Aggregator

The Elmo Fire was detected along Highway 28 on July 29, 2022, at approximately 4:30 PM. Although local Volunteer Fire Departments and Missoula Smokejumpers responded quickly, the fire grew significantly in the first few hours, prompting the initial evacuation of residences. The Northern Rockies Team 7 Type 2 Incident Management Team took over management of the Elmo Fire at 6 AM on Sunday, July 31, 2022.  Persistent fire weather (high temperatures and strong winds) pushed the fire north and east, requiring the need for further evacuations. Eight total structures were lost, including four primary residences. Over the last week, cooler temperatures and reduction in winds enabled firefighters to make consistent gains in containment. Northern Rockies Team 7 will transfer command of the fires to a Type 3 Incident Management Team lead by Incident Commander Ian Morgan at 6 AM on Sunday, August 14,

Redhorn Fire UpdateLocation: 7 air miles northeast of St. Ignatius, Montana in Tribal Mission Mountain Wilderness within the Grizzly Bear Management Zone.     Estimated Size: 520 acresContainment: 5%Personnel: 10Incident Command: Local Type 3 organization, Art TrahanEvacuations and Closures: There are no evacuations at this time.  McDonald Lake is open for Day Use only. No overnight camping will be allowed. The grizzly bear management zone is still closed to recreation from July 15 to October 1 yearly. No structures are threatened.Current and Planned Activity: Aviation will be used where needed throughout the

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 18 18:01:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 18 18:01:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Occasional hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. Sporadic strong gusts also may accompany thunderstorms across parts of Georgia and South Carolina Friday afternoon. ...KS/MO/IA... A mid/upper level low/trough will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest on Friday. 25-40 kt mid/upper level northwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest. At the surface, weak low pressure will meander east/southeast across the southern MN/IA vicinity. A cold front will extend southwest from the low and slowly shift east across the central Plains to the lower MO Valley. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front as afternoon temperatures climb into the 80s. Midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km above the modest boundary-layer moisture will contribute to moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support some organized multicell clusters and transient supercells. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells during the afternoon and evening. ...GA/SC... Deep-layer flow will remain modest across the region, on the southern periphery of the eastern U.S. upper trough. However, some weak speed shear and 25-35 kt midlevel flow will result in marginal effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. This may support some transient/briefly organized multicell clusters in the vicinity of a weak surface low and stationary front draped across central GA into SC. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but surface dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, generally less than 10-15 kt through 1 km. However, steepening low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of sporadic strong gusts and wind damage through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 08/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...Northwest Dry Thunder... Early morning observations show widespread clouds and stratiform precipitation ongoing across portions of central/southern OR, and extending north into the WA Cascades. This cloud cover appears likely to limit solar heating and subsequent destabilization across portions of the eastern Cascades this afternoon. Hi-res model guidance is in good agreement showing very limited buoyancy and strong capping. Thus, the IsoDryT has been removed this area. Farther west, marine influence was noted across the windward slopes of the OR Cascades. While some heating is likely, the stable marine layer suggests storm coverage will be very isolated and tied to local orographic effects. While some risk for isolated dry lightning strikes remains, the highest confidence in afternoon storms has shifted to portions of the northern Great Basin and southwestern ID. Here, clearing and warming will support the greatest potential for dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning in dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the Plains states eastward while weak upper ridging persists across the Interior West today. A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to pivot around the upper ridge and lift a monsoonal airmass, promoting high-based thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest by afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added to account for the potential of several strikes occurring away from storm cores into dry fuel beds. Otherwise, locally Elevated conditions may accompany the post-cold frontal environment across the central Plains, supporting localized potential for fire growth wherever dry/occasionally breezy conditions overlap with patchy dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On the afternoon of August 1, 2022, numerous air and ground resources responded to the Beech Creek fire on the Blue Mountain Ranger District of the Malheur National Forest. The fire is located nine miles south of Long Creek, OR and is burning on both sides of Highway 395. The High Desert Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire on August 2, 2022. There are no evacuations in place. Travelers are encouraged to check road conditions for up to date information on closures or delays prior to traveling in the area.Malheur National Forest Facebook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO THE MID-MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and localized severe wind gusts are most likely from south-central Nebraska to the Mid-Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...KS/NE to southwest MN... A shortwave trough will gradually amplify as it drifts southeast across the Upper Midwest through tonight. An initially weak surface cyclone over the Upper Red River Valley will deepen as it slowly moves east across northern MN. Trailing cold front to its southwest will sharpen towards late afternoon across the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will be relatively modest by mid-August standards, but a confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding should support a narrow corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies will overspread much of the Great Plains to the west and southwest of the shortwave trough. This will strengthen deep-layer shear, mainly across the central Great Plains portion of the front, yielding elongation of the hodograph atop weak low-level SRH. This should support potential for a few discrete supercells with mid-level rotation centered on the IA/NE/SD border area southwest into south-central NE. Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts should be the primary hazards before convection wanes rapidly after dusk. With northeast extent into MN, slower-moving storms and more prominent multicell clustering should serve to marginalize wind/hail intensities. ...Central TX to southern LA and north FL to southeast GA... While deep-layer shear will be lacking to the south of a convectively reinforced surface front, very rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by observed PW values around 2 inches will support a threat for localized wet microbursts, peaking in the late afternoon. Extensive pulse to weakly organized multicells are anticipated before convection decays this evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 08/18/2022 Read more

Some West Texas ranchers were short on water for their goats and sheep. As a result, ranchers have to sell livestock or anticipate less wool production next year. Hay and grain production is down, and feed prices are up. Pastures were not growing. Since the start of the year, the price of wool has risen 4.57%. The increased demand for cotton with the lower production catapulted cotton to an 11-year high in early May. KXVA/KIDY-TV (San Angelo, Texas), Aug 15, 2022

