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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... The forecast generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Outlook based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Critical highlights were expanded slightly southeastward into the Middle MS Valley, where minimal rainfall accumulations over the last 72 hours should support at least modestly receptive fuels given areas of moderate to extreme drought. Surface observations across this area already show 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH. And, continued boundary-layer mixing into enhanced dry air aloft per low-level water vapor imagery and 12Z observed soundings should foster additional RH reductions this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Very strong northwesterly flow is expected across much of the northern and central Plains. These strong winds will come as a result of the tightening pressure gradient and deep vertical mixing beneath the very strong mid-level flow. Widespread relative humidity in the teens is expected across the eastern half of the northern and central Plains. However, these dry and breezy conditions will also persist into portions of Ohio and Missouri. However, recent moderate to heavy rainfall has limited fuel receptiveness across these regions. Therefore, have kept the Critical delineation farther west. Some isolated areas may have received less precipitation and therefore may have receptive fuels. Given the strength of the winds and the dryness, have kept an Elevated delineation across this region to cover the threat for some large fire growth. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts are also possible across a portion of coastal Texas. Threats in both areas are most likely during the afternoon to early evening. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States... Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 90+ mid level jet max tracking across the mid-MS Valley. Ahead of the upper system, a surface cold front extends from western NY/PA southward into GA/AL. As the cold front and jet max track eastward, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the front. The pre-frontal air mass is quite cloudy, with limited potential for afternoon destabilization. Nevertheless, frontal forcing and strong winds aloft will help to induce a few low-topped but fast-moving bowing structures. Present indications are that the overall severe threat will be marginal, but locally damaging wind gusts may occur with the stronger or more organized line segments. An isolated brief tornado is also possible along the line this afternoon. ...Texas Gulf Coast... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over coastal TX, where dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon highs will rise into the lower 90s. A weak surface cold front will sag into this environment later this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic parameters and deep layer shear for a rotating storm or two capable of hail. However, low-level winds are weak and overall forcing is limited. This is expected to keep the severe risk marginal. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/13/2022 Read more

Hay production in the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region this summer was halved by heat and drought, and the hay-growing season ends in November. Some ranchers are selling cattle or buying feed. The region has not received rain since Sept. 10. KTBS (Shreveport, La.), Oct 13, 2022

The Rock Rabbit fire is located in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness approximately 4.5 miles to the northeast of Big Creek. It is at 38.5 acres and is a result of lightning on August 22, 2022. No visible smoke has been noted on this fire for several days.  Fire managers continue to patrol the area.  There are no area or trail closures associated with this fire.  Structure protection has been removed from the Rock Rabbit Fire Lookout

The Payette National Forest will be conducting multiple prescribed fires this fall that may take place anytime from late September to early November when the right weather conditions exist to ensure the safety of the burns and to accomplish resource objectives.The decision to ignite a prescribed fire depends on favorable weather conditions and the need to reduce smoke effects as much as possible.  While smoke from prescribed fires is much less than that from a typical wildfire, if smoke concentrations approach air quality standards ignition will be delayed until air quality improves.  While smoke from prescribed fires usually dissipates within a few days, residual smoke may be visible for up to 2 weeks in some cases.Prescribed fire is an important forest management tool that helps us protect communities by reducing surface fuels, increasing the height of the tree canopy, reducing small tree densities, and promoting fire resilient tree species.The risk of high-severity wildfire fire...

A farmer near Fayetteville irrigated more heavily to keep his fruits and pumpkins alive this year during drought. The increased irrigation doubled his operational costs, and he could bear only so much of it and had to put some of the price increase on customers. He was grateful that his customers were willing to pay higher prices for his produce. Some larger farms could not pay for the extra water and opted to use their corn crop for cattle feed instead. KNWA-TV & FOX 24 (Fayetteville, Ark.), Oct 12, 2022

Drought continues to affect farmers in southeast Missouri as hay thefts take place. Some farmers have set up trail cameras to monitor their valuable hay as prices for it rise and supplies are not abundant. Springs were running dry that did not go dry during the 2012 drought. New water lines have been installed to bring water to livestock. KAIT-TV ABC 8 Jonesboro (Ark.), Oct 11, 2022

