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WW 0666 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central
America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. A broad area
of low pressure is trying to form south-southeast of Acapulco in
association with this disturbance, but there is no evidence of a
well defined center at this time. Environmental conditions are very
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so,
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion
of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on
Saturday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the
possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272304
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Karen which has
dissipated several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Dry conditions during the growing season left soybeans smaller than usual in Darke County and Clark County, where yields were as low as 30 bushels per acre. Better yields are often in the 60 to 70 bushels per acre range. It was too late for rain to help crops. Dayton Daily News (Ohio), Sept. 24, 2019

MD 2027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 Areas affected...South-central Kansas northeastward through north-central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 272237Z - 280100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop along a cold front in the 23-00Z timeframe and will pose a risk of hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. A WW issuance will likely be needed by 00Z if not earlier. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery and objective analyses indicate deepening cumulus along a front located from near P28 and south-central Kansas northeastward to near TOP, with additional convection forming across north-central Missouri near IRK. These storms are in a strongly unstable environment characterized by 3000-4000+ J/kg MUCAPE along with strong deep shear supporting organization once storms materialize. Point forecast soundings and satellite imagery indicate substantial mid-level inhibition, though this inhibition may be weak enough for storms to materialize near P28 and vicinity where boundary layer heating/mixing has removed capping. Mid/upper forcing for ascent is modest, however, and convective development will ultimately depend on continued convergence near the cold front. Once storms mature, large (perhaps significant) hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out in this regime given the magnitude of instability and 35-45 kt low-level flow. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is expected to cover the eventual severe threat, and although specific timing of convection is not fully certain, this Watch may be needed between 2300-0000Z or so. ..Cook/Guyer.. 09/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 40759246 40949285 40749363 40339439 39519570 38749727 38069835 37379934 37139939 36979882 37189770 38129605 38889486 39429357 39669280 39949244 40339223 40579223 40759246 Read more

Water supplies for livestock in Mason County have gone dry, so the cattle cannot get as much water as they need, preventing them from gaining weight. WCHS-TV ABC 8 (Charleston, W.V.), Sept. 26, 2019

With pastures depleted in Lauderdale County, farmers were feeding livestock hay. Dry soil has prevented the planting of rye grass, used as a winter forage. WTOK-TV Channel 11 (Meridian, Miss.), Sept. 27, 2019

An increase in wildland and brush fires in the Columbiana area has stressed volunteer fire departments. WAFF-TV NBC 48 Huntsville (Ala.), Sept. 26, 2019

Officials at the Emergency Operations Center in Bay County were concerned about the increasingly dry conditions, fire danger and the debris left behind from Hurricane Michael. The fire battalion chief urged the public to be very careful when burning materials outdoors. My Panhandle (Panama City, Fla.), Sept. 20, 2019

A burn ban began Sept. 25 for Land Between the Lakes in Tennessee and Kentucky as the area endured high fire danger, due to drought. WVVR-FM 100.3 Beaver (Clarksville, Tenn.), Sept. 25, 2019

Officials for the Daniel Boone National Forest issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of fire on national forest lands effective Sept. 27. WVLK-AM 590 News Talk (Lexington, Ky.), Sept. 27, 2019

The New Jersey Forest Fire Service enacted several fire restrictions as dry weather hastens the fall fire season. Counties in Division A in the northern part of the state are in high fire danger and must abide by Stage 1 fire restrictions, effective Sept. 27. Restrictions switch to Stage 2 restrictions on Sept. 30. The state is also burdened with a relatively heavy fuel load after two years of ample rain. New Jersey Herald (Newton, N.J.), Sept. 26, 2019

Fire crews in the Hamilton County area were adapting to drought conditions by having different crews responding to different types of fires. WRCB-TV NBC 3 Chattanooga (Tenn.), Sept. 24, 2019

Leaves were already falling in Cincinnati, and experts blame the early leaf drop on heat and drought. Typical autumn leaf drop is triggered by shortened days and ought to begin in October, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Cincinnati Enquirer & Cincinnati.com (Ohio), Sept. 25, 2019

The Georgetown Municipal Water and Sewer Service issued a Stage I Advisory and requested voluntary water conservation. Royal Spring can be drawn upon for about two hours, but then needed two hours to recover before pumping could resume. Georgetown also gets water from the Kentucky River, but water quality has led to taste and odor issues. News-Graphic.com (Georgetown, Ky.), Sept. 26, 2019

The Evans Creek fire is burning southwest of Reno, Nevada, in grass, brush and timber.

The Roanoke City Council decided that it was time to stress the importance of water conservation, given the drought. Randolph Leader (Ala.), Sept. 25, 2019

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0665 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0665 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 665 TORNADO IA IL MO 272100Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa West-central and northern Illinois Far northeast Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from southeast Iowa into west-central and northern Illinois this evening, with supercells eventually consolidating into one or more clusters. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Burlington IA to 25 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Read more