Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Multiple mid-level troughs are poised to overspread the CONUS through the week, with surface high pressure and associated cool conditions prevailing over most of the U.S. through at least Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, surface cyclone development is likely across the southern Plains, shifting eastward as the weekend approaches, resulting in wet conditions. Thereafter, a moist low-level airmass will reside across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while cool and dry conditions prevail through most of the rest of the CONUS. With the exception of localized, brief wildfire conditions possible with dry downslope flow along the High Plains, no significant wildfire-spread potential appears evident over the U.S. this week. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Multiple mid-level troughs are poised to overspread the CONUS through the week, with surface high pressure and associated cool conditions prevailing over most of the U.S. through at least Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, surface cyclone development is likely across the southern Plains, shifting eastward as the weekend approaches, resulting in wet conditions. Thereafter, a moist low-level airmass will reside across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while cool and dry conditions prevail through most of the rest of the CONUS. With the exception of localized, brief wildfire conditions possible with dry downslope flow along the High Plains, no significant wildfire-spread potential appears evident over the U.S. this week. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Multiple mid-level troughs are poised to overspread the CONUS through the week, with surface high pressure and associated cool conditions prevailing over most of the U.S. through at least Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, surface cyclone development is likely across the southern Plains, shifting eastward as the weekend approaches, resulting in wet conditions. Thereafter, a moist low-level airmass will reside across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while cool and dry conditions prevail through most of the rest of the CONUS. With the exception of localized, brief wildfire conditions possible with dry downslope flow along the High Plains, no significant wildfire-spread potential appears evident over the U.S. this week. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Multiple mid-level troughs are poised to overspread the CONUS through the week, with surface high pressure and associated cool conditions prevailing over most of the U.S. through at least Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, surface cyclone development is likely across the southern Plains, shifting eastward as the weekend approaches, resulting in wet conditions. Thereafter, a moist low-level airmass will reside across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while cool and dry conditions prevail through most of the rest of the CONUS. With the exception of localized, brief wildfire conditions possible with dry downslope flow along the High Plains, no significant wildfire-spread potential appears evident over the U.S. this week. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Primary change has been to trim the northwest extent of the thunder area in the Southeast based on latest obs. Low probability for a transient supercell remains evident in the 22-02Z time frame, mainly along the west-central FL coast near the quasi-stationary front draped from 30 SW OCF to around DAB. To the south of this front, the 18Z RAP remains on the aggressive end of guidance, suggesting the intrusion of MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg from the northeast Gulf. Convection within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime preceding this potential buoyancy intrusion is ongoing west-southwest of Tampa Bay. This activity should shift east-northeast over the next few hours within a wind profile marginally conducive to low-level updraft rotation. But bulk of 12Z HREF and NSSL-MPAS guidance and the 18Z HRRR are insistent that convection will weaken as it moves inland over the peninsula and generally subside after mid-evening. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ...Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the Great Lakes, mainly Monday evening/night. ...Great Lakes... A longwave trough will become established across southeast Canada into parts of the central to eastern CONUS on Monday. Several embedded shortwave impulses will rotate around the Canadian upper low, with one such impulse progged to move across southern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. This will usher in further cooling of 700-mb temperatures, deepening inversion heights from the Upper to the Lower Great Lakes. With relatively warm water temperatures in the 40s to low 50s at present, intensifying lake effect snow bands are expected, especially where low-level flow is more favorably aligned in the Tug Hill Plateau region downstream of Lake Ontario on Monday evening/night. 12Z NAM/15Z RAP and most 12Z HREF member forecast soundings depict a thermodynamic environment suitable for mixed-phase updrafts capable of charge separation in the relatively deeper/longer-lived lake-effect bands. ...South FL... A surface cold front will progress across the southern peninsula during the morning and afternoon. Potential for deep convection should be mitigated by drying/warming between 850-700 mb ahead of the boundary and minimal large-scale ascent outside of weak convergence along it. Thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the Great Lakes, mainly Monday evening/night. ...Great Lakes... A longwave trough will become established across southeast Canada into parts of the central to eastern CONUS on Monday. Several embedded shortwave impulses will rotate around the Canadian upper low, with one such impulse progged to move across southern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. This will usher in further cooling of 700-mb temperatures, deepening inversion heights from the Upper to the Lower Great Lakes. With relatively warm water temperatures in the 40s to low 50s at present, intensifying lake effect snow bands are expected, especially where low-level flow is more favorably aligned in the Tug Hill Plateau region downstream of Lake Ontario on Monday evening/night. 12Z NAM/15Z RAP and most 12Z HREF member forecast soundings depict a thermodynamic environment suitable for mixed-phase updrafts capable of charge separation in the relatively deeper/longer-lived lake-effect bands. ...South FL... A surface cold front will progress across the southern peninsula during the morning and afternoon. Potential for deep convection should be mitigated by drying/warming between 850-700 mb ahead of the boundary and minimal large-scale ascent outside of weak convergence along it. Thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the Great Lakes, mainly Monday evening/night. ...Great Lakes... A longwave trough will become established across southeast Canada into parts of the central to eastern CONUS on Monday. Several embedded shortwave impulses will rotate around the Canadian upper low, with one such impulse progged to move across southern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. This will usher in further cooling of 700-mb temperatures, deepening inversion heights from the Upper to the Lower Great Lakes. With relatively warm water temperatures in the 40s to low 50s at present, intensifying lake effect snow bands are expected, especially where low-level flow is more favorably aligned in the Tug Hill Plateau region downstream of Lake Ontario on Monday evening/night. 12Z NAM/15Z RAP and most 12Z HREF member forecast soundings depict a thermodynamic environment suitable for mixed-phase updrafts capable of charge separation in the relatively deeper/longer-lived lake-effect bands. ...South FL... A surface cold front will progress across the southern peninsula during the morning and afternoon. Potential for deep convection should be mitigated by drying/warming between 850-700 mb ahead of the boundary and minimal large-scale ascent outside of weak convergence along it. Thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible. ..Grams.. 11/26/2023 Read more