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Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Julia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 90.3W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move over southern Guatemala today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Julia is expected to dissipate this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: *El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches *Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches *Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches *Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15 inches *Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm total of 6 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible today along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 the center of Julia was located near 14.1, -90.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 101442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

The Solomon Fire was reported on Aug 24, 2022, and is burning southeast of Missoula, MT in the Welcome Creek Wilderness on the Missoula Ranger District. It is located approximately 6 miles south of Interstate 90/Rock Creek Exit #126, near Solomon Mountain in upper Solomon Creek, approximately 2 miles southwest of the Spring Creek Trailhead (Rock Creek recreation corridor). The fire is burning in a steep, thickly timbered bowl with snags, or hazard trees, making up about half of the standing fuel and is surrounded to the south, east, and west by the 2007 Sawmill Fire burned area. The terrain, fuel type, and the presence of snag trees, limit the ability to place firefighters directly on the fire. Firefighter safety is a top priority when assessing engagement on this fire. The Solomon Fire is being managed under a point protection strategy which means that highly valued resources (such as buildings, infrastructure, or recreational assets) are being strategically protected from the fire,...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated conditions are possible across parts of the Southeast (particularly AL and the western FL Panhandle) during the afternoon. Here, a very dry antecedent airmass (lower 20s minimum RH) and 10 mph northerly surface winds will raise some fire-weather concerns given increasingly dry fuels across the area. However, the lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes an Elevated area. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... A weak trough will move into the northern/central Plains on Monday. This will result in weak lee troughing across the central Plains. Some breezy conditions may develop as a result. However, there remains considerable uncertainty whether these winds will overlap with low relative humidity. In addition, fuels in the region are only marginally dry. Therefore, no elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. Elsewhere, lee-troughing east of the Canadian Rockies will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Some stronger winds are anticipated in the Columbia Basin, Snake River Valley, and in northern Montana, but these winds are not expected to overlap low relative humidity and critically dry fuels in any locations. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 9 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 9 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located inland over Nicaragua.

Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Julia is expected to complete its westward crossing of Central
America today and emerge over the extreme eastern Pacific tonight.
The system is forecast to dissipate near the southern coast of
Central America in couple of days, and significant re-development
of the remaining disturbance is not anticipated as it passes to the
south of southern Mexico by the middle of this week. More
information on Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the web at
hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
The last Atlantic basin intermediate public advisory at 100 PM CDT
on Tropical Storm Julia will be issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.

The next public advisory at 400 PM CDT on Tropical Storm Julia
will be issued under Eastern Pacific WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
The next forecast/advisory at 400 PM CDT on Tropical Storm Julia
will be issued under Eastern Pacific WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Monday. ...Trans-Pecos region into parts of the southern Plains... The persistent upper-level low near the Arizona/Sonora border is expected to weaken on Monday, as one mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves southward from northern CA to offshore of southern CA, and a stronger shortwave moves southeastward and amplifies across the interior Northwest and northern Rockies. As this occurs, multiple embedded vorticity maxima are forecast to eject northeastward from the Southwest into the southern Plains. One vorticity maximum is forecast to emerge over the TX Trans-Pecos region Monday afternoon, accompanied by scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Another storm cluster may move from northwest TX into OK through the day. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest effective shear (generally peaking at 20-25 kt) will support the potential for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail, though at this time the magnitude of instability/shear appears too limited for an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 10/09/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Very dry conditions are expected across Alabama and southern Georgia on Sunday, but winds should be light. Therefore, the threat for large fires should be minimal. Elsewhere, no breezy conditions are expected to accompany dry surface conditions and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today. ...Southwest... The mid/upper low anchored along the AZ/Sonora border will remain nearly stationary through tonight. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are once again expected ahead of this feature from southeast AZ to the TX Trans-Pecos and north to the Four Corners area. Strong storm potential will be limited by weak effective shear across much of the region. A couple of storms may produce small hail and strong winds over the TX Trans-Pecos where a confined belt of 500-mb winds from 20-25 kts is expected. ...South FL... A plume of moisture characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon from the Treasure Coast to the Paradise Coast and Everglades. Despite generally weak deep-layer winds, veering of the wind profile with height from low-level easterlies to mid-level southwesterlies should result in modest effective shear of 20-25 kt. Diurnal heating should contribute to moderate buoyancy, and a few strong storms may develop containing sub-severe hail and wind. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 10/09/2022 Read more

A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Team has arrived in Westfir, Oregon to begin their assessment of the Cedar Creek Fire. The fire has covered 120,757 acres (to date) on the Willamette and Deschutes National Forests. The Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program is designed to identify and manage potential risks to resources on National Forest System lands and reduce these threats through appropriate emergency measures to protect human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. BAER is an emergency program for emergency response work that involves time-critical activities to be completed before the first damaging event to meet program objectives:BAER Objectives:•  Determine whether imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands exist and take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage the unacceptable risks.•  If emergency conditions are...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Tropical Storm Julia is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
and is forecast to cross portions of Central America Sunday and
Sunday night. Although the system is expected to dissipate over the
extreme eastern Pacific in a few days, environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development of the remaining disturbance
as it passes to the south of southern Mexico by the middle of next
week. More information on Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the
web at hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 8 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 8 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Southwest... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southwest, in association with a persistent mid/upper-level low centered near the Arizona/Sonora border. A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out, especially from southeast AZ into far west TX, where somewhat stronger instability may develop by afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected to limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ...Central/south Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of central/south Florida on Sunday, as deeper tropical moisture returns to the region. Moderate buoyancy may support a few strong storms during the afternoon into early evening, but weak deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit storm organization. ..Dean.. 10/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Dry, northerly flow will persist across the Southeast on Sunday. Relative humidity is expected to drop below 20 percent across portions of eastern Alabama into western and southern Georgia. Despite the very dry relative humidity, winds are expected to remain light, 6-9 mph, and therefore, no elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Windy conditions are expected across the Great Lakes on Saturday. However, fuels in this area are mostly moist and relative humidity is forecast to be mostly 35-40 percent and above which will preclude major fire weather concerns. Dry conditions are expected across the Southeast in the post-frontal airmass. Relative humidity is sufficiently dry, but winds are only expected to peak around 10 mph during the afternoon. In addition, the best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected across portions of northern Alabama where fuels are less dry. Therefore, an increase in initial attack may occur across Alabama and vicinity, but winds remain too light for an elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Southwest... An upper low will remain centered over Sonora today and tonight, with showers/thunderstorms again expected on its northern periphery, with peak convective activity expected this afternoon into evening. Modestly stronger mid-level winds may allow for storms to somewhat organize off the Mogollon Rim toward the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening, with another regional maximization of scattered thunderstorms expected across southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. While a few strong storms are possible, modest instability and weak vertical shear (effective 20 kt or less) are expected to keep the potential for organized severe thunderstorms low. ...Florida... Higher PW values are expected to spread northwest from the Florida Straits into southeast Florida, coincident with relatively warm mid-level temperatures and poor mid-level lapse rates. This moistening process should lead to increasing isolated/scattered showers over land this afternoon into evening, with some potential that a few of these cells could produce an occasional lightning flash. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/08/2022 Read more