, and that trend is expected to continue this afternoon. A few updrafts may be strong enough to produce hail, but the primary severe risk will be damaging wind gusts associated with wet downbursts. Sporadic/isolated nature of the severe risk is expected to preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 08/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36199946 36799783 37529529 37449398 36269452 35229826 36199946 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional wind damage Tuesday afternoon and early evening across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... An elongated upper trough should extend from central Canada southward over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley regions Tuesday morning. This upper trough is forecast to move eastward across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Heating of a moist low-level airmass should occur ahead of a cold front that is likewise expected to sweep eastward over these regions. However, persistent cloudiness and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the degree of instability that develops Tuesday afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE stays generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The stronger mid-level southwesterly winds attendant to the upper trough should tend to lag the surface warm sector to some extent. But, around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should still be present across much of the warm sector Tuesday afternoon. This shear will aid in modest updraft organization, with multicells and loosely organized clusters expected to be the dominant convective mode. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main severe threat with this activity as it spreads eastward across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through early Tuesday evening, before eventually weakening. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across these regions based on latest model trends, with the southern extent of appreciable severe risk remaining uncertain. There was not enough confidence in a more focused area of damaging wind potential to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2022 Read more

Drought stunted corn growth in Connecticut, and ears have stopped growing. Some corn growers were unsure of whether to bother with harvesting as yields were down 25% to 75%. Local farmers anticipate that the cost of feeding cattle will climb as they will need to purchase dry hay as replacement feed. Corn was being harvested weeks earlier than usual rather than waiting and losing nutritional value. Farmers were looking for feed alternatives. Hay fields that often allow three cuttings have stopped growing, so farmers may only get two cuttings this year, if that. Waterbury Republican-American (Ct.), Aug. 27, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes Region as an upper ridge builds across the western CONUS today, with weak mid-level impulses expected to pivot around the upper ridge. Deep-layer northwesterly dry flow will envelop the Plains states behind the cold front. At the surface, near-Elevated to Elevated dry and windy conditions are forecast, particularly over South Dakota. However, recent rainfall has dampened fuel receptiveness to a degree, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Grass-fed cattle near Portsmouth were instead eating hay because dry conditions kept the pasture from growing back. Hay being grown for winter feed was yielding about half of normal. A Christmas tree grower urged people to tag their tree early or they may not get a tree this year because supplies may be limited this year as drought was killing mature trees. Onions for sale from a local grower were smaller because they did not receive enough water while growing. Perennial crops like raspberry canes were stunted, the effects of which will be apparent next year. Hot conditions this summer have also affected the seafood industry. Clams purchased from various local diggers have died at an abnormally high rate in the past few weeks. The clams die in the refrigerator two days after harvest. While prices are higher at the farmers market, high costs of chicken feed and gas were blamed. The Newport Daily News (R.I.), Aug 29, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IL TO NORTHWESTERN IN AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds are expected through this evening across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley into the southern Lake Michigan region. ...Northeast MO across IL to Lower MI through late evening... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with some modest amplification expected from IA to IL as an embedded mid-upper speed max digs southeastward from the northern Plains. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward/southeastward from IA/WI to MO/IL/Lower MI by tonight. Convective clusters are ongoing this morning across northwest IL, apparently in conjunction with an undular bore ahead of the surface cold front. Given an environment with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates at or above 8 C/km, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and 35-45 kt midlevel flow, the ongoing storms should eventually produce a stronger cold pool and there will be and attendant increase in the threat for damaging winds by early afternoon. The ongoing convection will modulate the severe threat area later this afternoon, with potential stabilization across northern IL in the wake of the storms, and outflow to focus the threat a bit farther south by mid-late afternoon. Additional storms that form this afternoon along the front/outflow will have the potential to produce occasional damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail from northeast MO across central IL into northern IN and southern Lower MI. ...West TX to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A few thunderstorm clusters are ongoing from northern OK to southern IL and northern OH in association with subtle midlevel vorticity maxima and within a moisture plume with PW > 1.75 inches. Mid-upper flow weakens with southward and westward extent, but precipitation loading within multicell clusters will support the potential for isolated wind damage this afternoon. Additional storms will likely form along the surface cold front in KS, and in the area of strong surface heating east of a subtle midlevel trough over northeast NM. Relatively deep mixing and moderate-strong buoyancy will support downburst potential this afternoon/evening from west TX into KS. ..Thompson/Mosier.. 08/29/2022 Read more

GARCEAU FIRE UPDATELocation: 10 air miles west of Polson, Montana.Estimated Size: 6,724 acres Containment: 85% Personnel: 120 Incident Command: Transitioned to a Type 4 organization, Justin Underwood, Incident Commander  The cause of the fire was from an electric fence. Evacuations and Closures: There are no evacuations and there are no structures threatened at this time. Please be aware of fire traffic when in the Windy Gap area, a lot of fire traffic will be on these roads. Activity: Crews will continue to secure perimeter and grid for hot spots on both

