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WW 505 SEVERE TSTM MA NY PA VT LE LO 281605Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Massachusetts Central and Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase through the afternoon, initially across central into eastern New York and possibly northeast Pennsylvania, before reaching western New England by late afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard regionally. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Ithaca NY to 5 miles north of Lebanon NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Guyer Read more

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281538 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Corrected typo in first paragraph Georgette's structure on conventional satellite imagery remains distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in determining the center location on first-light visible, which appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A 1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60 hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3 days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one, attempting to the account for the possibility that the stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting these binary TC interactions. Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity diagnosed by SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could still import dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its current convective structure. After today, the majority of the guidance either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the latest intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual weakening is shown after that time. At 120 hours, Georgette is forecast to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or passes by to its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest agreement to the latest LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

 The Honey Creek fire remains at an estimated 353 acres and is now considered 100% contained. This will be the last update on this

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:46:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:28:33 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 230 FOPZ13 KNHC 281446 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 65 18(83) X(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 120W 50 20 18(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 120W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 118.7W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) but a turn to the west-southwest or southwest is anticipated today or tonight into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little additional strengthening is forecast today or tonight followed by little change in intensity through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 the center of Georgette was located near 15.8, -118.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:43:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 564 WTPZ42 KNHC 281440 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant. However, SSM/IS microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to the northeast of the main convective bands. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point. The new intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt, and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening. This part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies near the intensity consensus aids. Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just a little to the north after about 36 h. Thus, the new track forecast is nudged a little northward during that time. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 281439 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 1 12(13) 66(79) 7(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) 13(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) X(39) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 281438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 281438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 110.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 110.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected today, with a faster rate of strengthening forecast by tonight and Friday. Frank is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 the center of Frank was located near 13.2, -110.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

The Dog House Two Fire began at approximately 420pm on Tuesday, July 26. Local crews initially estimated the fire at 10 acres, with one structure lost. Crews were able to stop the forward progression of the fire within the hour and dozers began constructing line on both sides of the fire's edge, working northbound. The fire is burning in heavy mesquite and extremely rough terrain. By 6pm, fire personnel estimated the fire to be 30 acres and 80% contained. Dozers secured line around the fire's perimeter and the engines patrolled the area and "mopped up" residual heat around the perimeter through the evening. By the morning of July 27, fire personnel estimated the fire to be a total of 19 acres and 95% contained. Two engines will remain on scene July 27 to mop up residual heat and patrol the fire area. The fire's cause is

Texas A&M Forest Service is responding to a request for assistance on a wildfire in Williamson County. The San Gabriel Fire ignited on July 23, 2022, approximately 6 miles east of Liberty Hill near the Lake Georgetown Recreational Area.Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with the local jurisdiction. The agency is responding to 50 personnel, 3 dozers, 11 engines and 11 suppression aircraft, including 3 fire boss single engine air tankers, 3 large airtankers and the DC-10. A Temporary Flight Restriction is in place over the fire. Do not fly drones in the TFR, firefighting aircraft cannot fly if unauthorized drones are in the no flight

 The Haywire Fire was reported at 5:30 a.m. June 13, 2022. It originated 7.5 miles northeast of Doney Park. Information regarding fire restrictions and forest closures can be found online at https://www.fs.usda.gov/coconino Monsoonal storms will continue to develop and pass through the area into next week, bringing the possibility of lightning and isolated heavy precipitation around the fire area. Showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce flash flooding and debris flows off the Pipeline Fire scar, as well as the Tunnel and Museum fire scars, may occur. Cloud cover, high relative humidity, and precipitation will continue minimize fire behavior. Heat and smoke will still be present within the fire perimeter as interior pockets continue to burn unconsumed fuels.  The Coconino County Sheriff's Office has lifted all evacuations. Evacuation information can be found at bit.ly/Pipeline-Haywire-Evacs.

The Pipeline Fire was reported on June 12, 2022 and is approximately 6 miles north of Flagstaff. Information regarding fire restrictions and forest closures can be found online at https://www.fs.usda.gov/coconinoCoconino County Sheriff's Office is the authorizing and approving agency for evacuation notices, which works with Coconino County Emergency Management to post information about evacuations and which areas are in Ready, Set, or Go status. To view these areas, visit the County's Emergency Management

 THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands:-       Fire Suppression Repair-       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER)-       Long-Term Recovery and Restorationo   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts.o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest...

Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Limitations While many wildfires cause minimal damage to the land and pose few threats to the land or people downstream, some fires result in damage that requires special efforts to reduce impacts afterwards. Loss of vegetation exposes soil to erosion; water run-off may increase and cause flooding, soil and rock may move downstream and damage property or fill reservoirs putting community water supplies and endangered species at-risk.The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for stabilization work that involves time-critical activities to be completed before the first damaging storm event to meet program objectives.   BAER Objectives:  ·        ...