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On September 7, 2022, at 1:30 p.m. a fire was reported to the Agency. The fire is located at T63N, R9W, Section 35–southeast of Lake Three and north of Horseshoe Lake in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. In response, two Beaver float plans began aerial suppression. The fire is estimated at 10 acres. Suppression strategies continue to use aerial water delivery with Beaver aircraft. An upcoming cold front is bringing cooler temperatures, some precipitation and less winds to reassess if conditions are safer to allow firefighters to begin ground suppression. Public safety crews are in the area. Firefighter and public safety are the number on priorities.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track for the Northwest. In addition, the latest guidance consensus depicts locally Elevated/Critical conditions across much of central and eastern Utah into western Wyoming as a surface cold front sweeps across the area. The dry and breezy northwesterly surface winds should be strongest in mainly terrain-favoring areas though, precluding the introduction of any fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will shift eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through the period. On the backside of the trough, a belt of enhanced northwesterly midlevel flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies. As a result, high pressure will strengthen over the northern Rockies, while an elongated area of surface low pressure extends northward along the West Coast. ...Northwest... An enhanced surface pressure gradient between the high pressure over the northern Rockies and low pressure along the West Coast will result in an expansive area of sustained east-northeasterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (with locally higher gusts) across much of the Northwest. The breezy/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-20 percent minimum RH, will lead to elevated fire-weather conditions given receptive fuels across the region. Strong surface winds are expected to persist within the Cascade gaps into Day 2/Saturday morning, where poor overnight RH recoveries are forecast owing to the persistent offshore flow pattern. While locally critical conditions will be possible primarily over terrain-favored areas along the Cascades, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 516 FOPZ12 KNHC 091452 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) S CATALINA IS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN DIEGO CA 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) TIJUANA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) IS GUADALUPE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 307 WTPZ42 KNHC 091453 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Kay is gradually becoming less organized. There is currently minimal convection near its center of circulation, although there is a complex of convective bands occurring about 75-150 n mi north of the center. Doppler radar data from Yuma and San Diego has shown winds as high as 60 kt aloft, although it is unclear how well these winds are mixing down to the surface. Based on the radar and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, and this could be a bit generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Kay. Kay should continue to weaken as it reaches sea surface temperatures of 20-21C by 24 h, and the dynamical model suggest it should stop producing convection near or just after that time. The new intensity forecast shows the cyclone as a minimal tropical storm in 24 h, followed by decay to a remnant low as the convection dissipates and the winds drop below tropical-storm force. The global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate between 96-120 h, and the new intensity forecast follows this. The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/ 11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Kay is expected to cause the cyclone to gradually turn west-northwestward away from land in the next 12 h, followed by a westward turn between 12-24 h. After that time, low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific should steer the remnant low slowly southward and then southeastward before the system dissipates completely. There was little change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Although Kay's intensity has decreased, the tropical cyclone 34-kt wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning today, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning today in Arizona and southern Nevada. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 091452 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF PUERTO LIBERTAD...FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 116.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Residents of Portsmouth, Rhode Island have noticed a change in the water's taste and odor. The water quality may have changed due to conservation amid drought, more contaminants after rain, more treatment chemicals, more algal growth or other factors. The Newport Daily News (R.I.), Sept. 8, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 18:01:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 15:35:59 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 081800 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 114.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Todos Santos. * San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border * North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in thisd case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 114.1 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning during the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 12:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 the center of Kay was located near 26.6, -114.1 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, which is near the central Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 8 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 8 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast and Southwest on Friday, with a risk for occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Southeast... A weak upper trough/low should remain centered over the lower MS Valley on Friday. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow is forecast to be present on the east side of the upper low, mainly over parts of FL into southern GA and SC. A seasonably moist airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, will likely exist across these areas along/south of a weak front. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining poor, daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to moderate instability through Friday afternoon, with greater instability forecast with southward extent across the FL Peninsula. Most guidance indicates that thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps extending into parts of north/central FL. Current expectations are for loosely organized convective clusters to spread generally east/northeastward across much of FL through the day, and into southern GA and coastal SC through Friday night. With generally modest deep-layer shear around 30 kt or less, multicells should be the main convective mode. Occasional damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores, particularly where low-level lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating. A brief tornado also appears possible, mainly near the weak front as thunderstorms cross this boundary. ...Southwest... Hurricane Kay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move slowly north-northwestward Friday near the northern Baja Peninsula while gradually weakening. Consensus of 12Z guidance shows that enhanced low/mid-level east-southeasterly winds will overspread parts of southern CA/AZ through the day. Even with widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness present over these areas, it appears possible that filtered daytime heating may allow weak instability to develop on the eastern periphery of the broad precipitation shield. If even modest instability can be realized Friday afternoon, then the strong low-level flow and related 0-1 km SRH would favor updraft organization with any low-topped cells that can form in an outer rain/convective band. High-resolution guidance shows some variability on whether this scenario occurs. Regardless, opted to include low severe probabilities for strong/gusty convective winds and a brief tornado across a small part of southern CA and southwestern AZ given the favorable kinematic fields that are forecast. ..Gleason.. 09/08/2022 Read more

August runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa fell to 0.9 million acre-feet, which is 62% of average, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Runoff for all of 2022 is predicted to be 20.2 million acre-feet, or 78% of average. Runoff into South Dakota’s Oahe Reservoir was just 10% of average in August. Fort Peck Dam is expected to lower its releases to 4,000 cubic feet per second by mid-September, down from 7,800 cfs. Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam on the South Dakota border with Nebraska will be 12,000 cfs to conserve water. Power generation is projected to be 7.3 billion kilowatt hours in 2022, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kilowatt hours. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Sept 7, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... Minimal changes where made to the ongoing forecast based on observations and ensemble guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for areas west of the Cascade crest very late in the period as the surface high intensifies in the Northwest/northern Rockies. The main impacts from these offshore winds are still expected to occur on Friday when wind speeds will peak, however. ..Wendt.. 09/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to strengthen today as high pressure is broken down over the Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow will spill eastward into the central/northern Rockies and over the High Plains. A lee low over the eastern Plains is expected to strengthen, dragging a cold front south through WY and the Dakotas. Moderate flow aloft and increasing surface pressure gradients driven by the low will support strong surface wind fields across the central Rockies and High Plains into tonight. With unseasonably hot temperatures and very dry fuels, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected. ...Central Idaho... As the upper trough continues eastward, moderate flow aloft will linger across central ID behind a cold front. Gusty west winds will develop across the central Rockies and the Snake River Valley, with gusts to 25 mph possible this afternoon and evening. While temperatures will be cooler behind the front, poor overnight humidity recoveries will allow for low diurnal RH values of 15-20%. Fuels remain extremely dry and recent lightning/fire activity lends high confidence to critical fire weather concerns given the favorable RH and wind combinations. ...Wyoming onto the central High Plains... Ahead of the cold front near the surface low, winds are forecast to reach 20-30 mph in the afternoon across portions of eastern CO, NE and southeastern SD. Very hot daytime temperatures should support low afternoon humidity values below 20% along with the strong wind gusts. Widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions appear likely given very dry fuels. Farther north across central NE and portions of northern CO, the lower humidity may be short lived as the cold front quickly moves south. Some fire weather risk may linger for a few hours behind the front given gusty winds near the surface low. While humidity values should quickly begin to rise, the strong wind shift and very dry fuels may still allow for a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns following frontal passage. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may also develop near and behind the cold front across portions of central and eastern WY. Initially dry, a few lightning strikes and strong outflow winds are possible through the afternoon and early evening. Storm coverage is expected to be relatively low, and strong forcing from the upper trough should eventually support more widespread rainfall limiting the risk for dry strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WYOMING/BLACK HILLS...FLORIDA...AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this evening into the overnight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Florida, the middle Texas Coast, as well as Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity during the mid to late afternoon. ...Upper Midwest... No changes warranted for this region. Low/mid-level warm advection is expected from a stout upstream EML regime, emanating from where record high temperatures have been set in prior days over a large portion of the interior West. This, in combination with a return-flow process that lacks robust connection to the western Gulf and therefore limits rich boundary-layer moisture, should keep an impinging cold front capped from thunderstorm development through late afternoon. By evening, mid-level height falls should overspread the front in advance of a broad upper trough reaching the Prairie Provinces to northern Great Plains. Strengthening low-level convergence and low-level arm/moist advection may provide sufficient ascent to weaken the EML and yield isolated thunderstorms initially from west-central to northeast Minnesota. Some guidance suggest this process will be more pronounced overnight and thus displaced southward. Regardless, convection is most likely to be rooted on and to the cool side of the southeast-progressing cold front. Deep-layer winds will largely be stronger deeper into the stable air mass away from the immediate front, but still adequate to support rotating updrafts amid moderate elevated buoyancy. Isolated large hail is the primary threat, but locally damaging winds from strong gusts are possible. ...Wyoming/Black Hills vicinity... The trailing portion of a cold front will move south from eastern Montana into northern Wyoming this afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of far southern Montana and northwest/north-central Wyoming and then spread east-southeast. Moisture will be poor with surface dewpoints generally in the 30s F, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates should support meager MLCAPE to around 300 J/kg. High-based, skeletal convection may produce isolated severe gusts, augmented by momentum transport from strengthening mid-level winds, and small hail. This threat should diminish rapidly near sunset. ...Central/south Florida Peninsula... To the east of a low centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico, scattered, semi-organized, slow-moving thunderstorms will move across the Florida Peninsula through late afternoon and evening. While low/mid-level winds are not overly strong, ample veering and as much as 20-25 kt effective shear may support a couple of weak/transient supercells, and more prevalently, semi-organized linear segments otherwise. A localized severe storm or two could occur mainly through the afternoon. ...Middle Texas coast/South-Central Texas... In a somewhat similar regime to yesterday across east Texas, modestly enhanced northerly winds aloft in conjunction with moderate buoyancy could yield a few stronger storms this afternoon, with localized wind damage the most probable hazard. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/08/2022 Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 081443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Kay. Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That, along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between 48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast later this morning through this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 081443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TIJUANA 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ENSENADA 34 3 8(11) 16(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 63 15(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 21 20(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ABREOJOS 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) P ABREOJOS 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GUAYMAS 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HUATABAMPO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 170 WTPZ22 KNHC 081442 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 113.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN