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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur from the Ozarks/Mid-South to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, as well as over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over western Quebec early Friday morning. This cyclone is expected to weaken throughout the period, devolving into an open wave while also becoming more progressive. By early Saturday morning, this upper trough will have moved into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate quickly through the base of this large cyclone/trough, moving from the Upper Midwest across the Upper and Lower Great Lakes regions and through the Northeast. Farther west, an upper ridge covering much of the West Coast will remain centered over northern CA, while subtropical ridging persists from the southern Plains through the Southeast. A frontal zone is expected to extend from east-central NM east-northeastward into the Upper OH Valley early Friday morning. Some modest southward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated as it is reinforced by a secondary surge of dry, continental across the air from the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley throughout the day. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid-South/TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic... Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will destabilize the air mass in the vicinity of the frontal zone draped across the region. Convergence along this boundary, augmented by modest large-scale forcing for ascent as well as localized areas of lift near any convectively enhanced vorticity maximums, should result in afternoon thunderstorm development. Much of this development should be south of the stronger mid-level flow, leading to an outflow-dominant multicellular mode. Some loosely organized bowing line segments are possible. The only exception is across central/northern VA and adjacent MD and DE. In this region, thunderstorms should be coincident with at least modest mid-level flow. This increased mid-level flow will correspond with increasing dewpoints/buoyancy, increasing the chance for organized storms capable of strong wind gusts. As a result, wind probabilities were increased to 15%. ...Southern High Plains... Overnight showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night into Friday morning will likely reinforce the frontal zone expected to extend from east-central NM through central OK. This showers and thunderstorms should also reduce mid-level lapse rates, increase cloudiness, and reduce overall buoyancy across areas north of the front. Strong diurnal heating is still anticipated south of the front, resulting in deep boundary layer mixing as well as air mass destabilization. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated over this region. High-based character of these storms coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will result in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. Adjustments to this risk area may be required in later outlook based on the position of the front. ..Mosier.. 07/28/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1606 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Areas affected...Central/eastern/northern NY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505... Valid 281717Z - 281915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505 continues. SUMMARY...An evolving cluster across central NY should continue to pose a threat for two-three west/east-oriented swaths of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Deepest updrafts are located on both the northern and southern flanks of an emerging cluster from the Finger Lakes to the Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of this activity as surface temperatures have broadly warmed through the upper 70s to mid 80s. The BUF VWP has consistently sampled 40-kt westerlies as low as 2-km AGL in the wake of the cluster, while strong mid/upper-level speed shear evident in TYX will foster organization potential, including a threat for small hail. With a 52 mph gust measured at 1635Z at the Penn Yan NY Mesonet site, expect a threat for 45-60 mph gusts within the deepest cells and small bowing segments as they spread towards eastern NY. ..Grams.. 07/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 45017483 44997404 44977353 44877321 44147320 42777385 42507436 42517531 42577611 42907648 44167602 44707552 45017483 Read more