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 28 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. A weak shortwave trough is expected to lift northward into northern California and southern Oregon Monday afternoon though early Tuesday morning. Thermodynamic profiles are marginally supportive of elevated thunderstorms, but mid-level moisture will be limited enough to keep coverage very isolated. ..Wendt.. 08/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region, promoting widespread strong northwesterly mid-level flow across the northwest and north-central CONUS Day 2/Monday. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer in the post-cold-frontal environment beneath the strong northwesterly flow across the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains states, dry and breezy surface conditions are expected. However, RH is not expected to reach Elevated/Critical criterion on a widespread basis, and fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread is expected to be modest at best, warranting the withholding of fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...FAR EASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northern IL...southern WI...far eastern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281734Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing early this afternoon across far eastern IA into western IL, in advance of a well-defined MCV centered near southeast IA. MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2000 J/kg range across the region, with some additional destabilization possible through the afternoon, given the relative lack of cloudiness downstream of the developing storms. The 17Z DVN sounding and recent VWPs from KDVN indicate increasing flow through a deep layer in association with the MCV, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm development, including the potential for a couple of supercells as storms mature this afternoon. Favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy and modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear will be sufficient for some tornado threat with any sustained supercells. The strongest cells/clusters will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream of the MCV. Rather weak midlevel lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will temper the hail threat to some extent, though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any supercell development. Watch issuance is possible by 18-19Z. ..Dean/Thompson.. 08/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42199051 42589042 42968995 43218914 43148893 42758848 42298839 41678847 41318864 40998892 40728950 40728999 41389035 42199051 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should occur Monday across parts of the Great Lakes into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and central Plains. Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat, with some hail also possible. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Central Plains... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and mid MS Valley on Monday. At the surface, the primary low is forecast to develop eastward across central/eastern Canada through the period, with a trailing cold front expected to sweep east-southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The stronger mid-level winds associated with the upper trough are forecast to lag behind the cold front to some extent. Even so, upper 60s to at least low 70s surface dewpoints should be in place ahead of the front. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability arcing from parts of Lower MI into the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and KS by Monday afternoon. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates should also be present across parts of KS/MO into IL, and locally very strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg, may develop in a narrow corridor across these regions along and just ahead of the cold front. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution across the Great Lakes into the Midwest and OH Valley Monday afternoon and evening. The potential for a decaying cluster of thunderstorms related to overnight convection across the Upper Midwest remains apparent in some guidance. If this cluster can maintain itself through the morning, it may shunt greater instability and thunderstorm potential farther south ahead of the front into the OH and mid MS Valleys. Even though these regions will generally be on the southeastern extent of appreciable mid-level flow, loosely organized clusters of convection may still be capable of producing isolated damaging winds as low-level lapse rates become steepened. Have expanded the Marginal Risk to account for this potential. Otherwise, it appears probable that more robust/organized thunderstorms will form along/near the cold front by Monday afternoon. The best combination of strong forecast instability and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear should occur across parts of the Midwest into Lower MI. 15% severe wind probabilities have been introduced across this area where the greatest concentration of thunderstorm clusters may occur based on some convection-allowing guidance. Given the potential for morning convection, some adjustments to the Slight Risk may be needed as mesoscale details and model/convective trends dictate. ..Gleason.. 08/28/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur just ahead of a cold front in southern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Based on the current position of the front, the elevated area has been adjusted. RH is not likely to fall below critical thresholds for very long within the terrain along the Idaho/Wyoming border. Highlights have been removed from those areas. Locally critical conditions are most likely, for brief periods, within the Snake River Plain and in the lee of the Laramie Range. ..Wendt.. 08/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, promoting downslope flow along the higher terrain of the central/northern Rockies amid a dry boundary layer. In the Plains states, strong surface lee troughing will occur, with a surface cold front poised to sweep across the central and northern High Plains. The net result will be widespread coverage of either dry or windy conditions across much of the north-central CONUS in the post-cold-frontal environment. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that both dry and windy surface conditions will overlap within a narrow corridor from the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho to the Nebraska Sandhills, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MN/WESTERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEASTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should affect much of Minnesota into western Wisconsin late this afternoon into early tonight, with large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Damaging winds may also occur this afternoon from northern Illinois into southeastern Wisconsin. ...MN and vicinity this afternoon into early tonight... A well-defined midlevel trough will move eastward from western ND as of mid morning to northwestern MN tonight, and will be preceded by a weakening MCV moving from eastern ND to northwestern MN today. The primary associated surface cyclone will progress eastward across SK/MB, as a trailing cold front/trough likewise moves eastward across the Dakotas to the MN border by this evening. Ahead of the front/trough, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km sampled in 12z soundings will act to cap a gradually moistening boundary layer (mid-upper 60s dewpoints northern MN to low 70s across southern MN by afternoon), and will allow MLCAPE to increase to near 3000 J/kg. Stratus under the cap and lingering convection in southeastern ND will tend to slow surface heating, but ascent along the boundary will support weakening of convective inhibition and thunderstorm development 21-23z across west central and northwest MN. Storms will then spread eastward through late evening and develop southward toward central MN, with greater uncertainty regarding storm coverage with southward extent into IA/eastern NE this evening. Mixed convective modes are expected along and ahead of the surface front/trough, with a few semi-discrete cells initially, and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments expected by this evening. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells as hodographs lengthen and clockwise curvature increases some in the low levels, as reflected by effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt and effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. The steep midlevel lapse rates/large CAPE and sufficiently long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inch diameter) with the more discrete supercells initially, and the threat will transition more to damaging winds of 60-70 mph with upscale growth of convection. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with the initial supercells, and with embedded circulations in line segments. ...Northern IL/southeastern WI this afternoon/evening... An MCV will continue to move northeastward from southeastern IA toward southeastern WI through this evening. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the MCV will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg), and thunderstorm development will be possible by early-mid afternoon near the MS River. A mix of clusters and embedded rotating storms will be possible given modest enhancement of low-level shear ahead of the MCV (effective SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2), with the attendant threat of isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two. ..Thompson/Dean.. 08/28/2022 Read more

A Delaware gardener described the first layer of soil as being hard like cement when trying to plant shrubs amid a drought. A grape grower noted that the unusually dry August makes for a good vintage. WBOC-TV 16 Salisbury (Md.), Aug 25, 2022