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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of central Texas centered on 3 to 7 PM CDT. ...Central Texas... A mid-level low will drift southwestward across far southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas through tonight. The western fringe of relatively cooler mid-level temperatures in conjunction with a belt of 15-25 kt mid-level northerlies should overlap a confined corridor of low to mid 60s surface dew points near the intersection of a diffuse surface front and dryline. Within this regime, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in the mid to late afternoon. Marginally severe hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be possible until convection begins to weaken by around sunset. ...Midwest to Appalachians... Cloud breaks and a moist air mass (near 70F dewpoints) will be conducive for moderate destabilization across the Lower Ohio Valley, although weak wind profiles should keep any stronger storms of a pulse-type character with limited severe potential. Farther east, modestly stronger low/mid-level southwesterly winds will reside near and in the windward side of the Appalachians through tonight. However, insolation will be limited by the generally prevalent nature of existing cloud cover and precipitation. A bit more insolation/destabilization could occur across northern/eastern Georgia into South Carolina/western North Carolina this afternoon. A few stronger storms could occur in this region, but organized severe potential is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/05/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the northern Rockies for today as a winds increase within a hot/dry boundary layer. A belt of strong mid-level flow is expected to shift from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies over the next 24 hours as a low-amplitude upper wave shifts into western Canada. This will support a breezy and dry downslope wind regime across parts of ID into central/northern MT where fuels continue to cure after several days of hot conditions. ...Northern Montana to North Dakota... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected from north-central MT into far western ND this afternoon. A surface low/lee trough is evident across the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairies in early-morning surface observations/analyses. This feature will shift east through the day in tandem with the upper disturbance, establishing a westerly downslope wind regime across much of MT. Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will help downward transfer of strengthening mid-level flow as RH values fall into the teens and low 20s. Sustained winds near 15 mph will be accompanied by frequent gusts between 20-30 mph. Brief periods of critical conditions are possible, but confidence in the duration/coverage of 20+ mph winds remains low. Recent fire activity across the region indicates that fuels remain receptive and will support the fire weather threat. A cold front is expected to push across north/northeast MT during the overnight hours, bringing a wind shift to the north/northwest. ...Idaho... The 00 UTC BOI sounding sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH near 12%. With little moisture flux into the region expected over the next 24 hours, similar low-level thermodynamic conditions are anticipated for this afternoon. Strong diurnal heating through the Snake River Plain will support deep boundary-layer mixing and RH reductions into the low teens (and possibly single digits) by mid afternoon. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph may occasionally gust to 25 mph. Elevated conditions appear likely, and brief/localized periods of critical conditions are possible. ...Northwest NV into southern OR... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon from far northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR. Widespread RH reductions below 15% are likely with pockets of breezy winds between 15-20 mph. With the stronger synoptic pressure gradients shifting to the east away from the region through the day, such winds will most likely be confined to the vicinity of terrain features, limiting confidence in a more widespread fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Sawtell Peak Fire was reported Wednesday, August 31 2022 at 1322. The fire is located on the Ashton/Island Park Ranger District on the Caribou-Targhee NF.  Wyoming Type 3 Team 5 took command of the fire Friday, September 2.  A forest closure order was put in place September 3, 2022. The  Forest Order can be found on the forest

The grapes were smaller at a vineyard north of Lincoln, and the volume was certainly down, but the flavors were expected to be better. The co-owner and vintner hoped that the wine will turn out to be incredible.

FINAL UPDATE The Route Fire is 5,208-acres (approx. 330-acres on Forest Service land) with 91% containment south of Castaic Lake near northbound I-5 Freeway and Lake Hughes Road. The brush fire started at 12:01 p.m. on August 31, 2022, and is under unified command or jointly managed by LA County Fire Department and CAL FIRE.Over the next several days, the fire will be patrolled and monitored for hot spots.  All evacuation orders have been lifted. To stay-up-date on road closures,

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 4 17:38:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 4 17:38:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a couple of hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper anticyclone will persist over much of the western CONUS on Monday. Compared to prior days, weak large-scale ascent should limit overall convective potential to mainly terrain-driven circulations across the Four Corners region to the Mogollon Rim, and parts of the Sierra Mountains into the Coastal Ranges of southern CA. While strong/gusty winds may occur with any convection that can develop, overall sparse thunderstorm coverage precludes any severe wind probabilities. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad portion of the central and eastern states extending from parts of the southern Plains to the Northeast, mainly Monday afternoon and evening. Weak upper troughing should extend from the ArkLaTex region northeastward to the OH Valley and Great Lakes. Generally weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is anticipated east of this feature across the warm sector, which should limit thunderstorm organization. Poor mid-level lapse rates should also temper instability across much of these regions, with moderate to perhaps strong instability developing along/south of a weak front that should be draped across parts of north/central TX. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any convection that develops, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms still appears low. ..Gleason.. 09/04/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible during the late afternoon to early evening over parts of the Desert Southwest along with southeast Oklahoma and North Texas. ...Desert Southwest... With a moist air mass remaining across the region, strong boundary layer heating and orographic influences will again yield isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening. This will include a corridor from northwest Arizona, far southern Nevada into interior southern California. A belt of moderately strong easterly winds will persist on the southern periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper ridge, which will support a west-southwestward movement of some potentially semi-organized storms. A well-mixed boundary layer will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts from the late afternoon into early/mid-evening. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas... A southward-sagging front along with different heating/outflow will focus renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon. With 15-25 kt mid-level north/northwesterly winds, weakly organized clusters may congeal and spread south in north Texas with a threat for locally strong to severe wind gusts given surface temperatures in the 90s F. Storms will weaken towards/after sunset as the boundary layer cools and MLCIN increases. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/04/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... Two upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move over the ridge centered in the Great Basin today, acting to deamplify the upper-level high pressure. The first small and compact shortwave over northwestern Montana this morning is forecast to weaken and move eastward across northern Montana and North Dakota throughout the day. The second shortwave, currently off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to move into British Columbia and Washington state by the end of the day. In response at the surface, a low-pressure trough is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains. Ahead of these shortwave troughs, a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected from northeastern California east-northeastward across Montana. The environment across this region will be characterized by hot, dry, and well-mixed boundary layers yielding critical RH values in the presence of enhanced flow aloft. The best overlap of strong winds (>20 mph) and critical RH values is in the vicinity of the California/Nevada/Oregon border, so a focused critical area has been delineated across that region. Farther east ahead of the surface pressure trough, critical south-southeasterly winds are likely across the western Dakotas, but RH values may be a limiting factor with surface dewpoints only mixing into the mid-to-upper 40s F. Nevertheless, this different fire-weather regime compared to areas farther west should also lead to elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