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281700Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours, and may pose a damaging wind risk. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity trends over the past hour reveal a broad MCV moving eastward across central Missouri. Lift ahead of this feature is promoting increasing cloud cover over the region. However, breaks in the clouds across southeast MO to the lower-OH River Valley have allowed for some diurnal destabilization. Temperatures rising into the mid 80s, coupled with low 70s dewpoints, are fostering MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Further evidence of this trend is noted in visible imagery as shallow convective cumulus, as well as a few deeper towers with occasional lightning, continue to increase in coverage. Regional VWPs from western MO are sampling 30-40 knot winds in the 5-7 km layer in the vicinity of the MCV, which is supporting stronger deep-layer shear than reflected in recent mesoanalyses. Consequently, the combination of improving thermodynamics and adequate kinematics may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms intensifying ahead of the MCV or developing along a diffuse outflow boundary and/or the southward-moving cold front will likely consolidate into loosely organized clusters, though one or two semi-consolidated lines appear possible, as hinted by a few hi-res solutions. While damaging winds appear probable, confidence in the coverage of strong/severe convection remains limited given the marginal thermodynamic profiles and increasing cloud cover (which should act to slow further destabilization). ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37639263 38489260 38679191 38928986 38858847 38438782 37588774 36868805 36788938 36909072 37109203 37639263 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS, while a belt of modest midlevel northwesterly flow overspreads the northern Rockies. This large-scale pattern will result in elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of southeast OR, northern NV, and southwest ID -- where breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will overlap 10-15 percent minimum RH. In addition, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Rockies, and critically dry fuels over this area will support isolated lightning-induced ignitions away from any precipitation cores. An isolated storm or two will also be possible along the Cascades in northern CA into southern OR, though confidence in storm development is currently too low for highlights here. Farther north along/east of the Cascades in WA, breezy terrain-enhanced surface winds and 10-15 percent RH could lead to locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. However, these conditions should generally be confined to terrain-favored areas and appear too localized for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Occasional damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are expected across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. Isolated wind damage will also be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ozarks, and marginally severe wind/hail may occur near the Front Range in Colorado and across the High Plains. ...Northeast States... Initially isolated severe storms have already developed this morning across western New York, and this risk should further increase/develop eastward toward eastern New York and much of western New England this afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1604. A deep mid-level low over northern Ontario will continue generally eastward toward northwest Quebec through tonight, with a base-embedded mid/high-level speed max (50-60 kt at 500 mb) over the Great Lakes transitioning east-northeastward. A related cold front will also move eastward with further thunderstorm development expected along/ahead of the front in addition to near a prefrontal trough across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southeast New York vicinity. Mid-level lapse rates were observed to be weak in 12z observed upper-air data, but cloud breaks and a general prevalence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints will support upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as additional heating occurs. The aforementioned speed max and tendency for strengthening winds aloft will maintain long and relatively straight hodographs with 40-50 kt effective shear. This will yield the possibility of a few supercells aside from more prevalent clusters/linear segments, with damage as the most common hazard. The overall severe risk should tend to diminish this evening as storms encounter a narrower warm sector and more marginally unstable air mass across Maine. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ozarks this afternoon... Have adjusted severe wind probabilities a bit northward near the Midwest synoptic front where severe-adequate destabilization may occur. Farther south, widely scattered thunderstorms should also form in the zone of differential heating, and the strongest storms could produce isolated wind damage with downbursts. Wind profiles will be relatively weak in the low-mid levels along the southern periphery of the early clouds/convection from northern Arkansas/southern Missouri to western Tennessee. However, strong surface heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the clouds could support a few multicell storms/clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts near and just after peak heating. ...Eastern Colorado and central/southern High Plains... Outflow with overnight convection has moved southwestward to the Front Range in Colorado. Some clouds will linger across the eastern Plains of Colorado, and vertical shear will be weaker with less steep mid-level lapse rates compared to Wednesday afternoon. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F, pockets of surface heating, and low-level upslope flow should support the development of scattered thunderstorm clusters this afternoon near the Front Range. The strongest storms will pose a threat for marginally severe hail and isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/28/2022 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0505 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 505 SEVERE TSTM MA NY PA VT LE LO 281605Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Massachusetts Central and Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase through the afternoon, initially across central into eastern New York and possibly northeast Pennsylvania, before reaching western New England by late afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard regionally. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ithaca NY to 5 miles north of Lebanon NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Guyer Read more

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281538 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Corrected typo in first paragraph Georgette's structure on conventional satellite imagery remains distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in determining the center location on first-light visible, which appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A 1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60 hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3 days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one, attempting to the account for the possibility that the stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting these binary TC interactions. Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity diagnosed by SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could still import dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its current convective structure. After today, the majority of the guidance either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the latest intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual weakening is shown after that time. At 120 hours, Georgette is forecast to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or passes by to its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest agreement to the latest LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

 The Honey Creek fire remains at an estimated 353 acres and is now considered 100% contained. This will be the last update on this

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:46:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:28:33 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 230 FOPZ13 KNHC 281446 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 65 18(83) X(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 120W 50 20 18(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 120W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 118.7W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) but a turn to the west-southwest or southwest is anticipated today or tonight into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little additional strengthening is forecast today or tonight followed by little change in intensity through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 the center of Georgette was located near 15.8, -118.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:43:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 564 WTPZ42 KNHC 281440 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant. However, SSM/IS microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to the northeast of the main convective bands. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point. The new intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt, and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening. This part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies near the intensity consensus aids. Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just a little to the north after about 36 h. Thus, the new track forecast is nudged a little northward during that time. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 281439 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 1 12(13) 66(79) 7(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) 13(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) X(39) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 281438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 281438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 110.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 110.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected today, with a faster rate of strengthening forecast by tonight and Friday. Frank is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven