Aggregator

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ABNT20 KNHC 101828
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Water users in the City of Galveston were asked to conserve water as demand between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. was excessive, due to lawn irrigation amid the extreme heat and drought. Water use has been highest on the island’s West End. KRIV FOX 26 Houston (Texas), Aug 9, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Missouri Valley areas on Friday. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys... Ongoing thunderstorms -- and some lingering severe potential -- are expected at the start of the period over the southern Wisconsin/eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois/northern Missouri vicinity. This convection is forecast to continue moving east/southeastward across the central Illinois vicinity through midday. The strongest storms may be capable of producing locally damaging winds and marginal hail. Over southern portions of the SLGT risk area -- i.e. the Mid Mississippi and Lower Missouri Valleys and vicinity -- redevelopment of convection near a roughly west-to-east outflow is expected during the afternoon, and continuing into the evening (aided by southwesterly low-level jet development). With moderate (30 to 40 kt) mid-level northwesterlies, organized/locally severe storms are expected, with locally damaging wind gusts and hail expected. Risk may persist into the overnight hours as storms move southeastward. Farther north, over the Upper Mississippi Valley area, afternoon storm redevelopment is expected, as short-wave mid-level troughing shifts southeastward out of Canada. With daytime heating resulting in ample destabilization, and strong (40 to 50 kt) mid-level northwesterly flow, organized storms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and hail are expected to evolve, spreading eastward/southeastward through the evening. Local risk may extend as far east as Lower Michigan into the overnight hours. ...The Southeast... As a weak short-wave trough crosses the Southeast, and a very weak/outflow-reinforced surface front lingers, afternoon heating of the moist boundary layer in place will result in moderate destabilization. This will help to foster redevelopment of storms from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast. With moderate lower- to mid-level west-southwesterly flow (around 30 kt), some potential for upscale linear growth/forward propagation is evident, which suggests strong/gusty winds across the area, including a few gusts which may approach severe levels during the afternoon and into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/10/2023 Read more

Drought in Texas has dried up grass and depleted stock tanks as the state endured record heat. The owner of a feed and supply store in Tennessee Colony reported that ranchers were getting feed deliveries in early August rather than mid-November as they usually do. Reuters (New York), Aug 10, 2023

The Brazos River Authority notified customers of a Stage 2 drought warning for communities getting water from Lake Stillhouse Hollow and Lake Georgetown. Water conservation was needed because the amount of water stored in the lakes was declining. Stage 2 restrictions require a reduction in water use of 10%. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 4, 2023

Since water restriction enforcement began in the city of Wichita Falls in mid-July, 59 citations were issued through the municipal court system. Texoma’s Homepage (Wichita Falls, Texas), Aug 9, 2023

Drought delayed the ripening of apples at an orchard in Champaign, so harvest will occur later than usual. The pumpkins have taken longer to blossom. The opening of the pumpkin patch to visitors usually happens around Sept. 15, but may be pushed later into the month. WAND-TV (Champaign, Ill.), Aug 8, 2023

Gardening centers in Wichita Falls were educating customers about the watering needs of newly planted trees and shrubs and efficient watering methods. The city remained in stage 1 drought restrictions. KAUZ-TV CBS 6 Wichita Falls (Texas), Aug 9, 2023

The drought and heat of summer have led to higher demand for lawncare services such as irrigation, while pool construction has also remained busy. The president of a lawn care business stated that irrigation services had roughly doubled in 2023. A pool construction company has had an increase in demand of 25% to 50%. Even with additional workers, both businesses had a backlog. CBS News Minnesota (Minneapolis), Aug 9, 2023

Tomball entered stage 2 of its drought contingency plan as water demand exceeded 70% of production capacity for three consecutive days, triggering mandatory water restrictions. Tomball entered stage 1 in mid-July. Katy was also in stage 2 of its contingency plan. Houston Chronicle (Texas), Aug 9, 2023

