Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to evolve from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley area. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will accompany these thunderstorms. Additional strong storms may produce sporadic hail and gusty winds across portions of southeast California central and southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains to southwest TN/northwest MS... The upper trough centered over Ontario and the Midwest will persist on Saturday, while shortwave ridging builds over the southern High Plains to the central Rockies. Southerly low-level flow beneath the upper ridge and to the south of a nearly-stationary surface front will support 60s F surface dewpoints across OK/TX into AR and vicinity. Cool midlevel temperatures will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, while heating ahead of the front aids in moderate destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will aid in organized thunderstorms capable of severe hail and strong gusts. Convection will increase in coverage as the cold front across the TX Panhandle and northern OK/AR begins to shift south during the late afternoon and evening hours with some severe potential continuing toward the Red River through the evening hours. ...Southeast CA into central/southern AZ... An upper low off the northern Baja Coast will move east to southwest AZ on Saturday, bringing a band of enhanced midlevel flow over the region. Surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will be in place across the region, while daytime heating combined with modestly steep midlevel lapse rates support MLCAPE values around 750-1250 J/kg. Effective shear values around 25 kt will support at least transient updraft organization. Forecast hodographs appear favorable for midlevel rotation and hail production. Steep low-level lapse rates also may aid in strong gusts. A few of the strongest storms may produce severe hail and gusts through the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 10/14/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL KANSAS... Some areal expansions were made to the eastern extent of the Elevated delineation, with no changes made to the rest of the fire weather highlights. This decision is supported by current surface observations, showing 25-40 percent RH values and spotty 15-20 mph winds in place from the central High Plains to points east of the MS River. Clear skies across the central and eastern CONUS will promote boundary-layer mixing through the afternoon as a 60+ kt 500 mb jet max rotates around the Great Lakes upper low and overspreads the Plains and OH/TN Valleys by afternoon peak heating, as suggested by 16Z mesoanalysis. As such, RH should lower into the 15-25 percent range over the central/eastern U.S., with widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds expected. 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds are also possible across the Plains as the strongest mid-level winds pass over the region, necessitating the maintenance of Critical highlights per latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 10/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across the central Plains with widespread Elevated conditions extending well into the Ohio River Valley. Early-morning surface observations show a diffuse cold front across the northern Plains/upper MS River Valley that will push southward into the central Plains and Midwest through the day. Increasing gradient winds ahead/along the front coupled with antecedent dry conditions will support widespread fire weather concerns. ...Central Plains... Despite overnight temperatures falling into the 30s across the Plains, a dry air mass (featuring dewpoint temperatures near the 10th percentile for mid-October) remains in place and is limiting overnight RH recovery. A persistent northwesterly flow regime along and ahead of the front will foster diurnal RH reductions well into the 15-25% range from southeast WY/northeast CO into central KS and northern OK this afternoon. Sustained winds near 15-25 mph appear likely with frequent gusts to 30-35 mph probable. Fuels across much of the region remain dry, but the fire weather threat may be greatest across central KS where drought conditions are most severe per recent drought/fuel analyses. ...Ohio River Valley... Warm and windy conditions are expected through the lower OH River Valley as a warm front lifts north through the day and establishes a modest low-level thermal ridge from southeast MO into IN. The combination of dry air advection from the southern Plains and diurnal warming/mixing will yield RH values into the 20-30% range by late afternoon with southwest winds near 15-20 mph (gusting to 30-35 mph at times). Fuels across this region are less receptive compared to the Plains after some rainfall in recent days; however, the Elevated risk area denotes where dry/breezy conditions will overlap with drier fuels within a substantial 14-day rainfall deficit. Localized critical conditions are possible, especially across the KY/IL/IN tri-state region, but should remain too spatially and temporally limited for additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon over south FL, ahead of a weak cold front sagging southward across the peninsula. Low and mid-level vertical shear is rather weak, precluding a more organized severe threat. Showers and the possibility of isolated thunderstorms will also be present this afternoon across parts of south TX, eastern New England, and parts of MI. Weak thermodynamic profiles will limit any severe risk. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/14/2022 Read more

It is difficult to get the needed fertilizer, due to the low level of the Mississippi River slowing the transport of cargo. Kansas Wheat (Manhattan, Kan.), Oct 12, 2022

Drought left pumpkins smaller than last year, according to the co-owner of a pumpkin patch. Siouxland Matters (Sioux City, Iowa), Oct. 13, 2022

The city of Magnolia has reached 60% of daily pumping capacity from its wells, triggering Stage 2 drought restrictions. Community Impact – Houston (Texas), Oct 13, 2022

Clostridium diseases are spreading among livestock amid drought in East Texas. One veterinarian said that he's seeing cases among cattle, sheep and goats daily. A vaccine can protect livestock against the bacteria and avoid fatal illness. A shot of penicillin may also keep the animal alive if disease is caught early enough. KTRE-TV ABC 9 (Lufkin, Texas), Oct 13, 2022

