Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated
with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. Development, if any,
of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft
and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico,
through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few of which may produce strong/gusty winds and marginal hail, are expected Wednesday across parts of the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and westward to the Arklatex region. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward from the Plains on Wednesday morning, becoming oriented from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast by Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the Midwest, and decreasing with southward extent into the southern U.S. At the surface, a cold front extending from WI southwestward into western OK/northwest TX will sweep eastward during the forecast period. By Thursday morning, the front is expected to extend from western NY/PA toward Middle TN, southwestward toward the TX coast. ...Middle TN into the OH Valley Vicinity... Stronger vertical shear will be in place across the region, closer to the core of the upper trough and within the stronger surface pressure gradient associated with a low over Ontario. South/southwesterly low-level flow will bring a narrow corridor of upper 50s and 60s F surface dewpoints northward ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating will be limited by cloud cover and possibly early day showers. However, cooling aloft will support modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will be possible amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Transient supercells and briefly organized clusters could produce isolated strong storms capable of hail and strong gusts. Low-level instability will be limited, but enlarged, favorably curved surface-3 km hodographs suggest a brief tornado also could occur. ...AR into western TN/northern MS Vicinity... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon across AR and shift east/southeast into western TN and northern MS. Some guidance suggest an increase in hail and strong gust potential will accompany these cells. Stronger heating is expected along this corridor ahead of the front, resulting in steeper low-level lapse rates, while cooling aloft associated with the main upper trough supports steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt and favorable hodographs suggest some rotating cells will be possible. A narrow corridor of relative greater severe potential may exist within this corridor and an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks if forecast confidence increases. ...Southern MS/AL... A lead shortwave impulse is expected to move across MS/AL during the morning/early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in this pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, low-level thermodynamics appear weak given limited heating. Midlevel temperatures also are only forecast to be around -8 to -10 C, resulting in poor midlevel lapse rates. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt, and somewhat elongated hodographs could result in some briefly organized cells within morning thunderstorm clusters across parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, though severe potential appears limited at this time. By the time the cold front moves into southern MS/AL during the evening/overnight, considerable mid/upper level drying is forecast and thunderstorms are not expected to be severe. ..Leitman.. 10/11/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 11 17:31:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 11 17:31:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A southward-advancing surface cold front will continue across the Plains this afternoon. Winds gusting 40-50 mph have been observed in surface observations across Wyoming and Montana this morning. Strong west to southwest surface winds will overlap with low relative humidity ahead of the cold front across much of the central Plains this afternoon. Dry northerly flow will be possible behind the frontal passage. Within the central High Plains Elevated area, brief periods of near-critical fire-weather conditions may be possible across the Nebraska Panhandle southward into northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas. ..Thornton/Weinman.. 10/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the central CONUS today. Meanwhile a surface low will continue to deepen as it moves east across the Canadian Prairie. ...Portions of the central Plains and central High Plains... A cold front will move through the Plains today. In its wake, dry and breezy conditions will develop with winds of 15 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 25 percent expected from southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado into Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Some critical conditions are likely, but are not expected to persist for long enough as cooler air moves in behind the front and relative humidity improves as a result. ...Portions of the Northern Plains... Very windy conditions (25 to 30 mph sustained winds) are expected in the wake of the cold front across the northern Plains. Relative humidity may be too high to support fire weather concerns in some locations, but relative humidity of 20-30 percent is expected from southeast Montana to north-central South Dakota where elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest to the central Great Plains tonight through early Wednesday morning. ...KS to WI tonight... A northern stream shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward and amplify over the northern Plains, as a lower latitude trough and moisture plume eject northeastward from OK/KS/MO toward IL today. A few (mainly elevated) thunderstorms will be possible within the low-midlevel moisture plume from eastern OK across MO into IL this afternoon and Lower MI by this evening. To the west of the thicker clouds and in advance of a cold front associated with the amplifying northern Plains midlevel trough, a modest increase in low-level moisture will occur today from OK to IA and WI. Though the richer low-level moisture will be confined much farther south into the Gulf of Mexico along a remnant frontal zone and with a developing tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s will spread northeastward in advance of the cold front. Regional 12z soundings revealed a relatively warm elevated mixed layer over the central/northern Plains, which will act to cap the boundary layer through this afternoon. By late evening, ascent atop the frontal surface should be sufficient for thunderstorm development across MN/western WI where the cap will be weaker, with subsequent storm development later tonight and farther southwest into KS/MO/IA. Lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear will support the potential for isolated large hail and strong surface wind gusts with bands of convection slightly behind the surface cold front (better chance for strong winds farther south toward KS/MO/IA). ...Southwest TX and interior southern CA this afternoon... An isolated strong storm may form this afternoon over the high terrain near Fort Stockton, where deep-layer vertical shear and buoyancy could support low-end supercell potential. However, storm coverage will be isolated at best and warming is expected in the mid levels, so any severe threat should remain too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, isolated strong outflow gusts may occur in the higher terrain across southern CA this afternoon, where deeper mixing results in inverted-v profiles. The threat for severe storms appears to be low enough to preclude an outlook area. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 10/11/2022 Read more

  Prescribed Burning Planned at Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge COMMERCE CITY-Weather permitting, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) will be conducting prescribed burning activities on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge beginning Monday, October 10th. The FWS plans to burn up to 2,064 acres over 2 weeks. The burns will be conducted between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Smoke will be visible for several miles from the perimeter of the Refuge and people in the area may smell smoke. The purpose of the burns is to reinvigorate the growth of native prairie vegetation, reduce accumulated litter, manage efforts for weed control and improve habitat to sustain wildlife. Prescribed burns are also an important tool land managers use to reduce the risk of wildfire in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). Interagency fire crews from the FWS, local fire departments and other federal agencies will be participating in the prescribed burns. Safety is our number one priority...

