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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northwest U.S. as broad but weak cyclonic upper flow remains in place east of the Rockies today. Ahead of the mid-level trough, adequate lift and buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development, with at least isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. Fuel beds are receptive to wildfire spread on a spotty basis. However, the combination of dry strikes away from precipitation cores into dry fuel beds, and strong wind gusts exacerbating ongoing fires suggests that at least localized wildfire-spread concerns exist, especially along the Idaho/Montana border. Farther south across the northern Great Basin, locally Elevated dry and windy conditions are possible by afternoon peak heating. Please see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details on the severe threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO UPPER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe gusts and/or hail will be possible in a corridor from portions of the northern Rockies to the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Rockies to upper Mississippi Valley... Modest west-northwest mid-level flow will prevail from the Northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes through tonight. An upper low over WA will drift east, while a low-amplitude impulse over western MN moves slowly southeast. A surface front, extending from the MI Upper Peninsula west/southwest through western NE and southern MT, will serve as a focus for isolated severe potential as thunderstorms develop/intensify this afternoon. Two areas with potentially greater thunderstorm coverage remain evident, over portions of southeast MN/northern IA/southern WI associated with a weak surface low along the front over southern MN, and over western MT in association with the eastward-migrating upper low. Relatively greater boundary-layer moisture exists over IA/southern MN late this morning (surface dew points mid 60s), and this will contribute to pockets of moderate MLCAPE where heating can be maximized. Generally weak low/mid-level wind fields will result in effective shear below 30 kts, though this may support organized multicell structures capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail late this afternoon through early evening. Across western MT, steeper mid-level lapse rates will contribute moderate buoyancy, and effective shear values will average 30-40 kts. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, aided by post-frontal upslope flow and ascent with the approaching upper low. A mix of multicell and transient supercell storm modes is possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail with the strongest storms. A focused Slight Risk was considered over portions of western MT, however with existing cloud cover some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of destabilization and spatial extent of any greater severe threat. Elsewhere along the front, storm coverage is expected to be more isolated overall, though with perhaps slightly greater coverage in the upslope region of the Black Hills in western SD. A well-mixed boundary layer and marginal low-level moisture will support at least some risk for strong wind gusts. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 08/24/2022 Read more

Corn growers in southeast South Dakota have observed the corn curling and worry that the heat will reduce yield, preventing him from meeting his contracts. His corn yield is typically 170 to 180 bushels per acre, but hoped to be able to make 60 to 80 bpa. KELOLAND Media Group (Sioux Falls, S.D.), Aug. 3, 2022

Wichita is experiencing one of the driest summers on record, leaving many fields seared from the heat and lack of rain. Several crops failed, due to drought. Corn has been chopped for silage, and beans were being swathed and baled. Hay and pastures are suffering. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Aug 23, 2022

There were 186 restrictions on non-essential outdoor water use statewide, according to the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Drought continued to worsen in Massachusetts, despite recent rain. Many rivers and streams are at record low flows. Photos were presented to the State Drought Task Force documenting the low flow in the Charles River in Needham; exposed infrastructure and rock in Dedham; a dry fish ladder in the Jones River in Kingston; and shallow areas of the Blackstone River in Uxbridge where kayakers have to get out and walk. NBC Boston (Mass.), Aug 23, 2022

California’s State Water Resources Control Board warned Shasta River watershed farmers and ranchers in Northern California to stop diverting water. If the association does not request a hearing within 20 days, the order becomes final. The organization could be fined up to $10,000 daily. The diversions continued. On Aug. 17 and 18, the Shasta River flow fell to about half of the minimum emergency flow requirement of 50 cubic feet per second, per state data. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 24, 2022

The Klamath Irrigation District complied with a government order to end water deliveries to farmers in southern Oregon and Northern California. A federal official warned that millions in drought funding would be withheld if they did not close the canal. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 24, 2022 The Klamath Irrigation District is out of water, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, but the irrigation district’s water managers authorized the district’s manager to continue operations, as reported by Capital Press. The Bureau said that irrigators would receive 15% of full demand starting on April 15. If inflows to Upper Klamath Lake exceeded expectations, irrigators would receive 50% of the additional water. Precipitation was above average in May and June. Losing water at this point in the growing season could mean severely reduced alfalfa production and the loss of row crops like potatoes and onions. The Klamath Tribes sued the Bureau in May, claiming any water diverted from Upper Klamath Lake for irrigation in 2022 threatens the survival of suckers amid the drought. The Associated Press (New York), Aug 23, 2022

Klamath Basin farmers along the Oregon-California border learned from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation on Aug. 18 that they were at the end of their water from Upper Klamath Lake for the 2022 irrigation season. The executive director of the Klamath Water Users Association stated that irrigators were frustrated because they have gotten mixed messages about water delivery amounts this year. “There’s been just quite a lot of changing of information and expectations created and changed that have made this extremely troubling and not well received,” he said. The wet spring gave farmers hope that more irrigation water could be offered, but in the end, farmers received just 20%. Crops may die prematurely this season. Oregon Public Broadcasting (Portland, Ore.), Aug 19, 2022

