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Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 ...HOWARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 116.9W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 116.9 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HOWARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 9 the center of Howard was located near 22.0, -116.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Texas A&M Forest Service has been requested to assist on the Smoke Rider Fire. The fire ignited on the afternoon of August 2 on the Blanco/Hays County line.The fire crossed Highway 290 and had prompted evacuations in the area. Shortly after crossing 290 aviation resources applied retardent lines to slow fire spread, and crews were able to stop forward progression. Currently no evacuation orders are in place. Evacuation information can be found on the pages: Blanco County Office of Emergency Management Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BlancoCountyOEMHays County Office of Emergency Management Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HaysCountyOfficeOfEmergencyManagementTexas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with the local jurisdiction. The agency is responding with ground crews, firefighters and aircraft, including 1 air attack platform, 3 fire bosses, 3 single engine airtankers, 1 type 2 helicopter and 2 Texas Military Department Blackhawks. There is a Temporary Flight...

 This a type 3 incident managed by North East Washington Incident Management Type Three Team1.  The fire started on 8/3/2022 is 1886 acres.  Joint jurisdiction with WADNR and

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 8 17:58:01 UTC 2022.

 Friday August 5th Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance from Gorman Volunteer Fire Department for a wildfire located in Eastland County northeast of Gorman. Upon initial size up the fire is at 100 acres with moderate to extreme fire behavior, aircraft has been requested to assist ground resources with slowing the flanks and head of the fire. Dozers are engaging and have begun constructing containment line with holding support from engine crews.Texas A&M Forest Service is currently working in unified command with local responders and is utilizing air attack for support. Aircraft have made several beneficial drops and fire activity has dropped tremendously at this

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system,
if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days. This
system is expected to move generally westward into the central
Pacific basin by the middle portion of this week, where
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Oregon, as well as portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, Tuesday afternoon, and pose at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, models indicate that weak lower/mid tropospheric ridging will prevail across the western Atlantic into much of the Southeast through this period. At the same time, to the west, a mid-level high is forecast to become increasingly prominent near/east of the Rockies into much of the Great Plains, downstream of amplified mid-level troughing near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. While there will likely be little, if any, eastward progression of this larger-scale troughing, a fairly deep embedded mid-level low may migrate slowly north-northeastward offshore of the northern California/southern Oregon coast. Flow in the higher latitudes likely will remain more zonal and progressive. This is forecast to include one significant mid-level trough, with a couple of vigorous embedded smaller-scale perturbations, shifting east of the Canadian Prairies through the northern Ontario/Hudson Bay/western Quebec vicinity by 12Z Wednesday. A much more modest preceding perturbation is forecast to accelerate across and east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England into the northern Atlantic. This will be accompanied by the southward advancement of one surface cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley, and to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, offshore of New England into northern Mid Atlantic coast by late Tuesday night. The western flank of this front likely will stall across the lower Ohio into middle Mississippi Valleys, while a reinforcing front advances into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Plains. Moisture content will remain seasonably high along and to the south of the lead front, to the east of the Rockies, while monsoonal moisture will gradually advect around the southwestern periphery of the strengthening high, from the Southwest into the northern intermountain region, to the east of the developing low offshore of the Pacific coast. ...Northeast... Large-scale forcing for ascent along and ahead of the southward advancing front appears likely to remain generally modest to weak. However, strong heating of a moist boundary layer (temps rising into the 90s with surface dew points in the mid 60s to around 70F) may contribute to moderate CAPE (on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg) along the front and pre-frontal surface trough, inland of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England coast by Tuesday afternoon. It appears that this will be sufficient to support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Although deep-layer shear will be weak, model forecast soundings indicate southwesterly to westerly flow around 20 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. This may be enough, coupled with the fairly steep low-level lapse rates and potential heavy precipitation loading, to support the risk for a few potentially damaging wind gusts before storms weaken by Tuesday evening. ...Central Oregon (near/east of the Cascades)... Downstream (to the northeast of the approaching mid-level low), forcing for ascent is generally forecast to contribute to considerable thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Forecast soundings indicate that CAPE may remain limited to 500-1000 J/kg or less, but beneath 30-70 kt southerly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, strong deep-layer shear will be at least conditionally supportive of isolated supercells posing a risk to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2022 Read more

MD 1666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...NORTHWEST CT...WESTERN MA...AND SOUTHERN VT
Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Areas affected...Central/eastern NY...northwest CT...western MA...and southern VT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081658Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts with downbursts will be possible this afternoon, but the threat appears to be too marginal for a watch. DISCUSSION...To the east of a midlevel perturbation and thicker clouds over western NY, surface temperatures are warming into the upper 80s/near 90 F, with boundary-layer dewpoints holding in the lower 70s from central NY eastward. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg, with minimal convective inhibition. Weak ascent in advance of the subtle midlevel trough and continued surface heating/mixing will support widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Vertical shear is weak in the warm sector, but 20-30 kt westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support cells/multicell clusters that will spread eastward. Precipitation loading in the stronger updrafts, in combination with steepening low-level lapse rates and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will support the threat for a few strong downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Hart.. 08/08/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42047527 42267571 42727588 43087590 43487566 43807536 43967460 44067354 44087299 44047285 43497242 42877250 42257271 41827315 41607383 41957463 42047527 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur today from parts of southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana into western New England. ...MI/IN/OH... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough moving across Lake Superior into Ontario. The associated trailing cold front extends across northern Lower MI into northern IL. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a combination of dewpoints in the 70s and broken sunshine will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Most 12z model solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop later today as the cold front sags into southern Lower MI and northern IN/OH. Mid level lapse rates are weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient steering flow will pose some risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. ...NY/western New England... Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies this morning from central NY into much of central/southern New England. This area has already begun to show a considerable cu field, and is likely to develop into isolated thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Flow aloft is rather weak, but the strongest cells in this area may produce gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thompson.. 08/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning, but will become more numerous by mid/late afternoon. An increase in mid-level moisture was sampled in regional 12 UTC soundings with dry boundary-layer conditions noted along/east of the Cascades. These observed trends and latest ensemble guidance both support the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will dominate the Interior West as an upper low meanders off of the West Coast today. Monsoonal moisture will pivot northwestward around the periphery of the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest into the Pacific Northwest, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by afternoon. Across far southern Washington into central Oregon and extreme northern California/northwestern Nevada, many of the thunderstorms are expected to be high-based. Forecast soundings in this area by afternoon peak heating suggest that a very dry boundary layer will extend up to 500 mb amid precipitable water values around 0.75 inches. As such, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected to overspread modestly to highly receptive fuels, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights were also maintained across central/southern Oregon, where the latest high-resolution guidance consensus continues to depict the greatest concentration of thunderstorms. Lastly, high-resolution ensemble guidance shows relatively high potential for erratic and gusty winds (perhaps 30-45 kts) accompanying the stronger thunderstorms across the southern Cascades, which may exacerbate any new or pre-existing fire starts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this advisory. Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 14:35:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 15:23:39 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 6 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 29(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 ...HOWARD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 113.4W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 113.4 West. Howard is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west-northwest tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Howard is now forecast to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is anticipated to begin tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HOWARD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of Howard was located near 20.1, -113.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN