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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 14:36:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 15:22:38 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 011436 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses. Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36 hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate within 3 to 4 days. Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly left of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 7 36(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 25N 125W 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 ...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.6W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.6 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday night. A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of Frank was located near 22.4, -122.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 011435 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 14:33:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 15:28:34 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Georgette continues to be characterized by pulsating and somewhat disorganized deep convection near it's center of circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from T-1.0 to T-2.5, and a blend of these values suggests that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is beginning its turn toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is north-northwest at 3 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue for a couple of days. The ridge is forecast to strengthen by late this week, which should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in forward speed. Overall, the track model guidance has become a little more clustered than previous cycles, and there has been a slight shift to the right in the guidance through 72 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a little right of the previous one through that time period, but remains a little to the left of the consensus. Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. By 60 h, the cyclone should move over waters of 25-26 degrees C. These conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause it to degenerate into a remnant low toward the latter part of the week. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 16(18) 9(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 ...GEORGETTE NOW HEADING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 130.4W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected starting tonight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...GEORGETTE NOW HEADING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of Georgette was located near 13.4, -130.4 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are expected mainly across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley including Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky... Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for parts of the region, including portions of Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected into Monday afternoon especially across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley, northward across eastern Indiana and western/central Ohio. This will be near/ahead of a southeastward-advancing front, and to the south-southwest of possible residual overnight convection and cloud cover that may be located over Michigan/northern Indiana vicinity Monday morning. An amplifying belt of moderately strong westerlies (30-50 kt at 500 mb) will influence forcing for ascent and probable storm development/longevity Monday afternoon and evening. This could potentially include some supercells aside from more prevalent multicells and southeastward-moving bands/linear segments. Wind damage will be the primary risk overall. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An initially southward-settling front will decelerate/stall and begin to return northward late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Moderately strong northwesterly winds will overlie the front. The potential for deep convective development should remain limited south of the front owing to strong capping, however isolated storm development may occur late Monday afternoon and night near/north of the boundary, particularly across portions of Nebraska where a near-boundary zone of moderate to strong destabilization should be maximized across much of central Nebraska to southeast Nebraska. Where storms do form, a few supercells could occur, along with the potential for storm organization and upscale growth near/northeast of the boundary. Large hail and damaging winds may occur, with damaging winds a viable possibility on the cool side of the front owing to the steep lapse rate environment/dry air above the more stable boundary layer. Portions of central and possibly east-central/northeast Nebraska could ultimately warrant an upgrade to a Slight Risk pending higher confidence in convective initiation/deep convective development within an otherwise severe-favorable environment. ...North Dakota... The main thunderstorm potential should be relegated to the morning and/or activity potentially crossing the international border later in the day near/north-northeast of a front across the region. A few strong to severe storms could occur given the strong wind profiles and moderate surface-based buoyancy near the front and elevated buoyancy to its east-northeast. ..Guyer.. 07/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are expected mainly across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley including Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky... Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for parts of the region, including portions of Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected into Monday afternoon especially across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley, northward across eastern Indiana and western/central Ohio. This will be near/ahead of a southeastward-advancing front, and to the south-southwest of possible residual overnight convection and cloud cover that may be located over Michigan/northern Indiana vicinity Monday morning. An amplifying belt of moderately strong westerlies (30-50 kt at 500 mb) will influence forcing for ascent and probable storm development/longevity Monday afternoon and evening. This could potentially include some supercells aside from more prevalent multicells and southeastward-moving bands/linear segments. Wind damage will be the primary risk overall. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An initially southward-settling front will decelerate/stall and begin to return northward late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Moderately strong northwesterly winds will overlie the front. The potential for deep convective development should remain limited south of the front owing to strong capping, however isolated storm development may occur late Monday afternoon and night near/north of the boundary, particularly across portions of Nebraska where a near-boundary zone of moderate to strong destabilization should be maximized across much of central Nebraska to southeast Nebraska. Where storms do form, a few supercells could occur, along with the potential for storm organization and upscale growth near/northeast of the boundary. Large hail and damaging winds may occur, with damaging winds a viable possibility on the cool side of the front owing to the steep lapse rate environment/dry air above the more stable boundary layer. Portions of central and possibly east-central/northeast Nebraska could ultimately warrant an upgrade to a Slight Risk pending higher confidence in convective initiation/deep convective development within an otherwise severe-favorable environment. ...North Dakota... The main thunderstorm potential should be relegated to the morning and/or activity potentially crossing the international border later in the day near/north-northeast of a front across the region. A few strong to severe storms could occur given the strong wind profiles and moderate surface-based buoyancy near the front and elevated buoyancy to its east-northeast. ..Guyer.. 07/31/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 31 17:50:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311705
