Tropical Depression Madeline Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Madeline Public Advisory Number 12

2 years 10 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Madeline Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... ...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.0W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Madeline was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward later this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Madeline Forecast Advisory Number 12

2 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201442 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster

Drought factored in to the high cost of alfalfa, feed in Wyoming

2 years 10 months ago
Drought has cut alfalfa yields and driven up feed prices from $100 per ton a couple of years ago to $300 per tons at present. The scarcity and cost of feed has prompted many cattle producers to ship their cattle to feed lots earlier than usual. Cowboy State Daily (Lander, Wyo.), Sept 13, 2022

Oklahoma governor signed executive order for drought relief

2 years 10 months ago
Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt issued an executive order on Sept. 12 to bring drought relief to Oklahoma farmers and ranchers. An Emergency Drought Commission will be formed and will have the authority to allocate funds. KOKH FOX 25 (Okla.), Sept 13, 2022

Cattle sales in Texas highest since 2011

2 years 10 months ago
Drought drove cattle sales to highs not seen in a decade. Cattle sales in Texas have topped 2.66 million head so far in 2022, which is more than 480,000 more cattle than sold by this time last year. Large numbers of breeding stock were sent to feedlots, and cow slaughter numbers were up significantly, over 80,000 per week in July for the highest cattle liquidation since 2011. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), Sept 14, 2022

North Dakota crops affected by dry conditions, blue-green algae in water

2 years 10 months ago
Abnormal dryness spread over much of North Dakota on the U.S. Drought Monitor this week, covering 84.34% of the state. April was North Dakota’s second wettest on record, but the weather has since turned drier. Pasture and range conditions, stock water supplies and crops were ranked in better conditions at the start of summer than at present. Algae has become a bigger problem for North Dakota lakes recently, with the state’s Department of Environmental Quality issuing advisories for a dozen lakes. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Sept 16, 2022

Crop yields low in eastern Kansas

2 years 10 months ago
Corn and soybean yields in Lyon County were far lower than hoped for as conditions were too hot and dry when crops began to fill. Ponds are drying up in pastures, and water quality has declined also. KVOE (Emporia, Kan.), Sept 13, 2022

SPC MD 1801

2 years 10 months ago
MD 1801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1801 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191752Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur as thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters will continue to spread eastward across parts of central/eastern NY and southern New England this afternoon. This activity is being aided by a shortwave trough moving over these regions. Recent VWPs from KBGM/KENX show gradually strengthening and veering winds with height through mid levels. This is supporting around 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear and modest thunderstorm organization. Even with mostly cloudy skies, some filtered diurnal heating has occurred with occasional cloud breaks. Weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, has occurred ahead of the ongoing convection. Poor mid-level lapse rates observed on the 12Z ALB sounding should temper instability from increasing much more through the rest of the afternoon. At this point, isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat given the mainly linear mode expected. There will be some potential for a greater concentration of near-severe (45-55 mph) winds across eastern NY and vicinity where the best heating has occurred so far, and where high-resolution guidance suggests convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity. Still, the overall severe wind threat will probably remain limited by the weak instability, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42807593 43227531 44007475 44087387 43867315 43417281 42667261 42097280 41747337 41657422 41767556 42047606 42807593 Read more

SPC Sep 19, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible for parts of the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...WI east into Lower MI... A large mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the south-central U.S. while a closed mid-level low moves little to the west of north-central CA. A mid-level speed max and associated mid-level trough will move east-southeastward from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest by early Wednesday. A surface low will develop east across northern Ontario while an attendant cold front sweeps southeast across the Upper Midwest. A couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible over WI/Lake MI during the morning in association with 850-mb WAA. This activity will likely dissipate during the day before a renewed chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms occurs during the afternoon/evening. Model guidance varies considerably on the location of the later-day storm development due in part to a capping inversion. It seems plausible at least a few storms will eventually develop near the front. Long hodographs coupled with a moist/strongly unstable boundary layer will conditionally support a supercell mode. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the primary threats before this activity likely weakens after sunset. ..Smith.. 09/19/2022 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 years 10 months ago

355
ABPZ20 KNHC 191723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Madeline, located about 150 miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure continue just off the southern Mexico and Guatemala
coasts. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico through the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the southern
coast of Mexico in a few days. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur thereafter while the disturbance meanders
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth

NHC Webmaster

SPC MD 1800

2 years 10 months ago
MD 1800 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1800 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Areas affected...eastern north Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191701Z - 191830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of isolated hail may continue for another couple of hours. Gradual weakening is expected early this afternoon and a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1700 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of elevated thunderstorms ongoing across portions of eastern ND. Likely driven by subtle warm air advection ahead of a southern Canadian shortwave trough, lift should begin to decrease as storms shift farther east with time. Supported by weak buoyancy aloft (MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg) a few elevated supercell structures may persist for a couple more hours given 45-50 kt of effective shear. Strong upper-level storm relative winds, sufficient buoyancy/lapse rates, and the supercell mode suggests isolated severe hail may accompany the stronger storms as they approach the I-29 corridor. However, buoyancy becomes increasingly limited with eastern extant as storms outrun the stronger warm advection and elevated destabilization. This is matched by the latest hi-res guidance which shows a gradual weakening of storms near the ND/MN border. Thus, with the limited buoyancy and severe coverage, a weather watch is not expected. ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47889902 48179802 48309709 48259684 48179658 47989631 47669615 47579611 47329608 47189618 47089674 47109779 47299883 47439909 47549928 47889902 Read more

SPC Sep 19, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST STATES...UPPER MIDWEST...AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and the Sacramento Valley. ...Northeast... 12Z observed soundings sampled weak, moist-adiabatic lapse rates and modest low to mid-level westerlies, downstream of a broad swath of weak convection across western NY/PA. This suggests that boundary-layer heating will be the primary mechanism required for intensification of this ongoing activity, which appears most pronounced from the Lower Hudson to DE Valleys. Still, MLCAPE will likely remain weak from 500-1000 J/kg. While there will be some increase in 850-500 mb winds, the bulk of stronger flow aloft will largely remain relegated west of the Appalachians this afternoon in the southwest flank of the shortwave trough shifting east across southeast ON and the Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. Lower-level flow should largely peak from 30-35 kt with the convection that spreads east, suggesting that strong but predominately sub-severe gusts should dominate as convective intensities peak in the late afternoon. These will still be capable of producing isolated to perhaps even scattered tree damage, but the threat for severe gusts appears too marginal to warrant an upgrade. Late morning CAM guidance suggests that the Upper Hudson Valley vicinity will have the greatest relative potential for multicell clustering, but observational data suggests boundary-layer heating will likely be stronger to the south. Colder mid-level temperatures attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the region downstream of the Lower Great Lakes during the early evening, as a mid-level jetlet spreads into western NY. Despite the increasingly unfavorable time of day with respect to the diurnal heating cycle, this setup could support a second round of convective development that may produce a 2-3 hour period of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts until convection wanes tonight. ...Eastern ND vicinity... Low-level WAA-driven convection persists and will likely spread northeast towards the international border while further decaying this afternoon. In the wake of this activity, a pronounced EML and attendant MLCIN appears likely to mitigate surface-based development along a weakly convergent surface trough in central ND this afternoon. Another round of low-level WAA-driven elevated thunderstorms might occur in the early morning tomorrow, similarly centered on central to eastern ND. While guidance differs greatly on this scenario, favorable speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer will support a conditional threat for isolated severe hail. ...Western WI vicinity... A corridor of elevated convection driven by low-level WAA along the eastern periphery of the north-central states EML appears probable overnight. Ample elevated buoyancy and some cloud-bearing shear could support isolated severe hail in the early life-cycle of the convective development. Convection will likely evolve into a broad cluster and temper individual updraft intensity towards 12Z. ... Sacramento Valley... A few low-topped storms should develop during the late afternoon within the left-exit region of a broad mid-level southwesterly jet centered across central CA into NV. Favorable elongation of the mid to upper-level hodograph could support small to marginally severe hail in the strongest updrafts amid weak mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/19/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation northward to include northern Wyoming and far southern Montana where winds of 15 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 10-20 percent are expected. Elsewhere, the forecast is on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley/Thornton.. 09/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level anticyclone will persist across the central and southern U.S. while an upper low meanders along the West Coast today. Strong mid-level flow will pivot around the periphery of the upper-level anticyclone and overspread a dry boundary layer across the Great Basin into the central Rockies and northern High Plains. As such, dry or windy conditions should develop by mid to late afternoon across much of the Intermountain West into portions of the Plains states. However, Wyoming seems to be the best location where longer term dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fine fuels (i.e. grasses), warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Hog Trough Fire (Wildfire)

2 years 10 months ago
September 3, 2022 is the last working day for the Western Montana All Hazards Incident Team and management of the Hog Trough Fire will be transitioned back to the local unity. The Western MT All Hazards Incident Management Team would like to thank the cooperating agencies, residents and partners for all the support throughout the incident. Some resources will be left to patrol the area.  All lands within the prior closure areas associated with the Hog Trough Fire are open effective September 18th, 2022 at 1600