All four states—Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas—are affected by dry conditions. Many counties have issued burn bans, as well as Joplin, Missouri. KOAM News Now (Joplin, Mo.), Oct 8, 2022

Low rain and snowfall in California and reduced water supplies from the Colorado River in Southern California caused tomatoes and onions to shrivel and jeopardized the growing of leafy greens in the winter. Produce prices were rising in grocery stores, and U.S. inflation has risen to its highest level in 40 years. California grows about 30% of the processing tomatoes used worldwide. In August the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered the 2022 forecast to 10.5 million tons, a drop of 10% from its estimate of 12.2 million tons earlier in the year. Reuters (New York), Oct. 10, 2022

Residents of Greenwood were urged to conserve water due to heat and drought. The city website noted that the measure was temporary and will end after rainfall. City water is not to be used to irrigate lawns. Greenwood gets its water from Greenwood City Lake and James Fork Lake. Northwest Arkansas News (Fayetteville, Ark.), Sept 23, 2022 and Fort Smith Southwest Times Record (Ark.), Oct 11, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located inland over southern Guatemala.

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Tropical Depression Julia is forecast to dissipate inland over
Guatemala later today or tonight. A portion of its remnants are
expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of
a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern
Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development
of the new system will be possible while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the
end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the remnants of Julia interacting with a broader
area of low pressure will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides
across portions of southern Mexico and northern Central America
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 10 17:27:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 10 17:27:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and strong wind gusts will be possible from parts of upper Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and central/southern Plains, mainly Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering much of western Canada is forecast to amplify and move southeastward on Tuesday, with the southern portion of the trough building into much of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday morning. A deep surface low is forecast to move eastward across northern Manitoba, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the northern/central Plains and eventually the upper Midwest. ...Upper MS Valley/Midwest into the central/southern Plains... Modest low-level moisture is expected to stream northward into parts of the Plains/Midwest and upper MS Valley during the day on Tuesday, in advance of the cold front. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy, though a substantial capping inversion will likely limit thunderstorm initiation for much of the day. Large-scale ascent attendant to the cold front and amplifying upper-level trough may allow for thunderstorm development along the front during the evening, initially over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley, and then farther southwest into the central and possibly southern Plains by later Tuesday night. Given the anticipated nocturnal timing of larger-scale storm development, initial convection will likely be somewhat elevated, but sufficient buoyancy and effective shear of 25-35 kt will support the potential for organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two. Isolated hail may be the most prevalent threat, given favorably cool temperatures aloft and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. However, even with convection likely to become increasingly elevated with time, isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, given the presence of relatively strong low-level flow and a residual well-mixed boundary layer across parts of the warm sector. A broad Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook, though higher probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the upper MS Valley/Midwest, especially if confidence increases in earlier, near-surface-based storm initiation. The threat becomes increasingly conditional with southwestward extent into the southern Plains, where the environment will be favorable for strong elevated storms late Tuesday night, but large-scale ascent will be weaker compared to areas to the northeast. ..Dean.. 10/10/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts are possible over the Trans-Pecos to Permian Basin of west Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...West Texas... A weak MCV continues to persist northeastward near the Midland-Odessa vicinity late this morning. Latest thoughts are the MCV-preceding air mass will not appreciably destabilization into the Big Country owing to ongoing cloud cover and scattered precipitation, aside from relatively weak vertical shear (Effective 20-25 kt or less). However, in the wake of the MCV, clouds continue to clear/thin across the Trans-Pecos, where upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is plausible later this afternoon. Weak low-level upslope flow and differential heating will likely influence widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Aided by a modestly strong belt of southwesterly mid/high-level winds, effective shear of 25-30 kt across the Trans-Pecos will support some sustained multicells and possibly a few storms with weak mid-level updraft rotation. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts on a localized basis. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/10/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across parts of western Canada, with the southern extension of this trough building into the northern Rockies by early Tuesday morning. A deep surface low attendant to the trough is expected to move eastward across the Canadian Northwest Territories, with a surface trough extending southward through the Canadian Prairies into parts of the northern/central High Plains. ...Central NE into southern SD... A modest southerly low-level jet will support sustained winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon from central NE into southern SD, to the east of the surface trough. With an antecedent dry airmass and limited low-level moisture advection during the day, minimum RH values are expected to drop into the 20-25% range, supporting elevated fire-weather conditions as winds increase this afternoon. ...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies... An antecedent dry airmass and a modest surface pressure gradient may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions across terrain-favored areas of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies, but the duration and areal coverage of this threat is expected to be relatively limited, so no elevated delineation appears warranted for these areas. ...AL into the FL Panhandle... Locally elevated conditions will be possible across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle this afternoon, as RH values drop into the 20-30% range by peak heating. At this time, sustained winds are only expected to be around 10 mph, which should tend to limit the areal coverage and duration of elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY   There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System lands and...

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 637 WTPZ43 KNHC 101445 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador. Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, assuming some spin down of the winds from friction. Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of Central America through today and southern Mexico through tomorrow. Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:45:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 15:22:10 GMT