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The Brook Mole Fire began at about 2:20pm on Friday, July 29. Fire personnel estimated the fire to be about 300 acres and 0% contained upon arrival. The fire burned on both sides of Brook Mole Road. Fire crews successfully held the fire east of Eureka School Road with the assistance of multiple aerial resources. Dozers secured the fire's perimeter and engines "mopped up" pockets of residual heat along the fire's perimeter. Local crews remained on scene overnight to monitor the fire. Additional crews returned in the morning to mop up remaining heat along the fire's perimeter and patrol the fire line.  The fire received some rain Friday night and into Saturday morning. As of Saturday afternoon, the fire is 100%

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:40:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311439 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus models and is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:38:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:28:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 311438 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 64 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 25N 120W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 311437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 119.3W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of Frank was located near 19.3, -119.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle. There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory intensity. Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track guidance has changed little since that time. The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore, Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a tropical depression through early this week. There is some possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 335 WTPZ33 KNHC 311437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...GEORGETTE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 129.7W ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 129.7 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast occur on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected through tonight. Then, some slight restrengthing could occur in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...GEORGETTE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of Georgette was located near 13.1, -129.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 311437 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 271 FOPZ13 KNHC 311437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 30 17:42:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 30 17:42:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening. Other more isolated severe storms could also occur across parts of the Carolinas and central Plains. ...Minnesota/western Wisconsin... Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for parts of the region. A clipper-type shortwave trough will spread southeastward over the region amidst amplifying westerlies over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest through Sunday night. Scattered thunderstorm development seems probable near a southeastward-moving front across Minnesota Sunday afternoon. A favorable colocation of moderate buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and effective shear (40 kt) is expected particularly across the southern half of Minnesota. This could support some initial supercells, with storms likely to subsequently merge and potentially grown upscale during the evening across southeast Minnesota toward western Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary hazards. ...Nebraska/western Iowa... The region will be influenced by the southern periphery of the amplifying shortwave trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest. Heating/convergence near the southeastward-moving front (and pre-frontal trough) should be conducive for at least isolated thunderstorm development Sunday late afternoon/early evening, some of which could produce hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Carolinas/southern Appalachians... The persistent/convectively reinforced front across the region may transition a bit northward into Sunday, with a moist airmass remaining near the boundary and to its south. Although the details of destabilization and preferred corridors of more appreciable thunderstorm development are a bit uncertain, it currently appears that destabilization will be regionally maximized across the Carolinas. This should coincide with a modestly enhanced belt of westerlies aloft. Some of the stronger updrafts/downdrafts could produce wet microbursts capable of localized wind damage Sunday afternoon through early evening. ...Southern Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... The southern CONUS upper ridge should build a bit westward toward the region on Sunday, with some potential for a further enhancement to east-southeasterly mid-level winds particularly across southern Arizona. Some questions exist regarding the lingering influence/cloud cover of thunderstorms from later today and tonight into Sunday. However, if confidence increases in boundary layer recovery/destabilization, microburst-related severe wind probabilities could be warranted in later outlooks. ..Guyer.. 07/30/2022 Read more

665
ABPZ20 KNHC 301729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm Georgette,
located well over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z Expanded the IsoDryT delineation slightly farther north in Oregon and a bit farther south across northern California based on morning forecast soundings and CAM guidance. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the western U.S. through the day today, with a mid-level impulse expected to pivot around the ridge over the northern Rockies. The mid-level impulse will support dry and breezy surface conditions across eastern Montana during the afternoon, where fuels are becoming receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the addition of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, upslope flow of a marginally unstable airmass along the southern Cascades may support isolated high-based thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Fuels continue to efficiently dry in this area, supporting lightning ignition potential and warranting the addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and large hail may occur this afternoon into tonight across northeastern Montana into central North/South Dakota. ...Northern Plains... A shortwave trough along the northern periphery of a western US mid-level anticyclone will move out of southern Canada across portions of northern MT and ND late this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a lee trough will develop ahead of the emerging shortwave, drawing low 60s F surface dewpoints north across the Dakotas. Strong heating and mixing of the airmass along the surface trough may support isolated storms this afternoon. While generally less than 25 kt, effective shear may favor organized multi-cell clusters with an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and or hail. Overall confidence in severe coverage is low, but the highest likelihood of severe wind/hail within this regime will be from southern ND into central SD where hi-res guidance does show some convective signal. As the main shortwave emerges later in the evening, a cold front and associated surface low will move from southern SK into northeastern MT and far western ND. While poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, strong frontal convergence may still support isolated storms along and behind the front where low 60s F surface dewpoints should pool. 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kt of effective shear may allow some storm organization with the potential for damaging wind gusts and or severe hail. However, uncertainty on severe potential/coverage remains high given the poor timing of the main shortwave and the anafrontal nature of any convection that can develop. ...Southern US... Evident on morning visible imagery, a weak quasi stationary front will serve as a focus for another day of diurnal thunderstorms from the southern Plains into the southeastern US. Warm and moist through much of the lower atmosphere along and south of the boundary, the weakly sheared airmass will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern OK to the Carolinas. While an occasional gust may occur with any more concentrated storm clusters, overall predictability remains too low for the inclusion of severe probabilities. ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/30/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 14:40:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 15:28:45 GMT