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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.0, -101.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 395 WTPZ22 KNHC 041447 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

The Boulder Mountain Fire started by lightning on Wednesday August 31, 2022 at approximately 8:30 pm. The fire is located in the Tacoma Creek and Boulder Mountain area northwest of Cusick, Washington. The fire is burning on Federal, State and Private land. The terrain is difficult and the fire is burning in heavy timber, slash, and beetle infested trees. The Northeast Washington Interagency Incident Management Team Type 3 Team 2 has assumed command of the fire as of this morning.  The fire is in an area that is difficult to reach with crews at this time. The primary objective today is scouting and shoring up road systems to the fire and creating additional access points. Air resources will continue to be in the area and assist crews on the ground to work areas that need immediate attention. There are level 3 evacuation orders in place. The fire is approximately 2000 acres and is 0% contained.  With the Labor Day weekend upon us we ask that the public stay out of the area. There are...

Many of Boston's homes and landmarks were built on wood pilings driven deep into the ground, a European method of construction. The pilings can fail to support buildings when they dry out and decay as is occurring amid this drought. The pilings remain strong as long as they are submerged, but many of the city’s 813 monitoring wells indicated drops in water levels, with 31 at their lowest level on record. A short period of decay should not cause immediate damage to a building, according to experts. But significant problems can begin to occur in as little as three years when rotted pilings allow a building to settle and crack. The Boston Globe (Mass.), Sept. 3, 2022

Water restrictions in Massachusetts mean that many sports fields were not being watered, leaving them harder, drier and less safe. Worn, dry grass fields can also be damaged from use. CBS Boston (Mass.), Sept 2, 2022

Rockland County extended its stage II water emergency, which originally took effect on Aug. 18. Among the water restrictions, restaurant patrons must ask for water. NBC New York, Sept. 3, 2022

The Suffolk County Water Authority announced on Sept. 2 that it had extended its water emergency order to all of its 1.2 million customers, due to severe drought. The Stage 1 Water Emergency reaches from the Nassau/Suffolk border to Montauk, according to the SCWA. Only its East End customers had been affected by the original declaration issued in early August. Now all SCWA customers are urged to stop non-essential water uses and to avoid lawn watering between 12 a.m. and 7 a.m., which is the time the water system is usually most stressed. NBC New York, Sept. 3, 2022

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 115.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito * The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 115.4 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today, and then turn away from the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area and are possible in portions of the watch area through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 17:42:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 15:46:17 GMT

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 3 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 3 17:40:02 UTC 2022.

The town of Strasburg declared a drought watch and urged residents to conserve water voluntarily. The low river flow caused the town to observe the drought response plan as outlined by the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Water Supply and the Virginia Water Protection withdrawal permit issued by the Department of Environmental Quality. The River 95.3 WZRV (Front Royal, Va.), Sept. 3, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will deamplify somewhat tomorrow as a mid-level shortwave traverses the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Farther east, a slow-moving upper-level low will continue to slowly drift east through the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected in much of the moist sector, extending from most of Texas and the Southeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. An even greater concentration of thunderstorms is likely near and east of the upper-level low across the Ohio Valley. However, wind shear will remain weak across the warm sector. Therefore, storm organization should be minimal. ...Portions of the Desert Southwest... Some thunderstorms will likely develop and move off the higher terrain across portions of Northwest Arizona Sunday afternoon/evening. Weak to moderate instability amid 30 knots of mid-level easterly flow should provide an environment favorable for a few strong to severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds, particularly with any clusters which may develop and move across the Colorado River Valley. ...Northern/Central Texas... There is some signal in convective allowing guidance for a potential cluster/southward moving line of storms across central Texas. A cold front will be moving south through this region which could provide the focus for more concentrated convection, and forecast MLCAPE will be around 2000-2500 J/kg. However, wind shear will be very weak and therefore, organized severe convection is not anticipated. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located about 100 miles west of the south-central
portion of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located just off the coast
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and
interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC,
and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Interior Southern CA to northwest AZ... Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated over interior southern CA and northwest AZ along the northern edge of a deep moisture plume. Although the stronger midlevel flow will reside farther south near the international border, slightly stronger mid-level easterly flow averaging 25 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will result in an environment conducive for isolated strong/severe wind gusts. ...Northern/west-central OK to far southern KS... Increasing frontal convergence and minimal CINH will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by early evening along a slow-moving surface front. RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict a deep/well-mixed atmosphere and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Within this environment, an isolated stronger storm will be capable of producing strong/potentially severe gusts. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys... An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon/early evening east of a weak midlevel trough. Despite poor lapse rates, a very moist environment and modestly enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) may yield a few storms capable of wet microbursts, especially where breaks in cloud cover result in locally greater buoyancy. Storms should diminish in intensity as the evening progresses. ..Bunting/Gleason.. 09/03/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON...FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous outlook below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... A progressive shortwave trough, evident in water-vapor imagery moving into northern California, will usher in strong winds to the northern Great Basin this afternoon. This will regionally bolster the fire weather potential after several days of hot/dry weather. Fire weather concerns are also expected to the east across the northern High Plains as gradient winds increase through the day over a region with dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin... The jet axis associated with the northern CA shortwave trough is expected to shift across the northern Sierra Nevada into central ID through peak heating. The phasing of increasing 800-700 mb winds with deep boundary-layer mixing will support 15-25 mph winds at the surface with frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. Poor overnight RH recovery is noted across the northern Great Basin early this morning, and afternoon highs near 100 F are expected again this afternoon. Consequently, diurnal RH minimums near 5-15% are likely and will support widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Fire activity across the region, supported by recent fuel analyses, lend further credence to the fire weather threat. ...Northern High Plains... Troughing in the lee of the northern Rockies will support increasing southeasterly gradient winds across eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Sustained winds near 15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph, are likely. Combined with RH reductions into the low/mid teens, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a large swath of the northern High Plains. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Advected PWAT satellite imagery shows a plume of 700-500 mb moisture quickly advancing northward ahead of the northern CA shortwave trough. Strong ascent ahead of the wave will help steepen lapse rates and aid in ascent across WA into far western MT by this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings hint that adequate buoyancy for convection atop a dry boundary-layer will limit precipitation accumulations and favor isolated dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuel status across most of the region, a dry-lightning fire weather concern remains likely for today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 the center of Javier was located near 25.8, -115.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70 degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a remnant within two days. The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 705 WTPZ21 KNHC 031448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 114.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

 The Sutton fire held at 108 acres and is 95% contained. The official closure order for the area, roads, and trails in the vicinity of the fire has been terminated and the area is now open. Please use caution if in the area as it is a burned area that may contain potential hazards including loose rocks, falling trees and limbs, flash flooding and debris flows. Portions of the trail may be damaged or blocked with