Maui County pastures and vegetation in general remained in extremely poor condition along the lower leeward slopes. Ranchers in these areas sold portions of their herds months ago. Feral deer continue to compete with livestock for forage and consume produce. Maui News (Wailuku, Hawaii), Aug. 16, 2022

024
ABPZ20 KNHC 171721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday over parts of central/eastern Texas into the Southeast, and portions of the central Plains. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. ...Central Plains... Moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow will be in position across the central/northern Plains on the western periphery of the eastern US upper trough. A shortwave perturbation is forecast to develop southward from the Canadian Prairies into the Plains during the forecast period. At the surface, modest boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of a south/southeastward-advancing cold front. A lack of better quality moisture will limit instability some, but heating into the 80s and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt will support at least transient supercells and organized clusters by afternoon along/ahead of the front. Strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells through early evening. ...Central TX through the Southeast... A reservoir of rich boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of the west to east oriented surface front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and areas of strong heating will result in moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg likely. PW values also will be quite high, nearing 2 inches. Vertical shear will remain weak, with mostly unidirectional/westerly deep-layer flow over the region. This combination of strong instability and weak shear in the presence of a surface boundary will mainly support initially intense updrafts with limited organization. As a result, the main severe threat with thunderstorm clusters through the afternoon will be limited to damaging gusts in water loaded downdrafts. ..Leitman.. 08/17/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 17 17:21:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 17 17:21:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No significant changes have been made to the current outlook. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and continue through this evening across portions of the Northwest. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail across the western CONUS today as mid-level troughing gradually amplifies across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, with a relatively pronounced impulse traversing the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Deep-layer ascent across portions of the Pacific Northwest will lift a monsoonal airmass atop a dry boundary layer, encouraging high-based thunderstorm development by early evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added to portions of northern California into southern Oregon and extreme northwest Nevada given the confidence in dry thunderstorms occurring atop very dry fuels. Otherwise, locally Elevated dry/windy surface conditions may accompany the passage of a cold front across portions of Montana and the northern High Plains through the day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTH FL...SOUTHERN AZ...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening from east Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley to north Florida, southern Arizona, and the western Dakotas. ...Lower MS Valley to north FL this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV will move east-southeastward from AR to MS/AL this afternoon, roughly along and just north of an outflow-reinforced front from the AR/LA border across central MS to southern AL. Strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 70s will boost MLCAPE to near 3000 J/kg this afternoon along and south of the front/outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon. The surface boundaries that will focus storm initiation will lie along the southwest fringe of the 20-30 kt midlevel flow, which will support multicell clusters. Precipitation loading with the strong buoyancy, in combination with DCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, will support isolated wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, isolated strong storms will also be possible across north FL, primarily with sea breeze and outflow interactions. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... To the west of a remnant tropical low over northern Mexico, midlevel east-northeast flow will strengthen some through this evening over southern AZ. This will favor convective clusters moving southwestward from the higher terrain to the lower deserts, where strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to moderate buoyancy and weakening convective inhibition. Typical steep low-level lapse rates and substantial precipitation loading will favor hybrid microbursts capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow winds. ...Western Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Some convection is ongoing late this morning over the northern High Plains, in advance of a weak midlevel trough moving over northeast MT. The convection is expected to increase some later this afternoon as it encounters a deeper mixed boundary layer, when there will be the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 08/17/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX TO THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may become severe this afternoon from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast states, with locally damaging wind gusts possible. ...East Texas/Arklatex to Gulf Coast/northern Florida... Storms are ongoing this morning near and north of the front from Arkansas into northern Mississippi/central Alabama, with lift enhanced by modest warm advection from the west at 850 mb. Strong heating near/south of the front will result in a transition to surface-based storms into this afternoon. It appears that the composite front/outflow boundary will continually undercut the developing storms, and it is unclear how quickly new cells will regenerate for propagation. Regardless, at least isolated strong to severe gusts appear likely given afternoon-maximized steep low-level lapse rates and the expected storm aggregation. Small areas of storms may persist this evening, but any wind threat is expected to diminish after sunset. ...Western Dakota and far eastern Montana/northeast Wyoming... A few stronger storms may materialize this afternoon/early evening near a front/pre-frontal trough. Some thunderstorm-related strong/gusty winds could occur, but severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given the relatively modest buoyancy by summertime standards. ...Southern Arizona... A west/northwestward-moving mid-level impulse and heating over the higher terrain will contribute to diurnally maximized thunderstorm development, some of which may propagate to the desert floor aided by a modest strengthening of mid-level easterlies. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of wind-related probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/17/2022 Read more

A Vermont farmer with an organic beef farm in Sudbury noted that his pasture was not growing, which causes him stress because he has 600 to 700 cattle to graze. The yield and quality of hay grown in Vermont is poor, meaning that there will not be as much for cows this winter. Near Exeter, Rhode Island, the soil is powder dry one foot down, according to a hay farmer. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 16, 2022

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced that the Colorado River Basin would enter a Tier 2 shortage, which will require cuts in water to Arizona of 21%, Nevada, 8% and the country of Mexico by 7%. The country’s two largest reservoirs held about a quarter of their capacity and were continuing to drop lower, which could threaten to disrupt drinking water supplies and hydropower production. In June, Colorado River Basin states were told to devise a way to use 2 to 4 million acre-feet less water, otherwise the federal government would decide the cuts for the states. The deadline for delivering the plan was Aug. 15, which came and went without a solution. The Washington Post (D.C.), Aug. 16, 2022