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Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance on a wildfire burning in Palo Pinto County on September 29, 2022, around 12:45 p.m. The Lazy Fire is burning in rough terrain with thick juniper vegetation and is threatening multiple structures. The fire was reported as a prescribed burn outside control lines. This was not a burn conducted by Texas A&M Forest Service; the agency was requested to assist with suppression once the burn converted to a wildfire.Texas A&M Forest Service is on scene and are working closely with local fire departments and resources from the county to suppress Lazy Fire. Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with Palo Pinto

More than 1,200 wells have run dry in California this year, a nearly 50% increase over the same time frame last year, according to the California Department of Water Resources. In comparison, fewer than 100 dry wells were reported annually in 2018, 2019 and 2020. The groundwater crisis is worst in the San Joaquin Valley, California’s prime agricultural land. Farmers pump more groundwater because they were not getting water, or much of it, from state or federal projects. Water tables are falling with 64% of wells at below-normal water levels. About 430 wells have gone dry in Madera County so far this year. The Associated Press (New York), Oct 4, 2022

A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Team has arrived in Joseph, Oregon to begin their assessment of the Double Creek Fire. The fire has covered 171,505 acres to date on the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest and nearby private lands.BAER is an emergency program aimed at managing imminent unacceptable risks to human life and safety, property, or critical natural and cultural resources from post-wildfire conditions. A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Team has arrived in Westfir, Oregon to begin their assessment of the Cedar Creek Fire. The fire has covered 120,757 acres (to date) on the Willamette and Deschutes National Forests.The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for emergency response work...

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 5 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 5 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Paine, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. Several shortwave troughs embedded within this larger-scale system will pivot across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. While some enhancement to westerly midlevel flow will accompany these shortwave troughs, vertical shear will generally remain weak. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southern Quebec and the Northeast. A cold front associated with the low will develop south/southeast across the central Plains, mid/upper MS Valley and OH Valley vicinity through the period. Cooler midlevel temperatures will support modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to weak instability. However, a seasonally dry airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front across much of the Plains/Midwest/Northeast, limiting stronger destabilization. A few instances of thunderstorms will still be possible ahead of the front across parts of NE, the Lake Michigan vicinity and parts of New England, though severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. Diurnal thunderstorm activity is also expected again across portions of the Southwest where steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak instability amid abundant midlevel moisture. Weak vertical shear and modest instability will limit severe potential here as well. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Dry conditions (RH values below 30%) are possible over much of the mid Mississippi Valley, but the lack of stronger winds will keep any fire weather concerns localized. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will become prevalent across the central U.S. today as a surface cold front sags southward across the Plains. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions may precede the cold front, with wildfire-spread potential remaining localized and limited overall. The best chance for any brief, localized wildfire concerns would likely be over the central and southern Plains states, where fuels are most receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINES ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the southwestern U.S, the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and in the vicinity of southern New England. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ...Synopsis/Forecast... Thunderstorms are expected today into tonight including across the southern Rockies/west Texas in proximity to an upper low, in addition to parts of the Midwest related to an east/southeastward-moving shortwave trough from Iowa into northern Illinois. While a couple of strong thunderstorms could occur this afternoon in areas such as southeast New Mexico/far west Texas and/or south-central Iowa, organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely owing to modest buoyancy and relatively weak vertical shear. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 10/05/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 14:39:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 15:28:13 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 795 FOPZ12 KNHC 051438 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 051438 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Paine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Organized deep convection has been absent from Paine for the past 12 hours, but a couple of small bursts of convection have pulsed over the past few hours. Therefore, it is prudent to wait to see if that convection increases through this morning's diurnal maximum before declaring the system post-tropical. Given the expected increase in westerly shear and dry mid-level environment it is unlikely the convection will persist or gain any organization. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Continued weakening is expected due to the aforementioned unfavorable conditions and Paine should become a remnant low this afternoon, and the circulation is foreast to become an open trough within 48 hours. Paine is moving northwestward or 305/4 kt. The cyclone's motion should bend toward the west-northwest and west over the next 24 to 36 hours as it becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 114 WTPZ32 KNHC 051438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 ...PAINE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 114.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paine was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 114.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west are expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Paine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...PAINE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 the center of Paine was located near 18.4, -114.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 051438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

With the increase in groundings, the Coast Guard established a Marine Transportation System Recovery Unit, which has been set up to coordinate waterway recovery, track the status of the waterway, recommend courses of action to the captain-of-the-port and provide a forum for maritime stakeholders. The Maritime Executive (Plantation, Fla.), Oct 4, 2022

The low level of the Mississippi River increases the likelihood of running aground, which has occurred numerous times. Groundings happened near Stack Island, Mississippi and Memphis, Tennessee, resulting in waterway closures around both sites. Eight groundings have occurred in the past week, due to shallow water. The Maritime Executive (Plantation, Fla.), Oct 4, 2022

The Dorena-Hickman Ferry, which transports vehicles across the Mississippi River between Missouri and Kentucky closed on Sept. 15, due to low water levels. When the river is low, it is harder for vehicles to load and off-load from the ferry at both landings, according to the Kentucky Transportation Department. The ferry will remain closed until water levels improve. The ferry connects Kentucky Route 1354 in Hickman with Missouri Route A and Route 77 near Dorena and is the only direct route between the two states. The Associated Press (New York), Sept. 16, 2022

Barge traffic is stopped near Lake Providence in northern Louisiana along a stretch that has been mostly closed since late last week. About 100 tow boats moving some 1,600 barges were lined up for miles waiting to get through. At least two other lengths of the lower Mississippi have also been closed at times, disrupting the flow of grain, fertilizer and other commodities. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is working on dredging the river to deepen the shipping channel so traffic can resume, but navigation challenges will likely continue until the region receives more rain to boost river flow. Reuters (New York), Oct 4, 2022

The fall means harvest time with farm machinery in the fields, but dry conditions also increase the fire danger and the likelihood of field fires. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources warned operators of farm equipment and off-road vehicles to use special caution near dry vegetation. Keep equipment maintained and fire safe. Also keep trailer chains from dragging, which can generate sparks. KARE 11 (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 29, 2022