740
ABPZ20 KNHC 121750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Any
development of this system over the next few days is likely to be
slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity
to land. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward near the southern coast of Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 12 17:51:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 12 17:51:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A band of relatively low-topped thunderstorms are forecast to move across portions of the eastern U.S. east of the Appalachians. A stronger afternoon storm or two may produce strong/gusty winds or a brief tornado from the Catskills vicinity southward across central Virginia. ...Synopsis... A seasonally strong upper low and attendant trough will be in place across western Ontario and extend southward across much of the central U.S. The upper trough will slowly pivot eastward toward the Appalachians during the period, bring strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow over the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes will pivot beneath the upper low. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from western NY/PA into the central Appalachians and southwestward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. The front will progress eastward through the period, oriented from western New England, southward to the offshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast before arcing westward across northern FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. A Marginal risk of severe storms is expected ahead of the front from parts of southern NY into eastern VA/NC. ...Portions of NY into VA/NC... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front Thursday morning across western NY/PA into eastern OH, with additional precipitation occurring in the warm advection regime from eastern PA toward the Chesapeake/coastal VA/NC. Destabilization will be limited by precipitation and cloud cover, especially across NY/PA. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will aid in the development of an organized line of low-topped convection along the cold front. A few strong gusts may accompany this line of storms. With southward extent into eastern VA and the Chesapeake Bay/northeast NC vicinity, stronger destabilization is expected where at least filtered heating amid 60s F dewpoints should result in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A mix of thunderstorm clusters and more discrete cells are possible across this area. Backed low-level flow and will contribute to enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs, and a few rotating storms are possible. Isolated strong gusts and/or a brief tornado will be possible with activity across southern portions of the Marginal risk area. ..Leitman.. 10/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms producing a couple brief tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible across parts of the Mid-South and the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South to Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys... A band of storms are ongoing across northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri at late morning ahead of/near an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Modest low-level moistening continues to occur (50s to lower 60s F surface dewpoints) immediately ahead of this convection across the Mid-South, with ample insolation also occurring within the warm sector. This should lead an increase in both coverage and intensity of storms through the afternoon. A QLCS should evolve from eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi into Tennessee, with additional and somewhat more discrete development anticipated farther south/southwest toward the ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail are expected to be the most common/probable hazards, but a couple of brief tornadoes might also occur. ...Kentucky/Ohio... Some clearing is noted in visible satellite imagery as of late morning across western/middle Tennessee into Kentucky, but uncertainties linger regarding the extent/degree of surface-based destabilization later today. Will maintain low severe probabilities across the region as even modest destabilization coupled with adequate low-level hodograph curvature could support a supercell or two capable of a brief tornado and/or locally damaging winds. ...Southeast including Alabama/southern Georgia... Persistent warm advection in conjunction with an effective/850 mb west-east front will likely maintain slow-eastward-progressive scattered thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating and some thinning of cloud cover could allow some of these storms to become more surface based this afternoon, with locally damaging winds a possibility aside from severe hail. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... Minor adjustments were made with the forecast remaining largely on track. The Critical risk area was expanded into south-central South Dakota where low relative humidity and strong winds will likely lead to more active fire behavior in ongoing fires. Surface observations show sustained winds of 20+ mph and gusts up to 45 mph across portions of the Dakotas. Expect warming and drying through the day, as mid-level cloud cover decreases and boundary-layer deepening/mixing allows relative humidity to decrease to around 20-25 percent. VWP profiles show 50+ mph winds above the surface, which will likely lead to a further increase in the winds as the boundary layer deepens through the afternoon. The Elevated risk was extended southward into Kansas to account for areas where relative humidity may approach 20-25 percent with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. Further east, similar conditions will occur, but rainfall in the last 24 hours may have made fuels less receptive. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Thornton/Weinman.. 10/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... Very strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Plains today as a mid-level trough amplifies. Beneath the strongest mid-level jet streak, winds of 30 to 35 mph are expected at the surface. Relative humidity will drop into the upper teens from far northeast Montana across western North Dakota and into northern South Dakota. Elsewhere, relative humidity will likely be too high to warrant a critical delineation. Farther south, across central and eastern Nebraska, some critical conditions may also develop. However, Tuesday night thunderstorms brought some rainfall to this region and therefore, fuels will likely not be as receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Horse fire located approximately 5½ miles northwest of Corn Creek on the North Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness.  It was reported on September 8, 2022, at 1306 MDT. The fire is burning in lodgepole, fir, and snags.  The fire is being managed under a point protection strategy.  Fire managers are assessing values at risk in the vicinity of the fire and are establishing management action points to trigger specified actions to protect those values. 

 The Owl Fire is 100% Contained.  The page will be updated if conditions

The lightning fire is located approximately four (4) miles northeast of the confluence of Big Creek and the Middle Fork of the Salmon River in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness on the North Fork Ranger District. The fire is burning in spruce and fir is located in steep, rugged terrain.Risk to responders and public safety are the top priorities for the Wolf Fang Fire. Due to the inaccessibility of the terrain and snag hazards, a combination of the Middle Fork Peak lookout, a remote camera, and aviation are assessing the fire daily.

Kansas wheat growers were planting into dry soil. In the USDA’s Small Grains 2022 Summary released on September 30, USDA slashed Kansas wheat production to 244.2 million bushels, compared with 364 million bushels in 2021. Due to the persistent drought, USDA reported 700,000 acres were planted to wheat, but not harvested, and yields fell to an average of 37 bushels per acre, well below 52 bushels per acre in 2021 and 45 bushels per acre in 2020. Kansas Wheat (Manhattan, Kan.), Oct 12, 2022 The difficult choice for Kansas winter wheat growers: wait for moisture or plant into very dry soil and hope for rain? About 50% of Kansas wheat has been planted, per the Kansas Farm Bureau. But, due to drought, only 19% of the wheat has emerged. And if a late crop manages to survive a cold winter, the yield can be reduced by up to 35%. KAKE ABC 10 Wichita (Kan.), Oct 11, 2022

Extremely dry weather caused water mains to break in Rogers County. Mechanical issues at the water treatment plant and breaks in two different waterlines left some customers with low water pressure and others with no water at all. Water conservation is urged. KOTV-TV CBS 6 Tulsa (Okla.), Oct 11, 2022

The lack of rain led several Kentucky and southern Indiana counties to issue burn bans to avoid more fire activity and the spread of fires. Washington, Scott and Clark counties in southern Indiana were under burn bans, while 15 western counties had burn bans, according to KY.gov. WDRB Louisville (Ky.) Oct 11, 2022

The Lee Creek Reservoir boat ramp closed on Sept. 14, due to the low water level, but the ramp at the dam tailwaters remained open. Fort Smith Southwest Times Record (Ark.), Oct 11, 2022