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located well over a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EAST NC...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Areas affected...Central/East NC...Far South-Central/Southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311638Z - 311915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multicell thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will persist across the region through the afternoon. Additionally, a supercell or two is possible later this afternoon, with an attendant risk of damaging wind gust and/or a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...The air mass across north-central/northeast NC and adjacent portions of far south-central/southeast VA has quickly destabilized amid filtered diurnal heating and ample low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours, as modest low-level convergence persists near and south of the wavy warm front extending from south-central VA into far northeast NC. Much of this thunderstorm activity will occur south of the stronger mid-level flow, limiting the deep-layer vertical shear and likely leading to a predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode. Primary severe risk with any of these storms is water-loaded downbursts. Later this afternoon, ascent may be augmented slightly by the shortwave trough moving through the Upper OH Valley. This shortwave will also contribute to a modest increase in the mid-level flow. While still favorable mostly multicells, these condition could also support a supercell or two. Primary risk would continue to be damaging wind gust, although a brief tornado or two could also occur. ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 34637776 35357923 35767997 36437998 36927923 36867767 36677674 36367582 35607564 34697624 34637776 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing IsoDryT delineation, primarily to trim the western edge where fuels are not as favorable. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.S. today while a mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states during the afternoon. Downslope flow along the higher terrain in western Montana and modest surface lee troughing across the northern Plains may support at least locally dry and windy conditions for a few hours. The bigger concern for wildfire-spread potential today exists across the Pacific Northwest. Modest deep-layer ascent with passing subtle mid-level impulses will work in tandem with afternoon peak heating to support the initiation of scattered high-based thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest, where fuels have recently become highly receptive to fire spread (based on the latest observations). The previous day's storms may have slightly dampened fuels locally. However, the relatively higher number of thunderstorm expected today, combined with the critically dry fuels (especially in lower-terrain areas) necessitates the addition of scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing IsoDryT delineation, primarily to trim the western edge where fuels are not as favorable. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.S. today while a mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states during the afternoon. Downslope flow along the higher terrain in western Montana and modest surface lee troughing across the northern Plains may support at least locally dry and windy conditions for a few hours. The bigger concern for wildfire-spread potential today exists across the Pacific Northwest. Modest deep-layer ascent with passing subtle mid-level impulses will work in tandem with afternoon peak heating to support the initiation of scattered high-based thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest, where fuels have recently become highly receptive to fire spread (based on the latest observations). The previous day's storms may have slightly dampened fuels locally. However, the relatively higher number of thunderstorm expected today, combined with the critically dry fuels (especially in lower-terrain areas) necessitates the addition of scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are most likely across a portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley between about 5 to 9 PM CDT. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough centered on the MB/ND border area will progress east-southeast into the western Great Lakes region tonight. Associated surface cold front over the eastern Dakotas will similarly push east-southeast across the Upper MS Valley through this evening. ...Upper MS Valley... Low-level warm-advection-driven convection is ongoing across south-central MN to northwest IA, but decaying ahead of the cold front. Stronger surface heating and greater boundary-layer moisture in the wake of this activity will support a confined plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg by 21-00Z. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected along the northern periphery of the buoyancy gradient in northwest to north-central MN. Convection will likely build south along the front through central to east-central MN during the early evening, with lower confidence in southern extent towards the IA border. Surface temperature-dew point spreads will be marginally large initially, but favorable low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be sufficient for a threat of a tornado or two. Otherwise, around 30-35 kt effective bulk shear should yield a mixed cluster/embedded supercell mode, with the latter tending to be favored farther south where shear is slightly stronger and convection should be more semi-discrete. Damaging winds should be somewhat more favored in terms of coverage, but isolated severe hail is anticipated as well. Convection will likely diminish tonight as it spreads east of the confined surface-based buoyancy plume deeper into WI. ...NE/IA... A conditional supercell threat will exist across portions of northern to western IA along the surface cold front centered on early evening, in the wake of decaying elevated activity approaching the region. Isolated thunderstorms are more probable into the southwest NE area where MLCIN will be minimal at peak heating, along the western extent of the central Great Plains buoyancy plume. Weaker deep-layer shear should tend to favor a more marginal intensity threat this far west. ...NC/southern VA... A weak and wavy surface warm front has drifted north into far southwest VA and northeast NC, in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the Upper OH Valley. The southern fringe of modestly stronger mid-level westerlies (represented by effective bulk shear near 30 kt) will overlie the baroclinic zone, where there will be some enhancement to low-level hodograph curvature (0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2). Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, a mix of multicell clusters and transient supercells are expected across the baroclinic zone through about dusk. A brief weak tornado and isolated damaging wind gusts in water-loaded downdrafts will be possible. ...Southern AZ... The next perturbation within the monsoonal moisture plume is aiding morning thunderstorms over a portion of northwest Sonora and will likely yield a period of mid-level drying across southeast AZ in its wake. The midlevel drying and reduction in clouds will aid surface heating, but also casts some doubt on how widespread convection will be across the higher terrain in southeast AZ this afternoon. 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level steering flow will support potential for isolated cells and small clusters to spread across the lower deserts of south-central AZ through about dusk with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Lower CO Valley to OR... Very isolated severe wind gusts are possible in pulse microbursts, but overall coverage is anticipated to be less than 5 percent over such a large swath around the Great Basin mid-level anticyclone. ..Grams/Lyons.. 07/31/2022 Read more