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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to occur on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build northward across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday as a high-pressure system strengthens in the Southeast. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western states as southwest mid-level flow remains in the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. As mid-level heights rise during the day, the front may begin to retreat northward as low-level moisture increases to the south of the front. Due to the rising heights and lack of large-scale ascent, thunderstorm development along the front should remain isolated in most areas. Although moderate instability will likely develop across parts of the warm sector, deep-layer shear should remain weak enough to keep any severe threat marginal. Thunderstorms that can develop and persist through the late afternoon and early evening, could become strong enough to produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... A fast moving shortwave trough will affect the Northeast on Saturday as mid-level flow becomes more westerly. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance southward across the lower Great Lakes region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to some destabilization ahead of the front. This combined with low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Although instability should remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to occur on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build northward across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday as a high-pressure system strengthens in the Southeast. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western states as southwest mid-level flow remains in the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. As mid-level heights rise during the day, the front may begin to retreat northward as low-level moisture increases to the south of the front. Due to the rising heights and lack of large-scale ascent, thunderstorm development along the front should remain isolated in most areas. Although moderate instability will likely develop across parts of the warm sector, deep-layer shear should remain weak enough to keep any severe threat marginal. Thunderstorms that can develop and persist through the late afternoon and early evening, could become strong enough to produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... A fast moving shortwave trough will affect the Northeast on Saturday as mid-level flow becomes more westerly. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance southward across the lower Great Lakes region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to some destabilization ahead of the front. This combined with low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Although instability should remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to occur on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build northward across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday as a high-pressure system strengthens in the Southeast. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western states as southwest mid-level flow remains in the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. As mid-level heights rise during the day, the front may begin to retreat northward as low-level moisture increases to the south of the front. Due to the rising heights and lack of large-scale ascent, thunderstorm development along the front should remain isolated in most areas. Although moderate instability will likely develop across parts of the warm sector, deep-layer shear should remain weak enough to keep any severe threat marginal. Thunderstorms that can develop and persist through the late afternoon and early evening, could become strong enough to produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... A fast moving shortwave trough will affect the Northeast on Saturday as mid-level flow becomes more westerly. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance southward across the lower Great Lakes region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to some destabilization ahead of the front. This combined with low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Although instability should remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to occur on Saturday from parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build northward across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday as a high-pressure system strengthens in the Southeast. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western states as southwest mid-level flow remains in the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. As mid-level heights rise during the day, the front may begin to retreat northward as low-level moisture increases to the south of the front. Due to the rising heights and lack of large-scale ascent, thunderstorm development along the front should remain isolated in most areas. Although moderate instability will likely develop across parts of the warm sector, deep-layer shear should remain weak enough to keep any severe threat marginal. Thunderstorms that can develop and persist through the late afternoon and early evening, could become strong enough to produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ...Lower Great Lakes... A fast moving shortwave trough will affect the Northeast on Saturday as mid-level flow becomes more westerly. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance southward across the lower Great Lakes region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to some destabilization ahead of the front. This combined with low-level convergence along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Although instability should remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P28 TO 30 SE PNC TO 25 NE TUL TO 15 SSE GMJ TO 15 NNE FLP. ..LEITMAN..09/26/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-029-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129- 131-141-143-149-260740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CONWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-037-041-047-053-061-063-077-079-081-091-097-101-103- 107-111-117-119-121-125-131-133-135-143-145-260740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN MCINTOSH Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Friday from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s F which should result in moderate instability by midday. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergences increases along the front, thunderstorm development will be likely along the majority of the front from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along the front for 00Z/Saturday have MLCAPE values generally from 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg with 35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with cells that remain discrete. However, strong low-level convergence and mid-level flow parallel to the front should result in mostly linear development as the event progresses. Supercells early in the event or rotating cells embedded along the line should have an isolated tornado and large hail threat. Wind damage will also be possible especially as a squall line organizes near the front during the early to mid evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Friday from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s F which should result in moderate instability by midday. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergences increases along the front, thunderstorm development will be likely along the majority of the front from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along the front for 00Z/Saturday have MLCAPE values generally from 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg with 35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with cells that remain discrete. However, strong low-level convergence and mid-level flow parallel to the front should result in mostly linear development as the event progresses. Supercells early in the event or rotating cells embedded along the line should have an isolated tornado and large hail threat. Wind damage will also be possible especially as a squall line organizes near the front during the early to mid evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Friday from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s F which should result in moderate instability by midday. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergences increases along the front, thunderstorm development will be likely along the majority of the front from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along the front for 00Z/Saturday have MLCAPE values generally from 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg with 35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with cells that remain discrete. However, strong low-level convergence and mid-level flow parallel to the front should result in mostly linear development as the event progresses. Supercells early in the event or rotating cells embedded along the line should have an isolated tornado and large hail threat. Wind damage will also be possible especially as a squall line organizes near the front during the early to mid evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, large hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Friday from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s F which should result in moderate instability by midday. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergences increases along the front, thunderstorm development will be likely along the majority of the front from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along the front for 00Z/Saturday have MLCAPE values generally from 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg with 35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should support supercell development with cells that remain discrete. However, strong low-level convergence and mid-level flow parallel to the front should result in mostly linear development as the event progresses. Supercells early in the event or rotating cells embedded along the line should have an isolated tornado and large hail threat. Wind damage will also be possible especially as a squall line organizes near the front during the early to mid evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/26/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southwestern U.S. mid-level low will weaken dramatically while ejecting northeastward toward the central Plains. Meanwhile, a longer-wave trough will become established across the West and mid-level shortwave ridging will take hold across the northern Rockies/Plains. Mid/upper ridging will remain in place across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a front will become nearly stationary across the central Plains as high pressure builds into the northern Plains and lee of the Rockies. Weak low pressure will exist across the Great Basin. The net result of this pattern will be quiescent fire weather as weaker surface winds overlap areas containing dry fuels. One exception may be the immediate lee of the Sierra, although relatively high RH values should keep fire weather concerns low there as well. Dry conditions will persist across the East, although weak surface flow will also prevail. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southwestern U.S. mid-level low will weaken dramatically while ejecting northeastward toward the central Plains. Meanwhile, a longer-wave trough will become established across the West and mid-level shortwave ridging will take hold across the northern Rockies/Plains. Mid/upper ridging will remain in place across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a front will become nearly stationary across the central Plains as high pressure builds into the northern Plains and lee of the Rockies. Weak low pressure will exist across the Great Basin. The net result of this pattern will be quiescent fire weather as weaker surface winds overlap areas containing dry fuels. One exception may be the immediate lee of the Sierra, although relatively high RH values should keep fire weather concerns low there as well. Dry conditions will persist across the East, although weak surface flow will also prevail. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southwestern U.S. mid-level low will weaken dramatically while ejecting northeastward toward the central Plains. Meanwhile, a longer-wave trough will become established across the West and mid-level shortwave ridging will take hold across the northern Rockies/Plains. Mid/upper ridging will remain in place across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a front will become nearly stationary across the central Plains as high pressure builds into the northern Plains and lee of the Rockies. Weak low pressure will exist across the Great Basin. The net result of this pattern will be quiescent fire weather as weaker surface winds overlap areas containing dry fuels. One exception may be the immediate lee of the Sierra, although relatively high RH values should keep fire weather concerns low there as well. Dry conditions will persist across the East, although weak surface flow will also prevail. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southwestern U.S. mid-level low will weaken dramatically while ejecting northeastward toward the central Plains. Meanwhile, a longer-wave trough will become established across the West and mid-level shortwave ridging will take hold across the northern Rockies/Plains. Mid/upper ridging will remain in place across the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a front will become nearly stationary across the central Plains as high pressure builds into the northern Plains and lee of the Rockies. Weak low pressure will exist across the Great Basin. The net result of this pattern will be quiescent fire weather as weaker surface winds overlap areas containing dry fuels. One exception may be the immediate lee of the Sierra, although relatively high RH values should keep fire weather concerns low there as well. Dry conditions will persist across the East, although weak surface flow will also prevail. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become briefly established across the northern tier of the CONUS during the forecast period. A shortwave trough will migrate eastward from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains during the day. This will result in height falls and increasing mid-level flow across portions of the central Rockies and vicinity. Meanwhile, a lee trough and surface cyclogenesis will become well defined and set up a favorably strong surface pressure gradient across portions of northern Colorado and Wyoming. