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The Town of Strasburg declared a drought emergency condition due to the low level of the North Fork of the Shenandoah River, the main water source for the town. This is the first drought emergency since 2017. The river’s seven-day average flow had dropped to 70 cfs as of Aug. 9, which led to the drought emergency declaration. The aim is to reduce daily water demand by 10% to 15% through mandatory water restrictions. The level of the North Fork River in Strasburg Aug. 15 was 1.7 feet which is not far above the record low of 1.5 feet set in February of 1934. WHSV Online (Harrisonburg, Va.), Aug 15, 2023

MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152151Z - 152345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment, with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However, with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2 inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454 32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430 30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645 Read more

WW 0651 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0651 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 651 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 152145Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to progress generally east-northeastward toward eastern North Carolina through the evening, with the stronger storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Fayetteville NC to 35 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649...WW 650... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RZZ TO 35 SW DOV TO 20 N TTN. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-152240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-015-019-037-039-045-047-152240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-025-029-033-152240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA CW 151810Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Northeast North Carolina Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of the storms will become severe, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Trenton NJ to 15 miles east of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A weak upper low is expected to remain off the California coast perhaps into early next week. Model guidance continues to differ in terms of the evolution of the upper-level pattern late this week into the weekend. At some point, an upper trough in the Northwest is expected to phase with the weak upper low. High pressure at the surface will remain in the Plains through midweek. Thereafter, a cold front is forecast to push southward into parts of the southern Plains late this week. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions appear probable on Thursday and Friday from the east side of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin. Temperatures will be higher on Thursday than on Friday. This could lead to a small increase in RH on Friday. However, guidance still suggests both days will reach critically low values. Winds on Thursday will primarily be driven by the thermal pressure trough in the Basin. Mid-level winds will increase on Friday as the mid-level jet overspreads most of Washington. Critical fire weather potential will exist on both days, but the greater potential should exist on Friday given the greater expected coverage of 20-25 mph winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur each day through the weekend in parts of Oregon. PWAT values will continue to increase and lead to wetting rainfall potential. There is some possibility that storms may be slightly drier on Friday in north-central/northeast Oregon with drier air working in from the south and strong mid-level winds moving in from the north. Coverage of dry thunderstorms should remain low, though lightning away from storm cores could still pose problems. ...Montana... With an upper-level trough approaching the Northwest, a surface low is expected to deepen in Alberta. There is some model disagreement as to the evolution of the surface low late this week, but enhanced downslope winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday in the lee of the northern Rockies. With temperatures expected to be higher on Thursday, greater confidence in critical fire weather exists. Cooler temperatures and the potential for a cold front to limit the duration of fire weather concerns leads to less confidence on Friday. ...Texas... Hot surface temperatures should return to the region by Thursday. The development of thermal pressure troughs may lead to some locally elevated conditions in the presence of extremely dry fuels. There may be some broader increase in surface winds on Friday as a large-scale surface trough develops into the southern Plains. Trends will need to be monitored, but wind speeds continue to look too weak for critical probabilities. In addition, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the surface trough with the extreme heat, but predictability is quite low. ..Wendt.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:47:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 21:23:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 Fernanda seems to be resuming a weakening trend possibly due to moderate deep-layer shear and embedded dry air. Infrared satellite images indicate that the coverage of deep convection has decreased during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at 77 kt and 102 kt, respectively. CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates are in the 90 kt to 99 kt range. Thus, the initial intensity is decreased to 90 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is now moving westward at 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A weak mid-level ridge to the northwest of Fernanda is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next several days. The current NHC track forecast has been updated with minor adjustments. The official forecast track takes Fernanda over cooler waters, crossing the 26C isotherm in 18 to 24 hours. While the current moderate vertical wind shear is expected to diminish in about 12 hours, the hurricane will be encountering an increasingly dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Fernanda is forecast to quickly weaken over the next couple of days. Fernanda is now expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.3N 122.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152040 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 ...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 122.8W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 122.8 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Fernanda is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and weaken to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Aug 15 the center of Fernanda was located near 17.3, -122.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 041 WTPZ22 KNHC 152040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI

A boil water advisory was issued by the Plaquemines Parish Government for a portion of Port Sulphur after a 20-inch water main break on the morning of Tuesday, Aug. 15. Residents and businesses across Plaquemines Parish have been urged to conserve water due to extreme heat and drought. WDSU (New Orleans, La.), Aug 15, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts should be most common this through this evening from central North Carolina to southern New Jersey. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to severe probabilities based on current location of the surface front and ongoing convection. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Reference ongoing severe thunderstorm watches 649 and 650, and forthcoming MCDs for short term severe storm info. ..Leitman.. 08/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023/ ...NC to Mid-Atlantic Region... Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper low over northwest OH, with a band of 50-60 knot southwesterly mid/upper level winds extending from TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic region and southern New England. The associated surface cold front runs along/just west of the spine of the Appalachians from PA into east TN. Mostly clear skies ahead of the front will combine with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to yield a very unstable air mass by mid-afternoon, with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. This should result in intensifying clusters of storms from western NC into central VA/southeast PA tracking eastward through the afternoon and early evening. Strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates, and high moisture content will likely result in bowing structures and a few supercells capable of severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor changes were made to the dry thunder area in northern California to account for current guidance. The forecast otherwise remains on track. ..Wendt.. 08/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to build over the western US while a weak upper low moves off the West Coast. Across the central US, a mid-level trough is forecast to move out of southern Canada with an accompanying surface cold front sweeping southeastward across the northern Rockies. Dry downslope winds are likely to support locally elevated fire-weather concerns over parts of northern MT. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Northwest. ...Northwest... Another round of showers and high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA and southern OR D2/Wed, as the upper low moves off the West Coast. Monsoon moisture will continue to increase with PWATs exceeding 1 inch. With the low farther offshore, easterly flow aloft will slacken, resulting in gradually diminishing storm speeds. Widely scattered, initially dry, storms are expected, but precipitation efficiency should rise through the day as storms slow down and moisture values increase. While QPF is forecast to increase with time, very dry and receptive fuels, along with initially dry storms, will favor some risk for lightning ignitions. ...Northern Rockies... As the Alberta trough continues to move south into the US, a cold front/wind shift will move through the northern Rockies early D2/Wed. Gusty northwest winds will remain strong through the day with downslope gusts of 15-20 mph possible. While RH values will likely be higher from the cooler air mass behind the front, diurnal minimums below 35% are expected. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given dry fuels and breezy conditions across much of northern MT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days or so, while the system moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Delgado

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
tonight or early Wednesday. Some slow development of this system is
possible later this week or over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Less than 24 hours after the announcement of Stage 2 water restrictions, the city of Beaumont entered Stage 3 due to high water demand. Water customers used 39 million gallons daily for three consecutive days. Under Stage 3 restrictions, the aim is to reduce water use by 12.5%. Beaumont Enterprise (Texas), Aug 15, 2023

Some water customers of Texas Water Company were in stage four watering restrictions due to intense heat and exceptional drought conditions. Nearly half of the counties served by Texas Water Company were already in stage four, including Bandera, Medina and Kendall counties, while the other half of the service area remained in stage three water restrictions. Outdoor water use is prohibited in stage four water restrictions. Texas Water Company draws from the Trinity Aquifer as its primary water source. News 4 San Antonio (Texas), Aug 13, 2023