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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Areas affected...western Arkansas...far southeast Oklahoma...far northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090325Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with the strongest convection this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Pronounced surface front is advancing across eastern OK/northwest AR this evening. This boundary will continue surging east in response to a progressive short-wave trough approaching the MS Valley. Boundary-layer moisture has gradually returned to the Arklatex region where surface dew points are now in the lower 60s as far north as Hot Springs. Over the last hour or so, frontal convergence has instigated deeper/longer-lived updrafts over southeast OK. This activity is developing within an environment characterized by steepening mid-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggest this activity is likely rooted near, or just above the surface within a sheared regime favorable for sustained, rotating updrafts. Frontal convection appears to be somewhat linear, but some supercell traits may be evolving with the convection over McCurtain County OK where latest MRMS data suggest hail could be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Further development is expected along the boundary as it advances into western AR, possibly as far southwest as northeast TX. Hail should be the main severe threat with this activity. Will continue to monitor this region, but unless more widespread hail cores develop a severe thunderstorm watch may not be warranted. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34029505 35729341 35359231 33469398 34029505 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 8 22:35:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 8 22:35:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more