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur as a result. ...Portions of the Central Rockies and High Plains... The aforementioned synoptic features will result in an axis of critically strong (20-30 mph) surface flow from northeastern Utah through most of Wyoming and northern Colorado. Meanwhile, RH values will fall in the presence of surface heating, with the lowest values (<15%) currently expected across southeastern Wyoming. RH values should be slightly higher across the remainder of the region (15-25%). A broad elevated fire weather delineation remains in place for this outlook from northeastern Utah through much of eastern Wyoming where elevated fire weather conditions will occur atop dry fuels. In the critical region across southeastern Wyoming, critically low RH will coincide with dry fuels and strong surface winds. Late in the day, a front will migrate southward across eastern Wyoming. This front will result in surface winds shifting from westerly to northerly while remaining gusty. This frontal passage may complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become briefly established across the northern tier of the CONUS during the forecast period. A shortwave trough will migrate eastward from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains during the day. This will result in height falls and increasing mid-level flow across portions of the central Rockies and vicinity. Meanwhile, a lee trough and surface cyclogenesis will become well defined and set up a favorably strong surface pressure gradient across portions of northern Colorado and Wyoming. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur as a result. ...Portions of the Central Rockies and High Plains... The aforementioned synoptic features will result in an axis of critically strong (20-30 mph) surface flow from northeastern Utah through most of Wyoming and northern Colorado. Meanwhile, RH values will fall in the presence of surface heating, with the lowest values (<15%) currently expected across southeastern Wyoming. RH values should be slightly higher across the remainder of the region (15-25%). A broad elevated fire weather delineation remains in place for this outlook from northeastern Utah through much of eastern Wyoming where elevated fire weather conditions will occur atop dry fuels. In the critical region across southeastern Wyoming, critically low RH will coincide with dry fuels and strong surface winds. Late in the day, a front will migrate southward across eastern Wyoming. This front will result in surface winds shifting from westerly to northerly while remaining gusty. This frontal passage may complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become briefly established across the northern tier of the CONUS during the forecast period. A shortwave trough will migrate eastward from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains during the day. This will result in height falls and increasing mid-level flow across portions of the central Rockies and vicinity. Meanwhile, a lee trough and surface cyclogenesis will become well defined and set up a favorably strong surface pressure gradient across portions of northern Colorado and Wyoming. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur as a result. ...Portions of the Central Rockies and High Plains... The aforementioned synoptic features will result in an axis of critically strong (20-30 mph) surface flow from northeastern Utah through most of Wyoming and northern Colorado. Meanwhile, RH values will fall in the presence of surface heating, with the lowest values (<15%) currently expected across southeastern Wyoming. RH values should be slightly higher across the remainder of the region (15-25%). A broad elevated fire weather delineation remains in place for this outlook from northeastern Utah through much of eastern Wyoming where elevated fire weather conditions will occur atop dry fuels. In the critical region across southeastern Wyoming, critically low RH will coincide with dry fuels and strong surface winds. Late in the day, a front will migrate southward across eastern Wyoming. This front will result in surface winds shifting from westerly to northerly while remaining gusty. This frontal passage may complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will become briefly established across the northern tier of the CONUS during the forecast period. A shortwave trough will migrate eastward from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains during the day. This will result in height falls and increasing mid-level flow across portions of the central Rockies and vicinity. Meanwhile, a lee trough and surface cyclogenesis will become well defined and set up a favorably strong surface pressure gradient across portions of northern Colorado and Wyoming. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur as a result. ...Portions of the Central Rockies and High Plains... The aforementioned synoptic features will result in an axis of critically strong (20-30 mph) surface flow from northeastern Utah through most of Wyoming and northern Colorado. Meanwhile, RH values will fall in the presence of surface heating, with the lowest values (<15%) currently expected across southeastern Wyoming. RH values should be slightly higher across the remainder of the region (15-25%). A broad elevated fire weather delineation remains in place for this outlook from northeastern Utah through much of eastern Wyoming where elevated fire weather conditions will occur atop dry fuels. In the critical region across southeastern Wyoming, critically low RH will coincide with dry fuels and strong surface winds. Late in the day, a front will migrate southward across eastern Wyoming. This front will result in surface winds shifting from westerly to northerly while remaining gusty. This frontal passage may complicate any ongoing fire suppression efforts. ..Cook.. 09/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto
Rico, and on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has decreased and become less organized
since the afternoon. Some development of this system is still
possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward for the next day or so. The
disturbance is forecast to turn southeastward on Friday and
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
portion of the East Pacific basin. This system is expected to move
westward during the next day or two into a region of deep
southwesterly flow south of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical
depression is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system could cause heavy rainfall
over southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Drought in Central Texas left the ground too hard to work seedbeds in some parts of the district. Hay growers hoped to make a final cutting, but the lack of rain meant grasses were not growing. Pastures were declining. Many counties had burn bans, and nearly all of the district was short on soil moisture. The Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Sept. 24, 2019