Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A relatively dry airmass is forecast across much of the continental United States on Thursday. Strong moisture advection will likely develop across the southern Plains on Friday as an upper-level trough digs southeastward into the Four Corners region. As the system approaches the south-central states, isolated severe storms may develop Friday night in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks, near the northern edge of a moist airmass. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 60s F appear likely from east Texas into parts of Arkansas where moderate instability could be in place by midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development appears likely during the day from east Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The progressive nature of the trough, along with strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level moisture, will favor severe thunderstorm development. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The models are now in good agreement concerning this scenario, and a 15 percent contour has been added for Saturday in parts of east Texas, northwestern Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex. The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly through the Southeast on Sunday, and then move northeastward into the Northeast on Monday. Although instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized. The potential for severe storms appears to be reduced on Monday. However, an isolated severe threat could still develop across parts of the eastern U.S., especially if the system ends up being slower than forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A relatively dry airmass is forecast across much of the continental United States on Thursday. Strong moisture advection will likely develop across the southern Plains on Friday as an upper-level trough digs southeastward into the Four Corners region. As the system approaches the south-central states, isolated severe storms may develop Friday night in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks, near the northern edge of a moist airmass. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 60s F appear likely from east Texas into parts of Arkansas where moderate instability could be in place by midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development appears likely during the day from east Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The progressive nature of the trough, along with strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level moisture, will favor severe thunderstorm development. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The models are now in good agreement concerning this scenario, and a 15 percent contour has been added for Saturday in parts of east Texas, northwestern Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex. The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly through the Southeast on Sunday, and then move northeastward into the Northeast on Monday. Although instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized. The potential for severe storms appears to be reduced on Monday. However, an isolated severe threat could still develop across parts of the eastern U.S., especially if the system ends up being slower than forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A relatively dry airmass is forecast across much of the continental United States on Thursday. Strong moisture advection will likely develop across the southern Plains on Friday as an upper-level trough digs southeastward into the Four Corners region. As the system approaches the south-central states, isolated severe storms may develop Friday night in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks, near the northern edge of a moist airmass. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 60s F appear likely from east Texas into parts of Arkansas where moderate instability could be in place by midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development appears likely during the day from east Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The progressive nature of the trough, along with strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level moisture, will favor severe thunderstorm development. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The models are now in good agreement concerning this scenario, and a 15 percent contour has been added for Saturday in parts of east Texas, northwestern Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex. The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly through the Southeast on Sunday, and then move northeastward into the Northeast on Monday. Although instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized. The potential for severe storms appears to be reduced on Monday. However, an isolated severe threat could still develop across parts of the eastern U.S., especially if the system ends up being slower than forecast. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday near the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and across far eastern North Carolina, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina around midday as the trough approaches the coast. Another upper-level trough is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon and northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. Northerly flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico will suppress moisture return. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. Northerly flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico will suppress moisture return. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. Northerly flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico will suppress moisture return. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. Northerly flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico will suppress moisture return. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm activity is expected across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Plains. Northerly flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico will suppress moisture return. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 12/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION SPELLING ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION SPELLING ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION SPELLING ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION SPELLING ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR LOCATION SPELLING ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the central and western US on Monday, with a dry cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures across much of the Plains. Weakening westerly gradients will give way to lighter southerly winds, with higher afternoon relative humidity across the central and southern Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low on Monday. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will shift east across the Rockies on Tuesday, keeping primarily light winds across much of the central and western CONUS. Light winds and cool temperatures in combination with moist fuels across much of the US will keep fire weather concerns low. Building high pressure across the Great Basin will lead to offshore flow across portions of Southern California Monday into Tuesday. Gradients will peak overnight, weakening through the day Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where fuels are the driest across the foothills in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more