In the afternoon of August 21, 2022, the Trout Fire was detected during district fire patrol. The Trout Fire is located within the Selkirk Mountain Range on the Bonners Ferry Ranger District of the Idaho Panhandle National Forests. It is approximately 10 miles southwest of Copeland Idaho near Trout Creek and it was determined to be caused by lightning. Due to the fire being situated in an old burn scar, snags and heavy downed-fuels is the chief safety concern for firefighters working on the ground. Fire Managers are strategizing methods for fire suppression and no structures are at risk. There are no evacuations at this time. However, when living in fire prone areas it is recommended that all area residents have an evacuation plan in place including having all important documents, pictures, prescriptions, and pets gathered up and easily transportable. Residents of Boundary County, ID can visit https://www.nixle.com or text home zip code to 888777 to sign up for emergency

The Eneas Peak Fire, confirmed on August 13th, was started by lightning and is visible from the Kootenai River Valley and most of the Bonners Ferry area.  The fire is located approximately 15 miles north-northwest of Bonners Ferry, on the south aspect below Eneas Peak and above Fisher Creek. The terrain is steep and inaccessible (60%-80% slopes), with numerous dead and downed trees. These conditions prevent the use of firefighter direct attack tactics where fireline is built directly next to the fire. Fire managers are assessing the area by air and ground for potential confinement lines. Currently, no evacuations are in place and structures are not threatened. However, when living in fire prone areas it is recommended that all area residents have an evacuation plan in place including having all important documents, pictures, prescriptions, and pets gathered up and easily transportable.  Residents of Boundary County, ID can visit https://www.nixle.com or text home zip code to 888777...

The Russell Mountain Fire was reported early afternoon on August 24, 2022. It is located within the Selkirk Mountain Range on the Bonners Ferry Ranger District of the Idaho Panhandle National Forests. It is approximately 10 miles southwest of Copeland Idaho, near the Ball Creek drainage and burning on a southern aspect. There are currently no values at risk and it's current strategy management is confine and contain. There are no evacuations at this time. However, when living in fire prone areas it is recommended that all area residents have an evacuation plan in place including having all important documents, pictures, prescriptions, and pets gathered up and easily transportable. Residents of Boundary County, ID can visit https://www.nixle.com or text home zip code to 888777 to sign up for emergency

   Idaho Panhandle National Forests Inciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8374/                              https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8338/ https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8356/                             https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8360/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/USFSIPNF   Public Information Phone: (208) 557-8813 Boundary County Emergency Line: (208) 696-2629 District Fact Sheets will be provided if a significant event occurs.   Location: Bonners Ferry, Idaho Name of Fire Start Date Size (Acres) Cause Containment Eneas Peak August 13, 2022 1,123 Lightning 0% Trout August 21, 2022 678 Lightning 0% Russell Mountain August 24, 2022 3,107 Lightning 0% Scotch September 1, 2022 494 Lightning `0%   Last night, a reconnaissance flight checked the status of existing fires. The Eneas Peak fire grew 178 acres;...

Bonners Ferry Ranger District Katka Fire Fact Sheet  Friday, September 2, 2022Idaho Panhandle National Forests, Bonners Ferry Ranger DistrictInciweb: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8373/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/USFSIPNFPublic Information Phone: (208) 557-8813Boundary County Emergency Line: (208) 696-2629Fire Name:  Katka Fire       Location:  Bonners Ferry, IdahoStarted:  August 31, 2022       Cause: LightningSize:  35 Acres                       Containment:   0% Aerial detection identified several new fire starts resulting from Wednesday’s weather system, including the Katka Fire.  The fire is burning near Katka Peak in very steep terrain. Crews continue responding to multiple fires on the District and prioritizing resources based upon values at risk. Fires currently burning in the Selkirk Mountains are being reported in another Fact Sheet.Significant aerial efforts Thursday on the Katka Fire (including use of large air tankers, FireBoss...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:36:22 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 694 WTPZ42 KNHC 041448 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the system's west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to 5 days. Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high, and SSTs sufficently warm. However, the large size of the system and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico. 2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi