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...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.. ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 20 the center of Franklin was located near 14.6, -67.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 68.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 70.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 71.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 70.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.9N 67.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 67.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 821 WTPZ24 KNHC 202049 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 116.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 20:39:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 21:41:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Hilary made landfall over the northern Baja California Peninsula a few hours ago with maximum winds estimated to be around 55 kt. Since then the storm has continued to move north-northwestward with the center now nearing the California/Mexico border. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and satellite estimates. Surface observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds have spread into southern California and there have been a few reports of gusts around hurricane force. In addition, radar images show that bands of heavy rain have spread across portions of the southwestern United States and this will continue through early Monday. The storm is moving quickly to the north-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 345/20 kt. An even faster motion to the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. Little change was made to the previous track forecast. Continued weakening due to dry air, and land interaction is expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves over southern California through tonight. The strongest winds are expected to be to the east of the center and in areas of high terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next few hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well inland across the western United States. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) YUMA AZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TIJUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 ...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 116.1W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Punta Eugenia on the west coast and south of Bahia San Bautista on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Eugenia northward * Baja California peninsula east coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista northward * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located inland near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 116.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and the storm is expected to accelerate even more as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move across southern California in the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to continue, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves across southern California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) was reported at Sill Hill, California. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 72 mph (116 km/h) was reported at Hauser Mountain, California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected. Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding. Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday morning, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for this storm can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the evening in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight in the warning area in southern California. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today through early Monday. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far southwest Utah. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Hilary was located near 31.3, -116.1 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 Emily is feeling the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear with the low-level center fully exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate. The environment around Emily is expected to become increasingly hostile the next couple of days with shear increasing to near 40 kt while the system remains in relatively stable air. These unfavorable atmospheric conditions should cause steady weakening, and Emily could become a remnant low in a few of days. The storm is moving to the northwest at 8 kt, and a general west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. After that time, a turn to the north is forecast while the storm moves around the west side of the ridge and toward a weakness. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.2N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.7N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z 24.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 26.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 31.2N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z 37.5N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 202033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 39.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 39.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 40.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.1N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 37.5N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 39.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 ...EMILY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 39.4W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 39.4 West. Emily is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. A turn to the north is forecast by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emily could become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...EMILY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 20 the center of Emily was located near 20.2, -39.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 413 WTNT41 KNHC 202032 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection north and east of the depression has dissipated this afternoon. Once again, the center of circulation is completely exposed and is not as well-defined as earlier today. Based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity estimate for this advisory is held at 30 kt. Not much has changed with the forecast reasoning. Strong deep-layer westerly shear and unfavorable mid-level thermodynamics are expected to preclude further development of the depression. Global models and ensembles are in agreement that intensification is unlikely, and thus the official forecast has the depression as a remnant low in 12 h and dissipated in 24 h. The depression is now moving slightly north of due west, and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The official track forecast is a blend of consensus guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.6N 54.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.7N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 FONT11 KNHC 202031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 ...DEPRESSION STEADY DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 54.7W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low and dissipate in about 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...DEPRESSION STEADY DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 20 the center of Six was located near 16.6, -54.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 755 WTNT21 KNHC 202031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.7W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.7W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes are possible across the Lower Colorado Valley and southern Mojave Desert vicinity through around dusk. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the 2 percent tornado probabilities over AZ. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more details, and reference MCD 2017 for short term severe/tornado hazard information. ..Leitman.. 08/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023/ ...Desert Southwest... The conditional TC-tornado environment evident over the northern Gulf of CA and northwest Sonora is expected to spread north-northwest across the Lower CO Valley and southern Mojave Desert vicinity. The primary corridor of concern will be across southeast CA and adjacent portions of western AZ/southern NV this afternoon into early evening. Here, meager MLCAPE from 300-600 J/kg should develop with some thinning of the cloud canopy amid upper 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. This will remain coincident with an enlarged low-level hodograph in the northeast quadrant of weakening TC Hilary. Most 12Z HREF guidance struggles to maintain deep convection, but sustained low-topped convection could acquire updraft rotation and be capable of producing a brief tornado. This threat will end from south to north during the evening as low-level drying and decreasing hodograph curvature occurs within the southeast quadrant of the remnant TC. Relatively greater likelihood of deeper convective development is anticipated during the mid to late afternoon along the differential boundary-layer heating corridor from southeast AZ to southwest UT. This zone will be within the pronounced west to east gradient of high to low PW and consequently along the fringe of meager MLCAPE. At least isolated thunderstorms should form off the higher terrain and possess progressively weaker low-level SRH relative to the west/south. Some 12Z HREF members do depict a 2-5 km UH signal which makes sense given adequate shear within this layer. While mid-level rotation will be possible, isolated severe wind gusts should be the primary threat, particularly with any cells/small clusters that can propagate towards the more deeply mixed environment to the north-northeast. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A large-scale upper-level anticyclone will meander across the central U.S. through much of the week before slowly drifting westward toward the Rockies by next weekend. Relatively rich deep-layer moisture pivoting around the upper anticyclone will promote overall cooler/moist conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile, hot and dry surface conditions will prevail beneath the upper anticyclone over the central and southern CONUS. The latest guidance consensus suggests that some overlap in dry/windy conditions may occur over eastern Colorado Day 3/Tuesday, with 40% Critical probabilities introduced. Thereafter, overall weaker surface winds are expected on a widespread basis across the southern High Plains into the Southeast, with more focused areas of relatively greater wildfire-spread potential confined locally. ..Squitieri.. 08/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more