MD 1922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Areas affected...The Red River Valley region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092220Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Red River Valley will pose a risk for severe winds over the next several hours. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Robust convective initiation is underway along a surface trough draped from eastern OK into north/northwest TX. 12 UTC soundings from OUN and FWD sampled high PWAT values generally near 1.75 inches, but recent surface observations are showing high dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-50 F. This suggests that the low-level thermodynamic environment is very deeply mixed and should support accelerating downdrafts. A mix of wet/dry downbursts appear possible with an attendant risk for severe winds. Trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if it becomes evident the severe threat will be sufficiently widespread and persistent. ..Moore/Thompson.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33159767 32589859 32239920 32089977 32310009 32679983 33419888 33959814 34249771 34629699 34709622 34639533 34019517 33439542 33289645 33159767 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Texas... Extremely dry and warm conditions, with daily highs 100+ F degrees, will continue across central and southern Texas through the extended period. While light rainfall will be possible across portions of southwest/north central Texas, much of central Texas will likely remain dry through D8. High pressure building in across the Four Corners to the Southern Plains will keep winds mostly light, though locally breezy conditions may occur. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns will be likely daily, with low confidence in any one corridor where sustained winds will support Critical risk probabilities. Though the winds will largely stay below criteria, expect continued potential for new fire starts and rapid fire growth in hot and unstable conditions and extremely critically dry fuels. ...Pacific Northwest... Building high pressure will bring warming across the Pacific Northwest. Initial thunderstorm development will be possible as tropical moisture extends northward D4 - Saturday lingering into D7 - Tuesday (detailed below). Beyond the early week thunderstorm activity, thermal troughing may increase. This may lead to increased fire weather concerns in the extended. Confidence is low at this time in placement and strength and as a result impacts. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Potential remnants of tropical storm activity will spread northward into California and southern Oregon beginning D2 - Thursday through D3 - Friday. Recent model runs have been slower and drier with northern extent of the incoming moisture. Initial activity across central/northern California will likely be isolated, with low potential for a dry thunderstorm or two. Potential for thunderstorms will increase into D4 - Saturday and D5 - Sunday as better instability spreads across northern California. A mix of wet/dry storms with gusty and erratic winds may be possible. Confidence in coverage remains too low to include any areas at this time but this will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MKL TO 15 W CHA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 ..WEINMAN..08/09/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-019-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093- 095-103-127-133-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CHEROKEE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-057-117-141-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN ITAWAMBA PRENTISS TISHOMINGO Read more

WW 617 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 091850Z - 100100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeast Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase and intensify along a warm front/instability gradient across the region, with wind profiles supportive of a few supercells and bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 50 miles north northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 618 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 092105Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The air mass in the wake of storms earlier today continues to gradually destabilize, with severe storms expected to increase mainly near a front through late afternoon and early evening. Strong wind profiles will support initial supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Springfield MO to 30 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 617... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Montana...southern North Dakota...northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092059Z - 092330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail or wind may occur later this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, along with sparse areas of convective initiation, are underway ahead of a diffuse trailing cold front from extreme eastern MT, eastward along the SD/ND border. Ample heating has mixed the boundary layer, with observed upper 70s/low 80s F temperatures amid low 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8.5+ C/km boundary-layer lapse rates (20Z mesoanalysis). Given the dry boundary layer, RAP forecast soundings depict the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (currently in place) distributed in tall/skinny profiles, though unidirectional speed shear is in place. As such, a few multicells or transient supercells may become sustained and support an instance or two of severe hail/wind. Since the severe threat should be sparse, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47890494 47620358 46419934 46079728 45589689 45069696 44809822 44880039 45290175 46080364 46640481 47450509 47890494 Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northern Alabama...southern Tennessee... northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 092042Z - 092245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...The primary hazard within WW 617 will remain damaging wind gusts with an organized linear segment along the AL/TN border. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream as the airmass destabilizes further. A tornado threat may also be developing along the outflow from this cluster from northeast Mississippi into northern Alabama. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster/linear segment of storms continues east along the Alabama/Tennessee border. With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 80s F in parts of southeastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia, this activity may be able to persist and pose a threat for wind damage into these areas. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon into parts of southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia. Along the outflow to the southwest, one storm has initiated in northeast Mississippi with other deepening cumulus in the vicinity. These storms will likely be more discrete and pose a threat for a tornado or two as well as large hail and damaging winds. Convective trends will need to be monitored with this activity to determine if a more substantive tornado threat will develop in the next few hours. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34188860 34928766 35218742 35698727 35418465 35168400 34328389 33728433 33688649 33998834 34188860 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook risk areas. See previous discussion for more information. Additional information on thunderstorm chances below. ...Mix of Wet/Dry Thunderstorms North Central Texas... High-based scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across north-central Texas Thursday afternoon. Lightning activity is expected along with gusty outflow winds. Rainfall amounts overall are expected to be brief and light. Additionally, some portion of this region has seen light rain in the last few days. Given the extremely dry fuels, new starts will be possible with locally gusty conditions leading to increased fire behavior. No areas were included at this time as confidence in where dry over wet thunderstorm activity will be is low. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be more limited Thursday compared to previous days with the greatest threat most likely to emerge out of southern to central TX. Elsewhere across the country, localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop across the Snake River Plain in eastern Idaho, as well as the Wyoming Basin in southwest Wyoming, but unreceptive fuels will limit the fire weather threat. ...Texas... As with previous days, hot conditions are forecast again across much of the state with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-30% range. Fuels should remain critically dry despite isolated rain/thunderstorm chances across north TX on Wednesday. However, winds will generally be benign (between 10-15 mph). There is modest probability for sustained winds near 15 mph from the Big Bend region into west central TX in the vicinity of a weak confluence axis. An Elevated risk area is introduced to highlight this corridor where at least 2-3 hours of winds near 15 mph are possible during peak heating. Thunderstorms developing along the boundary by late afternoon will pose a risk of gusty, erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more