The Biden administration announced that it intends to pay Colorado River water users to leave water in Lake Mead through $4 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act. Applicants can receive a fixed amount of money per acre-foot of water, depending on how long they can agree to leave the water in Lake Mead. Some stakeholders were considering lowering their water use by hundreds of thousands of acre-feet annually. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct. 12, 2022

Drought curbed pumpkin size at farms in western Massachusetts. WWLP-22 News (Chicopee, Mass.), Oct 8, 2022

Coalinga could run out of water by December. Supplying the town with water from elsewhere will be very costly. Officials estimated that water purchased from private vendors would drive up the cost from $133,000 to $1.3 million for the same amount of water. KSEE-TV NBC 24 Fresno (Calif.), Oct. 13, 2022

In August, 618 water waste complaints came into the MyLA311 system, marking a record number of contacts. This also makes the fifth month that a monthly record has been set for MyLA311 water waste calls. Crosstown (Los Angeles, Calif.), Oct 13, 2022

Texas has an unusually high number of aphids this year, along with fewer predators of the insects, both due to drought. The aphids are secreting a sticky residue called honeydew that is water soluble and will wash away with rain. The Dallas Morning News (Texas), Oct 12, 2022

In Nashville, drought has affected vegetation and wildlife. Trees stopped producing chlorophyll early and were dropping dry leaves. Wildflowers ceased to bloom, mosquitoes vanished, and wildlife flocked to the birdbaths. The organic vegetable garden was abandoned. Nashville received 0.01 inches of rain in the past 30 days, according to the NWS. Armadillos have also come out during the day to forage amid drought, although the creatures are normally nocturnal. A sunken car was discovered in Sevier Lake in Shelby Park on Oct. 12. WPLN-FM (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 11, 2022

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... The primary change to the Outlook was to expand the Elevated highlights eastward across portions of the Lower/Middle MS Valley and northeastward across parts of the TN and OH Valleys. Through this corridor, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30 mph) has increased. While many of these areas have received rainfall over the last 72 hours, the higher totals have generally been focused both north and south of the expanded highlights. Therefore, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread, especially considering ongoing drought conditions. In addition, locally critical conditions (sustained surface winds of 20 mph amid 20 percent RH) will be possible over far western KY and far southeastern MO during peak heating. However, these conditions look too brief and localized for a Critical area at this time. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... On Friday, the upper-level low will swing southward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, this will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the northern/central Plains. Cold air will be present beneath this upper low, but temperatures will warm with west/southward extent. Therefore, relative humidity will drop into the 20s across central Nebraska and into the teens across southeast Wyoming into southwest Nebraska, northeast Colorado and much of Kansas. In this region, winds are expected to be 20 to 25 mph due to the tight pressure gradient and strong mid-level flow. ERC values in this region are mostly above the 90th percentile and therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 13 17:57:01 UTC 2022.

462
ABPZ20 KNHC 131725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mean upper level trough will persist over the eastern U.S. on Friday, with an upper low and embedded shortwave trough pivoting east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Another upper low off the southern CA coast will meander southward toward northern Baja. between these two systems, shortwave upper ridging will be centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across New England with the southern extent of the front arcing across the western Atlantic offshore from the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coasts and into northern/central FL. Surface high pressure behind the front across the Southeast, and weak lee troughing over the southern High Plains will result in southerly flow across the Southern Plains. Gulf moisture will return northward toward across much of TX into far southern OK. This warm advection regime may result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of the TX coast, but negligible large-scale forcing will limit thunderstorm activity further north across TX/southern OK despite increasing moisture. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the surface front across New England, but a cool boundary-layer and limited instability will preclude severe potential. Additional isolated lightning flashes are possible across south FL, but weak forcing and poor lapse rates/modest shear will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 10/13/2022 Read more

Supplemental water has been provided for Tule elk at Point Reyes National Seashore for the second straight year. Supplemental water systems were reactivated and were being maintained by seashore staff until rain begins again this fall and winter. The first time that water was provided for the Tomales Point Tule Elk Reserve was in June 2021 when unprecedented and extreme drought prompted the National Park Service to bring water for the elk. National Parks Traveler (Park City, Utah), Oct 13, 2022

MD 1870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PA/NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Areas affected...Central PA/NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131657Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with low-topped convection this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has gradually consolidated over the past few hours along an eastward-moving cold front across parts of central PA/NY, with peak wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph range thus far. Buoyancy will remain quite limited, but SBCAPE may increase into the 200-400 J/kg range where temperatures can rise into the mid/upper 60s F, and convection is likely to be sustained along the front through the remainder of the afternoon. The strongest low-level flow will likely remain displaced somewhat east of the front, in association with a 50+ kt low-level jet. However, low-level flow/shear will still be sufficient for isolated wind-damage potential in association with any small bowing segments or mesovortices along the frontal band, especially if pockets of slightly stronger heating/destabilization can materialize in advance of the front. At this time, the threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated for watch issuance. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40237806 41407760 43187675 44327615 44977502 44957386 43657447 42237541 40437656 39817688 39827737 39757828 40237806 Read more