Water use restrictions were in place in Connecticut to conserve water amid the drought. East Lyme officials enacted mandatory, twice-weekly irrigation schedule for residents and businesses as of Aug. 15. The Aquarion Water Company issued a mandatory water conservation schedule for its customers through Oct. 31. The Connecticut Water Company and Regional Water Authority of New Haven asked customers to curb their water use by 15% and 10%, respectively. Norwich Public Utilities urged its customers to “make reasonable adjustments to their water use" while drought persists. A water usage restriction was also issued in Putnam to discourage car washing and lawn watering. CT News Junkie (Hartford, Conn.), Aug. 23, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 23 17:41:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 23 17:41:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Burke

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. Isolated dry thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of central into eastern NV during the afternoon, though current indications are that fuels are generally not receptive to wildfire spread over this area. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will prevail across the eastern U.S., while the western CONUS will remain under the influence of weak upper ridging tomorrow/Wednesday. A weak mid-level cutoff low will also meander around the northern Rockies to the north of the upper ridge. South of this upper low, locally dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of far southeast Oregon into northern and central Nevada around afternoon peak heating. A greater concentration of dry thunderstorms is also likely across portions of the northern Rockies (particularly central into eastern Idaho) compared to Day 1. As in Day 1 though, dry thunderstorm highlights were withheld given questionable fuel receptiveness to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Wednesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A flattened mid- to upper-level ridge will reside over the Four Corners while a weak upper low remains over the Pacific Northwest. A subtle shortwave trough is expected to move northeastward in the corridor between the upper ridging and upper low, moving across northern NV/southern ID into southwest MT. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper Midwest... A weak area of low pressure will gradually move east across southern MN during the day while an attendant cool front becomes draped from NE and becoming more diffuse over parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated across southern MN, northern/central IA, and eastern NE along the cold front. Weak vertical shear will limit storm intensity. Some additional thunderstorm development is possible over eastern WY, where low-level convergence between the post-frontal easterly flow and the lee trough is maximized. Vertical shear will be slightly stronger here compared to areas farther east, largely as a result of low-level easterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft. Model guidance continues to indicate instability will be modest, thereby tempering the risk for strong/locally severe thunderstorms. Perhaps the area with the highest relative concern for a stronger thunderstorm will be over parts of western MT. Strong gusty winds may accompany the more intense thunderstorms during the early evening. ...Southeast... A convectively augmented shortwave trough and attendant surface low will continue to slowly drift eastward across the Southeast states, with numerous thunderstorms expected over the region throughout the day. Uncertainty remains high whether mesoscale enhancement to the wind profile will occur in a very moist airmass. ..Smith.. 08/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... While broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail east of the Rockies, and a mid-level shortwave trough impinges on the West Coast today, deep-layer winds/forcing should be weak, with dry and windy conditions expected to remain constrained to terrain-favoring areas. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, several of the storms are expected to be wet. Spotty fuel beds may support isolated lightning-induced ignitions. However, many earlier fire starts have yet to grow rapidly, suggesting that fuels are modestly receptive at best to significant wildfire spread. As such, dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON PARTS OF AZ...ND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening, centered on portions of Arizona, North Dakota, and southern New England. ...Lower CO Valley to south-central AZ... Full insolation this morning in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will yield a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg south of the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Rim and drift to the south-southwest within a belt of 10-15 kt 500-600 mb flow. Localized severe gusts will be possible as convection spreads into the lower deserts including the greater Phoenix metro area. The lack of stronger shear should limit potential for a more organized severe wind event. ...Central/northern ND... 16Z surface analysis placed a couple of 1013-mb lows near the MT/ND border and the SK/MB/ND border along a weak quasi-stationary front. A minor mid-level vort max attendant to the latter wave should drift southeast, aiding in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon across northern to central ND. A compact belt of enhanced upper-level flow may be adequate for a couple stronger cells given moderate mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Bismarck sounding. These cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and localized strong to marginally severe gusts. ...Southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms are underway across the Hudson Valley downstream of a mid-level trough centered on the Upper St. Lawrence Valley, with more isolated activity farther south. Boundary-layer heating has been more robust across the Tri-State area in the NYC vicinity, with stratus still holding across most of MA/RI. This should result in a confined corridor having a modest combination of buoyancy and mid-level flow over southern New England. In this area, a few wet microbursts capable of locally damaging winds are possible through the rest of the afternoon. ..Grams/Wendt.. 08/23/2022 Read more

Dover's city manager ordered a citywide ban on outdoor water use as of Aug. 22. The mandatory ban was enacted to "ensure an adequate and sustainable water supply throughout the city into the fall and winter months." Prohibited activities include automatic lawn watering and the use of sprinklers, vehicle washing and the filling of pools with a capacity of 100 gallons or more. Foster’s Daily Democrat (Dover, N.H.), Aug 22, 2022

More than 531,000 acres of farmland in California were estimated to have been left unplanted, due to drought and inadequate water supplies. When farmers cannot plant, farm laborers, processing and distribution centers, harvesters, drivers and others have less work. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), Aug 22, 2022

The U.S. is expected to harvest 7.13 million acres of cotton, its lowest number since the 19th century, according to a USDA estimate. USDA’s Aug. 12 report forecast that about 43% of the planted cotton acres in the U.S. are expected to be abandoned this year, largely due to intense drought in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Texas is forecast to abandon 69% of its cotton acreage this year. Planted acreage in Texas was 7.1 million, and the expected harvest is to occur on 2.2 million, the lowest since 1879. Delta Farm Press (Memphis, Tenn.), Aug 22, 2022