Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eugene, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central Part of the Basin:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south or
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the
week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

497
ABNT20 KNHC 071708
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Whole fields of corn in severe drought in central and eastern Missouri did not pollinate, due to drought. A grower in Randolph County reported that his corn had received just a few inches of rain all year. While the corn may look lush and green, the ears may have a few kernels, but mostly did not pollinate. The lack of pollination was widespread in the Randolph County area, according to the farmer. AgWeb (Mexico, Mo.), Aug 7, 2023

Just two inches of rain have fallen on a Buffalo County farm since early June. The dryland corn was being swathed and baled. Sixteen of his 17 ponds have gone dry, forcing him to haul water for his cattle as the windmills could not keep pace. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), July 27, 2023

Drought in the Chicago area since late May has caused some trees to drop their leaves earlier than usual. The region's trees have also been stressed by less than ideal weather for the past decade or more. Tulip trees and river birches have been sensitive to the dearth of rain. Arlington Heights Daily Herald (Ill.), Aug 1, 2023

Corn leaves were rolling and soybean leaves were flipping in parts of northwest Iowa with lighter soils. Storm Lake Times Pilot (Iowa), Aug 4, 2023

Drought and heat in the Ozarks have cut into hay production, leaving the region seriously short of hay. The farm service office in Bolivar was working with farmers to help them buy hay. Many farmers have had to take second jobs. KY3 (Springfield, Mo.), July 30, 2023

Wisconsin crops have already sustained damage and will not recover from drought. some corn did not pollinate well. A Sauk County farmer was letting pasture rest longer because grass was not growing back and turned brown. WiscNews (Madison, Wis.), Aug. 4, 2023

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into far southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596... Valid 062224Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds will remain possible into the evening hours as storms approach the Georgia/South Carolina coast; however, this threat will likely remain fairly limited. Downstream watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm clusters/lines across central to eastern Georgia have largely become outflow dominant over the past few hours. With cell motions to the east - orthogonal to the outflow propagation vector - new development along these boundaries is uncertain across central GA. Further east, a more easterly cold-pool motion is allowing for new cell development within an unstable air mass (SBCAPE estimates up to 2000-3000 J/kg). Forecast soundings from this region appear favorable for wet downbursts capable of damaging winds. The expectation over the next hour is for continued cell development along/behind the eastward-moving outflow with the potential for sporadic damaging winds. This activity may persist to the GA/SC coast, but storm longevity/organization will remain too limited to pose a more robust threat. Consequently, downstream watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore.. 08/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32448275 32688223 33068170 33128126 33028076 32698046 32358043 31828085 31448105 31378119 31428188 31858254 32148284 32278285 32448275 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Central/Southwestern Texas... Very hot and dry conditions across central/southwestern Texas have led to critically dry fuels with an increase in fire activity. On Tuesday, a surface low will develop across the Southern Plains and deepen into Wednesday morning. Increasing surface winds will be likely into the afternoon/evening across central/southwestern Texas. A developing low-level jet will bring sustained winds 20-25 mph late D3 -Tuesday through D4 - Wednesday morning with moisture steadily increasing from the southeast. Relative humidity will continue to hover near 20-25 percent much of Tuesday evening before better moisture return begins. Afternoon mixing will allow relative-humidity reductions on D4 - Wednesday to 15-20 percent but winds should decrease below Critical thresholds through the day. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue each day through the extended period, as dry conditions and more warm temperatures continue each afternoon under lighter winds. ...Southwest... Dry westerly flow will persist across northern Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and north/central New Mexico on D3 - Tuesday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (as low as 5-10 percent across southern Utah) will overlap sustained winds 10-20 mph. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. At present, inclusion of a 70 percent Critical area is limited by unknowns in the duration and coverage of Critical winds. In addition, moisture will be steadily increasing beneath the Southwest high Tuesday into Wednesday across Arizona and western New Mexico. This will be a return of shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Wednesday. Elevated fire weather conditions will become more sparse on Wednesday as a result, mainly confined to central New Mexico. Winds decrease beneath the building high beyond Wednesday with increasing moisture and potential uptick in monsoon thunderstorm activity. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE COU TO 35 SSW UIN TO 15 WNW UIN TO 35 WSW BRL TO 15 NE OTM. ..LYONS..08/06/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-047-049-051- 057-061-067-071-079-081-083-101-107-109-115-117-119-121-125-129- 133-135-137-139-145-149-157-159-163-167-169-171-173-185-187-189- 191-062240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY LAWRENCE LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY WABASH WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 597 TORNADO IA IL MO 062015Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Western and South-Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, initially across southeast Iowa, far eastern Missouri and western Illinois. This includes supercells capable of large hail and a tornado risk. Storms should increase and move into/across much of south-central Illinois by evening, with damaging winds also a possibility. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 45 miles southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 595...WW 596... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CHA TO 30 NNW ATL TO 30 ENE ATL TO 35 WNW AGS TO 10 N AGS TO 10 WSW CAE. ..LYONS..08/06/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-015-021-023-033-035-045-047-053-055-063-077-079-083-097- 107-113-115-125-129-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-167-169-171- 175-193-197-199-207-215-217-223-225-231-233-237-249-255-263-269- 283-285-289-293-295-301-303-313-319-062240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY BURKE BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CLAYTON COWETA CRAWFORD DADE DOUGLAS EMANUEL FAYETTE FLOYD GLASCOCK GORDON HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES LAMAR LAURENS MACON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE NEWTON PAULDING PEACH PIKE POLK PUTNAM SCHLEY SPALDING TALBOT TAYLOR TREUTLEN TROUP TWIGGS UPSON Read more

WW 596 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 061935Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and Central Georgia Western South Carolina * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to move generally eastward across the region within a moist/unstable environment, with damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of La Grange GA to 15 miles south of Augusta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 595... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE TCL TO 10 SW GAD TO 35 W RMG TO 20 NW CHA. ..LYONS..08/06/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC015-019-027-029-055-111-115-117-121-062240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE ETOWAH RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 595 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 061820Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will likely evolve and move generally eastward across the region this afternoon, with damaging winds as the most common severe-weather hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 45 miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Areas affected...Central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062125Z - 062330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may materialize across central Colorado if developing thunderstorms can become established. Confidence in this scenario is uncertain, and the threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to negate the need for a watch. However, trends will be monitored given the strong environmental shear. DISCUSSION...Early attempts at supercell development within an upslope flow regime are underway across the front range of central CO per recent KFTG imagery. Lift away from the terrain is rather meager, and a stout cap was sampled by recent ACAR soundings out of Denver, CO. While lift and thermodynamic conditions are not overly favorable for supercell sustenance away from the terrain, environmental wind shear is very favorable for organized convection. The same ACAR soundings sampled elongated, straight hodographs featuring deep-layer shear on the order of 50-60 knots. This wind profile favors storm splitting, which has already been observed with a few early (though transient) cells. Additionally, a mid-level baroclinic zone is noted in 700 mb analyses draped from central to southeast CO. This may be a preferential corridor for supercell propagation if shear-related pressure perturbations can compensate for the modest thermodynamic environment and allow storm maturation. If this occurs, supercells will be capable of very large hail and severe winds. Confidence in the manifestation of this threat, as well as the spatial coverage of storms, remains uncertain and currently precludes watch issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore/Edwards.. 08/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38890511 39150542 39480555 39850548 40040533 40150499 40110474 39270317 39020290 38680265 38370263 38050270 37850299 37800335 38890511 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Aug 2023 20:33:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Aug 2023 21:29:46 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Eugene is sending some mixed signals this afternoon. While earlier a possible eye feature was present on the visible imagery, the feature has weakened and become part of a ragged central dense overcast. Overall, the system doesn't seem much different than the last advisory, so 60 kt is maintained on this cycle. The Dvorak estimate ranges are quite large, with estimates of 40-65 kt, so the initial wind is a bit more uncertain than average. The storm should begin to weaken overnight as it crosses a tight sea-surface temperature gradient, with very cold waters along the forecast track within 24 h. By early Tuesday, Eugene should transition to a non-convective post-tropical low, consistent with the stable environment and the latest global model infrared satellite forecasts. The new NHC forecast is slightly lower than the last one, between the model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus prediction. Eugene is moving along pretty quickly to the west-northwest at about 17 kt. This motion should continue for about a day until it reaches the edge of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a weaker cyclone should slow down and turn northward toward a weakness in the ridge. However, the very hostile environment should cause what's left of Eugene to stall well west of Baja California and degenerate to a trough in about 3 days. The latest NHC track is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern Pacific track consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake